January: Seasonal Temps To End The Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Portastorm
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Location: Southwest Austin/Oak Hill, TX
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/08/13 1626Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES E 1615Z GG/LP
.
LOCATION...LOUISIANA...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT... MOD/HVY RAIN EVENT
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SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS... LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
UL LOW AND STG WRAP AROUND JET NOSING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS SUPPORTING NEW
CONVECTIVE GROWTH IN CENTRAL TEXAS. RECENT IR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS CLOUD
TOP COOLING IN THE VIC OF REAL, BANDERA, AND KERR COUNTIES LOCATED ALONG
WHAT APPEARS IN WV TO BE A MIDLEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE/LINE EXTENDING
SW TO NE FROM MEXICO THRU SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND IS HAS ACTED AS A
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER WITHIN THE DRY SLOT. CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A 1.25"-1.5" PW MOISTURE PLUME PER SATELLITE BLENDED TPW BEING FEED
BY 30-40 KT SLY LLJ. GIVEN CLD TOP TEMPS AND PWS RAIN RATES COULD BE
ESTIMATED A BIT HIGHER BUT DRY AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS LOWERS RATES TO AROUND
1"/HR...AND GIVEN CELL MOTIONS TOTALS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO LESS THAN 1"

FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WITH RATES OF 1.5-2.0"/HR
IS MOVING ACROSS THE TX/LA BOARDER SUPPORTED BY SFC MST CONVERGENCE FROM
ELY AND SELY FLOW ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER ITS MOVEMENT IS BEGINNING
TO OUTRUN UL SUPPORT AND CLDS HAVE BEGUN TO GLACIATE IN VISIBLE/WARM
IN IR. STILL BLENDED TPW SHOWS DEEP SOUTHERLY MOISTURE PLUME ALONG THE
MEXICAN GULF COAST CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH VALUES STARTING TO REACH
1.75" AND GREATER NEAR BRO. HEIGHT FALLS DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF IN MEXICO CONTINUE TO INCREASE SFC EASTERLIES ACROSS
LAND LENDING TO EXCELLENT SFC/LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FOR NEW
CONVECTION FOCUSED AT THE AXIS OF THE TPW PLUME JUST OFF BRO TO CRP BUT
ALSO WEAKLY ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE TX COAST INTO LA.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1630-0000Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK... ACROSS S CENT TX... A LOBE OF VORTICITY IS CURRENTLY
BEING SHED FROM THE MAIN UL ACROSS THE BIG BEND OF TX... IN A FEW
HOURS... THIS SUPPORT CONTINUES TO ROTATES OUT AND ADD TO INSTABILITY
ALOFT WITH SOME CAA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED ML CONVERGENCE LINE LIKELY LEADING TO UPSTREAM
CONVECTIVE GROWTH POTENTIALLY ORIENTING ALONG THE CELL MOTION FOR
SOME TRAINING LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL EWX CWA.... THIS COULD
LEAD TO A NARROW SWATH OF HIGH TOTALS OF 2-3" POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED FF
THREAT.... HOWEVER ONE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NEAR
BRO WILL ROB BEST MST CONVERGENCE.

FURTHER SOUTH/EAST...EXPECT SFC LOW TO DEEPEN ALONG TX COAST WITH
WARM/STNY FRONT TO CONTINUE TO FILL IN WITH COLD DEEP CONVECTION
ONLY LIFTING SLIGHTLY INTO COASTAL COUNTIES OF TX FROM CRP TO HOU.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING AND WITH DEEPER MST
PROFILE...MUCH MORE PROLIFIC WITH A LARGE SWATH OF 1.5" LIKELY AND
ISOALTED 3-4" TOTALS POSSIBLE.
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Kludge
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Location: Bedias, Texas
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redneckweather wrote:Dear Paul, you were wanting a VERY detailed explanation on what is going to happen today and into tomorrow. This guy sums everything up perfectly for you so you don't have to ask anymore questions. Your welcome. 8-)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQf1RQA-GjA
Paul may still desire some further interpretation after viewing that video. In a related story, someone was asking where AZ was. I've often wondered what someone who types in all caps sounds like in person.

<cough>

GOOD LUCK
unome
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Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

Texas Pirate

Looks like its all going into the GOM...
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gocuse22
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Thats a disturbance forming. The deeper gulf moisture and the warm front are still down in S TX. Once both of those surge northward, Game time.
Texas Pirate

Thanks gocuse.
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cristina99
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Location: The Woodlands / Spring / Conroe
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Let's be careful out there! I know once I get home I am going to be on storm watch - and reading this forum. Think I'll just hunker down in bed with my lap top! :(

Once this is passed, can we talk about the impending / rumored winter weather coming our way? Or not coming our way. Need to get my soups ready! :D
Andrew
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12z gfs keeps the stronger storms off the coast while the Canadian brings it up central Texas. At this point it is anybody's game but with the recent trends I would tend to side with the Canadian a little on this one. Also for anyone interested the longer range gets interesting....
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TxLady
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Location: New Waverly, Walker Co., TX
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It has been raining here, with varying intensity, since about midnight. I was kind of surprised that the rain started so early, last night/this morning. Just had a pretty heavy band move through, with some thunder.
vci_guy2003
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What do longer range models show?
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