January: Seasonal Temps To End The Month

[Andrew]

Shifted a little farther north:

SPC AC 081257

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 AM CST TUE JAN 08 2013

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SRN AND ERN TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WLYS...WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
FEATURES...WILL REMAIN DISPLACED N OF ITS SEASONAL NORM...EXTENDING
ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES. MEANWHILE...IN THE SRN STREAM...UPR
LOW NOW OVER NW MEXICO/SONORA SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY ESE TODAY...AND
MORE EWD TNGT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REACH NW CHIHUAHUA BY EVE AND THE
BIG BEND REGION EARLY WED...WITH ANY APPRECIABLE CONUS TSTM THREAT
THROUGH THE PERIOD LIKELY BEING CONFINED TO AREAS IN THE ERN AND SRN
QUADRANTS OF THE LOW.

AT LWR LVLS...CSTL FRONTOGENESIS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE AFTN ALONG
THE TX GULF CST...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY FAVORABLE UPR DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH HI-LVL JET STREAK NOW CROSSING THE REGION.
HOWEVER...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD OVERSPREAD CSTL TX
TNGT/EARLY WED...AHEAD OF LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPR LOW.

...S CNTRL TX E/ENE TO THE E TX GULF CST TODAY/TNGT...
RECENT INCREASE IN TSTMS ALONG THE TX GULF CSTL PLN APPEARS TO BE
TIED TO LOW-LVL UPLIFT/WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT ALONG CSTL
FRONTOGENESIS ZONE. THE INLAND STORMS LIKELY ARE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
AND SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH THIS AFTN AS N TO NELY LOW-LVL
FLOW/SHALLOW CAA W OF THE BOUNDARY STYMIES WWD ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
ISOLD STORMS MAY...HOWEVER...BECOME NEARLY SFC-BASED JUST OFF THE
MIDDLE AND UPR TX GULF CST THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTN. ENHANCED
LOW-LVL SHEAR IN THIS REGION...AND THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT DEEP
SHEAR FOR STORM ROTATION...MAY YIELD A WATERSPOUT OR TWO.
OTHERWISE...MID-LVL LAPSE RATES SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK...AND DEEP
FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD DIMINISH BY AFTN AS UPR HEIGHT CONTOURS
BECOME MORE ANTICYCLONIC. THUS...ANY OVERALL SVR RISK WITH THE
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK/ISOLD.

OTHER STORMS...LIKELY IN THE FORM OF LOOSELY-ORGANIZED SHORT
BAND/SMALL CLUSTERS...SHOULD FORM LATE THIS AFTN INTO TNGT FROM
CNTRL AND S CNTRL PARTS OF TX SSW INTO NRN CHIHUAHUA. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE FOSTERED BY A COMBINATION OF PERSISTENT LWR-LVL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT BENEATH STRENGTHENING FORCING FOR ASCENT ON LEADING EDGE
OF UPR LOW. AMPLE /40-50 KT/ SSWLY DEEP SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO
SUPPORT PERSISTENT CELLS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. BUT MID-LVL LAPSE
LIKELY WILL REMAIN WEAK GIVEN CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONFIGURATION OF
THE UPR LOW...AND CLOUDS LIKELY WILL OFFSET NEAR-SFC
DESTABILIZATION. THESE FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SVR
RISK...ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SMALL BOWS AND/OR STORM
INTERACTIONS/PRECIP LOADING TO YIELD LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE TORNADOES AS THE ACTIVITY SPREADS E TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND SRN
TX GULF CST LATER IN THE PERIOD.

..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 01/08/2013

[unome]

Mesoscale Discussion http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0002.html




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0002
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0702 AM CST TUE JAN 08 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...UPPER TX COAST

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 081302Z - 081430Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A NEAR-SHORE SEVERE/WATERSPOUT POTENTIAL COULD OCCUR ALONG
THE UPPER TX COAST THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH ANY SUCH POTENTIAL SHOULD
REMAIN VERY ISOLATED /AND OF SHORT DURATION/ THIS MORNING. NO WATCH
IS ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY /SINCE 1230Z/ IS INDICATIVE OF A
STORM WITH UPDRAFT ROTATION JUST OFF THE UPPER TX COAST...SOUTHWEST
OF THE FREEPORT TX VICINITY AS OF 1250Z. THIS TSTM IS LIKELY
OCCURRING VERY NEAR/PERHAPS JUST A BIT NORTH OF A SHARPENING WARM
FRONT THAT DEMARCATES RELATIVELY COOL CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES
INLAND AND A MORE MOISTURE-RICH AIR MASS /60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/
OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE LOW-LEVEL/DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS PER A LONG-CURVING HODOGRAPH PER
THE HOUSTON WSR-88D VWP...THIS STORM SHOULD TEND TO REMAIN OFFSHORE
FAVORING THE NEARLY-STALLED SURFACE BOUNDARY AND/OR BECOME
INCREASINGLY ELEVATED TOWARD THE COAST. WHILE A NEAR-SHORE SEVERE
POTENTIAL CANNOT BE RULED OUT INCLUDING THE POSSIBILITY OF
WATERSPOUTS...IT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL/ISOLATED.

..GUYER/CORFIDI.. 01/08/2013


ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

LAT...LON 28429543 28919559 29319523 29739486 29779414 29309408
28429543

[Andrew]

Mesoscale analysis matches well with frontogenesis currently as dew points continue to rise.

[tireman4]

This will be an interesting day. Please take precaution out there. Do not be in a rush to get home after you clock out from work. Take your time and you will get there. ( I am telling myself this too...lol)

[unome]

can anyone tell me what the difference is between the stations on these 2 rain mapping sites ?

CoCoRaHS http://data.cocorahs.org/cocorahs/maps/

Harris Co FWS http://www.harriscountyfws.org/

[redneckweather]

Dear Paul, you were wanting a VERY detailed explanation on what is going to happen today and into tomorrow. This guy sums everything up perfectly for you so you don't have to ask anymore questions. Your welcome.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQf1RQA-GjA

[ticka1]

Dear Paul, you were wanting a VERY detailed explanation on what is going to happen today and into tomorrow. This guy sums everything up perfectly for you so you don't have to ask anymore questions. Your welcome.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQf1RQA-GjA

Redneckweather for those of us that can't get youtube at work - what does it say?

[vci_guy2003]

Lmao, that's the most informative video about the weather I have ever seen, thank you son

[vci_guy2003]

Is that guy a member on this forum ? If so, please reveal

[MontgomeryCoWx]

It's a great day. Much needed rain is on the way and the SEC has 7 straight titles with 5 in the Top 10 and 3 in the Top 5.

Party on! Lets bring some Winter Weather to Houston in the next 3 weeks and it will have been a great start to 2013!

[Portastorm]

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 01/08/13 1626Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES E 1615Z GG/LP
.
LOCATION...LOUISIANA...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...BRO...SJT...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT... MOD/HVY RAIN EVENT
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS... LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
UL LOW AND STG WRAP AROUND JET NOSING INTO CENTRAL TEXAS SUPPORTING NEW
CONVECTIVE GROWTH IN CENTRAL TEXAS. RECENT IR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS CLOUD
TOP COOLING IN THE VIC OF REAL, BANDERA, AND KERR COUNTIES LOCATED ALONG
WHAT APPEARS IN WV TO BE A MIDLEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE/LINE EXTENDING
SW TO NE FROM MEXICO THRU SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...AND IS HAS ACTED AS A
CONVECTIVE TRIGGER WITHIN THE DRY SLOT. CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A 1.25"-1.5" PW MOISTURE PLUME PER SATELLITE BLENDED TPW BEING FEED
BY 30-40 KT SLY LLJ. GIVEN CLD TOP TEMPS AND PWS RAIN RATES COULD BE
ESTIMATED A BIT HIGHER BUT DRY AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS LOWERS RATES TO AROUND
1"/HR...AND GIVEN CELL MOTIONS TOTALS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO LESS THAN 1"

FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WITH RATES OF 1.5-2.0"/HR
IS MOVING ACROSS THE TX/LA BOARDER SUPPORTED BY SFC MST CONVERGENCE FROM
ELY AND SELY FLOW ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER ITS MOVEMENT IS BEGINNING
TO OUTRUN UL SUPPORT AND CLDS HAVE BEGUN TO GLACIATE IN VISIBLE/WARM
IN IR. STILL BLENDED TPW SHOWS DEEP SOUTHERLY MOISTURE PLUME ALONG THE
MEXICAN GULF COAST CONTINUES TO INCREASE WITH VALUES STARTING TO REACH
1.75" AND GREATER NEAR BRO. HEIGHT FALLS DUE TO THE APPROACH OF THE
UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF IN MEXICO CONTINUE TO INCREASE SFC EASTERLIES ACROSS
LAND LENDING TO EXCELLENT SFC/LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING FOR NEW
CONVECTION FOCUSED AT THE AXIS OF THE TPW PLUME JUST OFF BRO TO CRP BUT
ALSO WEAKLY ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE TX COAST INTO LA.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT AREA
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY
10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1630-0000Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK... ACROSS S CENT TX... A LOBE OF VORTICITY IS CURRENTLY
BEING SHED FROM THE MAIN UL ACROSS THE BIG BEND OF TX... IN A FEW
HOURS... THIS SUPPORT CONTINUES TO ROTATES OUT AND ADD TO INSTABILITY
ALOFT WITH SOME CAA. THIS WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED ML CONVERGENCE LINE LIKELY LEADING TO UPSTREAM
CONVECTIVE GROWTH POTENTIALLY ORIENTING ALONG THE CELL MOTION FOR
SOME TRAINING LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL EWX CWA.... THIS COULD
LEAD TO A NARROW SWATH OF HIGH TOTALS OF 2-3" POSSIBLE FOR ISOLATED FF
THREAT.... HOWEVER ONE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IF CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NEAR
BRO WILL ROB BEST MST CONVERGENCE.

FURTHER SOUTH/EAST...EXPECT SFC LOW TO DEEPEN ALONG TX COAST WITH
WARM/STNY FRONT TO CONTINUE TO FILL IN WITH COLD DEEP CONVECTION
ONLY LIFTING SLIGHTLY INTO COASTAL COUNTIES OF TX FROM CRP TO HOU.
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE SLOW MOVING OR TRAINING AND WITH DEEPER MST
PROFILE...MUCH MORE PROLIFIC WITH A LARGE SWATH OF 1.5" LIKELY AND
ISOALTED 3-4" TOTALS POSSIBLE.

[Kludge]

Dear Paul, you were wanting a VERY detailed explanation on what is going to happen today and into tomorrow. This guy sums everything up perfectly for you so you don't have to ask anymore questions. Your welcome.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQf1RQA-GjA

Paul may still desire some further interpretation after viewing that video. In a related story, someone was asking where AZ was. I've often wondered what someone who types in all caps sounds like in person.

<cough>

GOOD LUCK

[unome]

echo tops from NMQ: http://nmq.ou.edu/



TCEQ Texas large view http://www.tceq.texas.gov/assets/public ... atest.jpeg

[Texas Pirate]

Looks like its all going into the GOM...

[gocuse22]

Thats a disturbance forming. The deeper gulf moisture and the warm front are still down in S TX. Once both of those surge northward, Game time.

[Texas Pirate]

Thanks gocuse.

[cristina99]

Let's be careful out there! I know once I get home I am going to be on storm watch - and reading this forum. Think I'll just hunker down in bed with my lap top!

Once this is passed, can we talk about the impending / rumored winter weather coming our way? Or not coming our way. Need to get my soups ready!

[Andrew]

12z gfs keeps the stronger storms off the coast while the Canadian brings it up central Texas. At this point it is anybody's game but with the recent trends I would tend to side with the Canadian a little on this one. Also for anyone interested the longer range gets interesting....

[TxLady]

It has been raining here, with varying intensity, since about midnight. I was kind of surprised that the rain started so early, last night/this morning. Just had a pretty heavy band move through, with some thunder.

[vci_guy2003]

What do longer range models show?