January: Seasonal Temps To End The Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Kludge
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biggerbyte wrote:
Paul Robison wrote:1. Am from West Virginia, the mountain state.

2. I apologize for my curiosity. I will not come back to this forum. Goodbye!

You are welcome here as far as I am concerned. If you are offended by anyone, there is always the ignore feature.
Image

bye.
jeff
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I will post my own e-mail this time....

Significant heavy rainfall event increasingly likely on Tuesday-Wednesday with threat for flooding.

Flash Flood Watch in effect for all SE TX counties through Wednesday evening.

Factors continue to come together to support a prolonged period of excessive rainfall from Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday evening. Coastal warm front will approach the coast on Tuesday morning and slow down as large scale lift arrives from the west yielding the formation of strong showers and thunderstorms along and north of this boundary. Upper level jet is forecast to split apart across the region favoring strong upper level divergence within a very moist air mass with moisture levels near the maximum values for early January. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will expand throughout the day across the region.

Warm front will attempt to progress inland Tuesday evening, but this is suspect as widespread rain north of the boundary may help lock it in place. Training heavy to excessive rainfall to continue along and north of the boundary. With moisture levels very high expect rainfall rates of 1-3 inches per hour in the stronger storms.

On Wednesday the warm front may reach into our northern counties while a cool front slowly approaches from the west with a slow moving line of strong to severe thunderstorms. Storms may also continue to develop in the warm sector and train across the area.

Amounts:
Models are really hammering the area with 4-6 inches of rainfall, but differ on their placement with two models favoring the NW ½ of the region, one the southern ½ of the region and the other toward the LA/TX state line. The heaviest rainfall will occur along and north of the warm front and how long this front takes to move northward will determine the areas at greatest risk. If the boundary lingers near the coast for an extended period of time the heaviest rains will fall along the US 59 corridor. It is just nearly impossible to determine where the heaviest rainfall axis will reside until it has developed. It appears the best upper level divergence is aimed at our NW counties, but models may be too extensive with convection in this region especially if a large storm cluster develops closer to the coast and helps “rob” the inflowing moisture.

Will continue with widespread amounts of 2-4 inches with isolated totals of 5-7 inches. Short term rainfall rates will near or exceed 1 and 3 hour flash flood guidance so some significant run-off is likely resulting in major rises on area watersheds. Street flooding and ponding is likely.

There could be some serious issues for the Wednesday morning commute depending on if the axis of heavy rainfall sets up over the urban areas Tuesday night.

Residents are urged to review their flood safety measures and remember to never drive into high water….Turn Around Don’t Drown!
jeff
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After reveiwing the WGRFC contingency forecast this afternoon with basin average amounts of 4.0 inches it appears to tipping point from minor flooding to when things are going to go really bad is between 4 and 5 inches.

We are trying out a new forecasting model for tropical cyclones with this event whcih couples ET surge and HPC QPF to producing hydrographs on the Harris County bayous...looks promising for our next hurricane event.

ET surge is showing a 1.5-2.0 foot water level rise due to strong ESE winds piling the water into the mouth of the Houston Ship Channel
jeff
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Showing some of the expected gravity of this event HGX is holding a partners conference call at 1000am Tuesday...rare for a non-tropical threat
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C2G
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Paul Robison wrote:"Someone could be trolling...."

No, I am not trolling. But I have seen damage from such storm systems that rival, sometimes even surpass damage done by legendary hurricanes. I personally believe that the Houston area will share the fate of Joplin, Mo., not too many years ago.
What in the world? :lol: :roll:
I don't see Houston getting an EF-5 tornado in the near future. We did have an EF-4 in November of 1992 in Channelview, but major tornadoes are few and far between around here. We're more likely to get EF-0 or 1's.
Biggest threat will be flooding, and evacuating "drivings" the last thing you want to do.
We won't have Biblical floods to rival Claudette of 79 or Allison of 01, so this evacuation idea is over-kill.

Anyway, I agree with Ed. Cold without snow or sleet is miserable. Give me those hot and muggy days over that crud.
TexasBreeze
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
850 PM CST MON JAN 7 2013

.UPDATE... UPDATED GRAPHICASTS WITH THIS AFTERNOON`S MM BRIEFING OUT ON OUR WEB PAGE COMMUNICATING LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY`S SEVERE WEATHER THREAT(S). THIS EVENING`S LOWERING PRESSURES OVER CHIHUAHUA MEXICO IS THE BEGINNING OF WHAT WILL BE A VERY ACTIVE COUPLE OF MID-WEEK DAYS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS. THIS VERY ADVERTISED EVENT IS STILL FORECAST TO COME TO FRUITION BEGINNING TOMORROW AS A WARM FRONT SLIDES UP FROM THE COASTAL BEND. A VERY MOISTURE-RICH AIR MASS WILL ENVELOP THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAT...IN TANDEM WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL SHEAR...WILL PROVIDE THE (THERMO)DYNAMICS FOR A HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE WIND/TORNADO SITUATION. THERE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN GOOD TURNING (BACKING) OF THE LOWER 3KM WINDS LEADING TO HIGHER HELICITIES ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOMORROW. THIS INDICATES A MODEST POTENTIAL FOR EITHER STRONG CELLS DISPLAYING ROTATING UPDRAFT STRUCTURE...COULD LEAD TO SUPERCELL ACTIVITY WITH A ISOLATED TORNADO MENTION. THE MAIN THREAT STILL REMAINS HIGH RAINFALL LEADING TO FLOODING. THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING AS WE FALL WITHIN THE 24 HOUR WINDOW OF THIS THREAT. TRAINING CELLS...EITHER IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SCHEME TOMORROW OR AHEAD OF THE EVENTUAL COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY...WILL CREATE AVERAGE AREAWIDE 3 TO 5 INCHES (WITH LOCALLY 5 TO 7 INCH AMOUNTS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION). DARK HOUR SEVERE WEATHER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING ONLY HEIGHTENS THE NEED FOR STRESSING THIS FLOODING THREAT. 31
biggerbyte
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Agreeing with Jeff.. If we get said warm front north of the area, then we will increase the storm threat as thing destabilize a bit more. Any severe storm threat would be on Wednesday, per current forecast.

Stay tuned..
TexasBreeze
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NWS Houston is really hammering this event and not being last minute conservative with statements. Stay tuned! This beats watching the Alabama beatdown game so far... ;)
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wthrwave
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Am watching the upcoming event and noticed that Spotter participation was not mentioned in NWS. Don't think we need a formal invitation (if you know what I mean) :D

Looking forward.
Paul Robison

Well, folks. Today's the day. HGX already seeing radar returns in the gulf, in case you haven't noticed. Maybe things won't be so bad after all.
STILL:
Pray for me, ya'll.
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