May Weather Discussion.

[Ptarmigan]

I want this cockroach cap, wind aloft, and ridge to go away once and for all.

[srainhoutx]

SPC Update removes Slight Risk for all of SE TX. It does appear the front is a bit stronger than forecast and should give us a brief break from the 90's and higher humidity over the weekend. Enjoy it while it lasts.

[kayci]

No hope for Galveston County huh????

[wxdata]

No hope for Galveston County huh????

About the same as for Houston, little to none. A small chance as the front approaches today, 20% at best.

In fact the 12z GFS shows only .2 inches at rain at IAH for the next 15 days...

[srainhoutx]

Getting the lawn sprinklers going. Darn pesky Ridge!

[wxdata]

Seabreeze moving inland...

[wxdata]

Life in the ol' mare yet (although a strong cap and shallow moisture may starve any line from making it this far south..)

mcd0498[2].gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0498
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0846 PM CDT FRI MAY 07 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN TX...NRN LA...SERN AR...NWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 080146Z - 080415Z

ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...BUT COVERAGE OF SEVERE SHOULD NOT WARRANT A WW.

VISIBLE IMAGERY PRIOR TO SUNSET SHOWED TCU ALONG A COLD FRONT FROM
ERN AR INTO ERN TX. MOST OF THE CU AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WAS FLAT
AND INDICATIVE OF CAPPING. INDEED...AREA SOUNDINGS AT 00Z REVEAL A
CAPPING INVERSION NEAR 700 MB. HOWEVER...THE SHV SOUNDING ALSO
SHOWED A VERY DEEP AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. GPS PWAT READINGS ARE
AVERAGING NEAR 1.50-1.60 INCHES ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH DRIER
READINGS AWAY FROM THE BOUNDARY.

ALTHOUGH FORCING WILL BE WEAK AND FOCUSED IN THE LOW LEVELS ALONG
THE FRONT...SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING IN THE DRY CAPPING LAYER SHOULD
ALLOW FOR STORMS TO ERUPT FROM ERN TX INTO MS. LARGE INSTABILITY AS
WELL AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH
HAIL AND GUSTY DOWNBURSTS...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED.

[Mr. T]

It still looks like (good?) rain chances should finally return back to the area next weekend...

[wxdata]

0z GFS still points to things 'moistening up' about mid-month. Let's hope it's a valid forecast and not a La-La Land forecast...

[Ptarmigan]

We must keep the faith for rain.

[Ptarmigan]

Getting the lawn sprinklers going. Darn pesky Ridge!

My RAID cans did not kill the cockroach ridge!

[kayci]

*sigh* oh well, since I won't be seeing any rain it looks like I'll just have to 'drag' myself to the beach today.

[srainhoutx]

WRF generates rain in the SW HGX CWA tomorrow, for reasons I don't understand.

PW's 1.5 to 1.8 pooling along Matagorda Bay. A stalled and washing out boundary that may very well return as a warm front would do the trick.

[Ptarmigan]

I notice some thunderstorms in Mexico, across the border from Texas. I don't get it. How come they get the rain and we don't?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR4.html

[wxdata]

I notice some thunderstorms in Mexico, across the border from Texas. I don't get it. How come they get the rain and we don't?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR4.html

Two words- orographic lifting

http://blogs.usatoday.com/weather/2006/ ... s_g_3.html

[wxdata]

day1otlk_1200[1].gif

Whoa! High risk for north central OK and extreme southern KS. The high-risk region is very close to the OK City as well..


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outloo ... 0_prt.html

[wxdata]

HPC- next five days: SE TX receives no rain while areas west get drenched...

[wxdata]

Excerpt from morning update from SPC:

SURFACE DRYLINE EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TX...AND MAY PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. LACK OF SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE FORCING AND A RATHER STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION SUGGEST THAT AREAL COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE
QUITE SPARSE."

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

[biggerbyte]

Sunny and fair's famous hit..

"The heat goes on"


Muhahaha

What's up these days, Steve.

[biggerbyte]

Say, Dan, what do you think about all the bad weather in Oklahoma?