May Weather Discussion.

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HPC's QPF is painting a rather wet picture for the start of May. A stark reversal to the last two months. Main culprits- a trough to the west, a stalling front and Gulf moisture...
Last edited by srainhoutx on Sat May 15, 2010 5:44 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Top 10 Driest Aprils on record.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_top10_apr

Top 10
Driest
0.33 1937
0.39 1920
0.43 1983
0.47 1987
0.56 1984
0.57 1978
0.58 1944
0.63 1933
0.69 1951
0.70 1907

Here is the total from May to August
10.24 1937
NA 1920
27.31 1983
20.97 1987
12.07 1984
19.53 1978
18.92 1944
18.01 1933
9.71 1951
23.93 1907

Guess what? May to August is wet, with the exception of 1937 and 1951, which we had a drought that time. 1920 is unknown due to data not being available.

Current April total is 2.76. April 1989 was dry, even drier than April 2010. It ended up being one of the wettest May and June ever recorded at Intercontinental Airport.
1989
April=1.48
May=13.56
June=16.28
July=1.92
August=2.74
Total=34.5

May of 1907 is the wettest May ever recorded officially in Houston.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/?n=climate_iah_top10_may

What does a dry April mean for us? Historically based on the top 10 dry Aprils, it has given way to wet May and even wet summers. So, we could see a wet May and summer this year. I will come up with a comprehensive April stats at a later date, but it gives you a good idea about what a dry April leads to.
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Still appears to be some timing issues regarding this weekend...SPC 4 - 8 Day Outlook...

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 AM CDT TUE APR 27 2010

VALID 301200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
DRASTIC DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE AGAIN APPARENT
THIS FORECAST...AS EARLY AS DAY 4 /FRI. APR. 30/. SUBSTANTIAL
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE COMPLEX
UPPER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE WRN AND CENTRAL U.S. RESULTS IN A GFS
FORECAST OF THE DAY 4 AFTERNOON SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION FROM STL
SWWD INTO SERN TX. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF DEPICTS THE FRONT AT THE
SAME TIME ACROSS CENTRAL KS/CENTRAL OK/CENTRAL TX.
WHILE SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY EXIST INVOF THE SURFACE FRONT REGARDLESS OF
ITS ACTUAL LOCATION -- AS AMPLY MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WOULD
LIKELY EXIST ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR...THE LOCATION OF THIS
THREAT WOULD OBVIOUSLY DIFFER BY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES BASED ON A
PERFECT PROG OF THE TWO RUNS.


ATTM...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS MORE LIKELY --
WITH MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF IA ACROSS MO/ERN
KS AND INTO OK AND PERHAPS N TX. HOWEVER...ATTM CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO HIGHLIGHT A SPECIFIC THREAT AREA.

SUBSTANTIAL MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE...AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LIKEWISE INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
ANY THREAT AREAS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 04/27/2010
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Although there are timing and location differences of the western trough, most models continue to paint a more cloudy and on again, off again rain picture through early next week..
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HPC's still having trouble place its bull-eye for rain maximum, slips parts of SE TX back into the 1 inch totals or greater category by Monday morning.
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Interesting snip from HGX this afternoon. Stalled boundaries and deep tropical moisture...hmmm...must be getting close to "Season"... ;)

A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN STATES BY THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA IN RESPONSE TO THIS.
IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE A BROAD SWATH OF
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER TEXAS...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
PASSING ACROSS THE STATE. THE FIRST DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE STATE ON FRIDAY. UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME DIFFLUENT OVER THE
AREA AS 110 KT JET MAX AT 300 MB APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE FRIDAY WITH PWS OF
1.4-1.6 INCHES. HOWEVER...A STRONG CAP WILL BE IN PLACE IN THE
700-800 MB RANGE. AT THE VERY LEAST EXPECT SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP UNDER THE CAP. THE BEST CHANCE OF THE CAP BREAKING WILL
BE OVER THE NE ZONES...AND STRONG SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD
SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IN THIS AREA. SPC HAS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR THE NE HALF OF THE AREA. WILL HAVE HIGHEST POPS (40S/50S)
OVER NE ZONES TAPERING DOWN TO 20S ALONG THE COAST. AN EVEN
STRONGER SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH NORTH TX ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...BY THIS POINT THE CAPPING BECOMES EVEN STRONGER OVER THE
CWA...AND MID LEVEL TEMPS ARE QUITE WARM (500 MB TEMPS AROUND
-6C). GIVEN THE DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE...WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS
(20S/30S) SATURDAY FOR SHALLOW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...THINKING THAT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SATURDAY WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA. SFC DRYLINE WILL LIKELY REACH NW ZONES LATE
SATURDAY THEN STALL BEFORE RETREATING BACK TO THE WEST ON SUNDAY.
MOISTURE LEVELS DEEPEN FURTHER SUNDAY/MONDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
BEGINS TO TAP INTO SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE. PWS INCREASE TO 1.6-1.8
INCHES THIS PERIOD. CAPPING ALSO APPEARS TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT THIS
PERIOD. HAVE MAINTAINED 20-30 POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE
ANTICIPATION OF SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. UPPER
TROUGH FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS TEXAS LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF INDICATE THIS COULD BE A VERY WET PERIOD FOR SE TX...AS
PWS INCREASE TO OVER 2 INCHES...AND GOOD CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS
ALONG THE SFC AND 850 MB BOUNDARIES. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT POPS AT LOW
CHANCE CATEGORY BUT MAY NEED TO RAISE THEM LATER ON.

FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK EXPECT
HUMIDITY TO BE AT SUMMERTIME LEVELS WHICH WILL SEEM LIKE QUITE A
SHOCK AFTER SUCH A COOL WINTER AND SPRING. SKIES WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AS WELL.

35
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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SPC has included SE TX in a sight risk for severe weather Saturday

"A MORE FOCUSED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FROM ERN TX EWD INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS THE MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT COMES UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. AS MENTIONED IN
THE SYNOPSIS...THE LOW-LEVEL MASS RESPONSE TO THIS IMPULSE WILL
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CYCLOGENETIC SURFACE LOW OVER THE
ARKLATEX...AS WELL AS THE REFORMATION OF A 40-50 KT LLJ OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY. "
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Interesting snip from the Updated SPC Outlook for tomorrow...

...EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
INHIBITION SOUTH OF STALLING BOUNDARIES IS BECOMING MORE OF A
CONCERN. BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...INCLUDING A VERY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 70S DEW POINTS...IN THE PRESENCE OF CONTINUING
STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...WILL CERTAINLY SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT EARLY DAY
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS COULD INITIATE IN DISCRETE
FASHION SOUTH OF SURFACE FRONT AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
HOWEVER...STORM MOTIONS WILL TEND TO BE NORTHEASTWARD INTO
POTENTIALLY RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR. SO...TORNADIC POTENTIAL
ACROSS EAST TEXAS/LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI INTO ARKANSAS IS STILL
UNCLEAR...THOUGH ENVIRONMENTAL PROFILES MAY OTHERWISE BE FAVORABLE
FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG TORNADOES. LATE IN THE EVENING THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE TENDENCY FOR STORM CONSOLIDATION ALONG/NORTH
OF STALLED FRONT AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IS EXPECTED...WITH AT LEAST
A CONTINUING RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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SPC must feel the cap holds over SE TX- once again moves slight risk further northward for Saturday.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
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2am- Golf ball size hail reported near Del Rio.
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Although our part of SE TX is not currently in the Slight Risk, we do have another High Risk event for areas in the Mid South. Another worrisome weekend for those folks.

Image
Image
Image

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 AM CDT SAT MAY 01 2010

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF AR...MS...TN AND
THE MO BOOTHEEL...

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA
OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MS...LWR TN AND LWR OH VLYS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE ABOVE AREAS
FROM E TX NEWD INTO THE UPR OH VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGH AMPLITUDE CNTRL STATES TROUGH WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY E THIS
PERIOD AS ASSOCIATED NRN PLAINS UPR LOW REMAINS QSTNRY AND ATTENDANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ENTERING CHIHUAHUA SHEARS ENE ACROSS W
TX...OK...AND...BY SUN MORNING...KS/MO. MID/UPR LVL
SPEED MAX WITH THE CHIHUAHUA SYSTEM WILL REDEVELOP NE INTO N TX/OK
BY THIS EVE...AND FURTHER EXPAND NE ACROSS MID MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS
EARLY SUN.

AT THE SFC...MAIN FRONTAL ZONE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STNRY FROM LWR MI
TO E TX TODAY...WITH COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LEFT BY OVERNIGHT
STORMS LIKELY TO LIFT SLOWLY N ACROSS AR AND THE LWR TN VLY. A WAVE
SHOULD FORM OVER NE TX OR THE ARKLATEX LATER TODAY...NEAR
INTERSECTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH FRONT. THE WAVE SHOULD TRACK
NNE INTO THE LWR OH VLY TONIGHT/EARLY SUN.

...E TX/LWR MS VLY INTO THE LWR TN/LWR OH VLYS THROUGH TONIGHT...
WSW-ENE ORIENTED QLCS OVER THE LWR MS AND TN VLYS MAY FURTHER WEAKEN
LATER THIS MORNING AS WEAK HEIGHT RISES OVERSPREAD REGION AND SFC
TEMPERATURES REACH DIURNAL MINIMUMS. SFC HEATING AND CONTINUED
INFLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR SHOULD...HOWEVER...SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF
SOME STORMS IN WHAT IS LEFT OF THE MCS BY EARLY AFTN...WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE TO ITS S OVER SRN/CNTRL AR AND NRN
MS. OTHER STORMS MAY FORM LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTN OVER NE
TX AND SE OK...AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM CHIHUAHUA UPR
IMPULSE INCREASES ATOP SHALLOW FRONT.

COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND RICH MOISTURE /PW 1.50-1.75
INCHES WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S/ SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SUBSTANTIAL LOW LVL DESTABILIZATION ALONG AND S OF MCS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY AND E OF FRONT...WITH SBCAPE EXPECTED TO BE AOA 2000 J/KG
WITH MINIMAL CINH. COUPLED WITH STRONGLY-SHEARED LOW TO MID LVL
WIND FIELD...SETUP COULD SUPPORT SCTD SUSTAINED SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADOES/SVR HAIL.

AS THE CHIHUAHUA SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED MID/UPR LVL SPEED MAX /WITH
250 MB FLOW AROUND 150 KTS/ CONTINUE NEWD LATER THIS AFTN AND
TONIGHT...DOWNSTREAM SLY LLJ SHOULD MARKEDLY INCREASE OVER THE LWR
MS AN TN VLYS. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT ENHANCEMENT OF EXISTING
STORMS...AS WELL AS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...FROM THE ARKLATEX
E/NEWD INTO THE LWR TN AND LWR OH VLYS THROUGH THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

60 KT DEEP SWLY SHEAR AND DEEPLY-MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL MID/UPR LVL FLOW WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL ECHO
TRAINING/LEWPS AS SFC WAVE TRACKS NE TOWARD THE OH VLY. THE SETUP
ULTIMATELY MAY SUPPORT MULTIPLE CORRIDORS HAVING A POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG TORNADOES FROM MUCH OF AR AND NRN MS NEWD INTO WRN/CNTRL
TN...WRN/CNTRL KY AND PERHAPS SRN IL/SRN INDIANA TONIGHT/EARLY SUN.

...MIDDLE/UPR OH VLY...
ERN END OF AFOREMENTIONED QLCS SHOULD CONTINUE E ACROSS ERN KY AND
CNTRL/ERN OH THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
AND MODEST LOW LVL MOISTURE INFLOW MAY SUPPORT A MODEST SVR THREAT
/DMGG WINDS OR AN ISOLD TORNADO/ THROUGH EARLY EVE. ADDITIONAL
STRONG TO SVR ACTIVITY MAY AFFECT THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD
/AFTER 06Z SUN/ AS SFC WAVE MOVES NE TOWARD THE LWR OH VLY AND
ASSOCIATED LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER ERN KY/OH.

..CORFIDI/GARNER.. 05/01/2010
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Just took a peek at the RUC, SREF and WFR data. Very impressive severe weather parameters for the areas in the High Risk. Also concerned with the clearing in Eastern TX. This may very well lead to further destabilization as the day progresses...

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HGX Update continues with capping issues in the Houston Metro area. Points just N of DT Houston may see some storms as the cap is eroding behind the frontal boundary...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1044 AM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

.DISCUSSION...
MORNING ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOWING A VERY STRONG CAP IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTHERN FA WITH 700MB T OF 12C! THE COLD FRONT JUST MADE IT
TO COLLEGE STATION AND EXTENDS SOUTHWEST TOWARD LAREDO AND
NORTHEAST TO TYLER. MODELS SHOW THAT THE CAP DROPS OFF QUICKLY
NORTHWEST OF THE COLLEGE STATION TO SHREVEPORT LINE. WITH HEATING
TODAY REACHING THE 82-87 DEGREE RANGE OVER THE CWA EXPECT THAT THE
EROSION OF THE CAP TO PRIMARILY ONLY OCCUR OVER THE NORTHERN CWA.
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST EXCEPT TO DOWNPLAY PRECIP
CHANCES OVER THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
CREEPS SOUTHEASTWARD AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ANY FLARE UPS OF
STORMS AS THE PROFILE WOULD SUPPORT THE THREAT OF SEVERE WITH
STRONG WIND PROFILES AND CAPE 1500+. BUT FOR NOW WILL BE STICKING
WITH PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT OF SEVERE THREAT AREA BEING OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES PARTICULARLY BRAZOS/MADISON/HOUSTON/TRINITY/WALKER
AND POLK COUNTIES. THE FRONT CRAWLS INTO HOUSTON METRO AROUND
07-10Z. STILL SOME THREAT FOR SHRA/TSRA AFTER 06Z BUT
LINGERING/WEAKENING CAP MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO LIMIT COVERAGE.
45
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Late morning update from SPC still keeping slight risk away from most of SE TX; further northwest may have a problem though..


http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outloo ... _1300.html
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12z NAM showing little or no rain heading our way in the next 84 hours...
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Pressure awfully low- below 29.50 over most of the area. 18z NAM suggests that it might be possible to break the cap with frontal passage. Either way, it'll be a close call..

Mid afternoon update from SPC has edged the slight risk a little closer to SE TX/Houston; however most of the 'action' stays north and east..
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Storms 'trying' to fire in Walker and Houston Counties.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Perhaps .50 inch hail moving out of Houston County and heading for Trinity County.
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
631 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

TXZ163-177-020030-
HOUSTON-WALKER-
631 PM CDT SAT MAY 1 2010

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 626 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
21 MILES NORTHEAST OF CROCKETT TO 15 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HUNTSVILLE.
THIS LINE WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

WINDS UP TO 45 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE...WECHES...CRABBS
PRAIRIE...LOVELADY AND CROCKETT.
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New Mesoscale Discussion-

"FARTHER SSW INTO EAST CENTRAL-SERN TX...LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING
INTO THIS REGION WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
SSWWD TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE OF STRONGER ACTIVITY JUST TO
THE SSW OF WW 125 SHOULD PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A NEW WATCH OVER
PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL-SERN TX."



http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0451.html
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