December-Wet/Stormy New Years Eve Ahead

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weatherguy425
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Would be a nice time for the PNA to go positive and one of these Pacific pieces of energy to dig south and head east :D At-least I still have an imagination.
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JackCruz
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Sorry don't know how to resize the images.
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Lord have mercy. I know this is probably not gonna happen, but can't help but wonder if there's a slim chance? Thoughts?
:shock: :oops:

Regarding the pattern change, shouldn't we be experiencing the pattern change predicted last week(or 2 weeks ago) now or next week? But instead we're in the upper 70's - 80's. I've been living in Houston for 5 years now, one would think I'd get used to the flip flopping and what not...but I need cold and snow.
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I shared this in another forum, but thought that reposting it in this thread was appropriate:

"I asked Fred Schmude with Impact Weather the following questions this morning. His answers provide promise for those of us who really like winter weather. See below:

Q: What would the various teleconnection indices have to look like for trough to be centered along central CONUS as opposed to being situated along east coast? Any chance of this happening?

A: If we see the East Pac and Atlantic Blocks set up a little farther to the west, then we could see the main trough axis set up shop right across the Plains. This of course would be good news for the Plains and Midwest because it would increase the likelihood of more rain/snow. Even though this is a possibility (~20%), the main favored position is still the Eastern U.S. and Canada.

Q: Any chance of a McFarland Signature setting up this winter?

A: This is the type of weather pattern where we could see something as extreme as a McFarland Signature bringing bitterly cold air all the way south to the Rio Grande Valley. Last winter the risk of that kind of a pattern was less than 10%...this year I put the risk at 20-30%. The best chance of a McFarland Signature will be during the last 10 days of Dec through Jan.

Keep hope alive!!!"
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Folks as the weather forum continue to grow and our members expand across Texas/Oklahoma/Louisiana, please take a moment and update your profile to include your general location. We are going to continue to expand our discussions for everyone well beyond the Houston Metro area. This was envisioned years ago by Dan and we took the growth of the forum in this regard when we received our new platform back in February 2010. It's good to see folks posting again and we look forward to many more taking the time to join us as we continue to make improvements with the platform in the future. KHOU recognizes the importance of our weather community and is being very active in updating and providing technical support as we continue to grow.
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Here is an interesting snippet from the afternoon area forecast discussion (AFD) out of the NWSFO Austin/San Antonio (which is in New Braunfels):

A MUCH STRONGER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE
TOWARD COLDER CONDITIONS APPEARS IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE
BEYOND OUR FORECAST RANGE FOR SPECIFICITY...OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
WILL BE MUCH MORE PLEASANT THIS WEEKEND THAN NEXT...PLAN ACCORDINGLY.
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srainhoutx
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Portastorm wrote:Here is an interesting snippet from the afternoon area forecast discussion (AFD) out of the NWSFO Austin/San Antonio (which is in New Braunfels):

A MUCH STRONGER FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CHANGE
TOWARD COLDER CONDITIONS APPEARS IN STORE FOR NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE
BEYOND OUR FORECAST RANGE FOR SPECIFICITY...OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
WILL BE MUCH MORE PLEASANT THIS WEEKEND THAN NEXT...PLAN ACCORDINGLY.
Well the overnight 00Z Euro certainly agrees with EWX and their thinking. Looking at the longer range 06Z GEFS it does appear some mighty chilly air is poised to spill S into the Plains and bring some snow and wintry mischief fairly far S into the Southern Rockies/Southern Plains with some much needed cold rain closer to the drought parched regions of Central Texas. We will see.
11302012 00Z Euro 00zeuro500mbHeightAnomalyNH192.gif
11302012 06Z GEFS 00zgfsensembles500mbHeightAnomalyNH276.gif
11302012 06Z GFS Ensembles 06zENS11-15day850mbTempAnomalyNA.gif
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Ed Mahmoud wrote:McFarland events of very cold air sound fun, but even a lot of the cold tolerant sub-tropical plants everyone knows and loves, like the fan palm trees, would suffer a massive die off. Not to mention pipes bursting in the such.


It is far better for a cool airmass, but not bitterly cold, with low dewpoints (although that means static shocks and itchy skin) , IMHO, for Winter fun. I have seen days in Dallas where 45ºF and sunny one afternoon is replaced by freezing/frozen the next via evaporative cooling, maybe with an assist of dynamic cooling. No airmass change, miraculous what a dewpoint in the single digits or teens can do, especially with a flow from the North to keep the dry recharge going so the airmass doesn't ompletely saturate and rise above freezing.

I have seen thunder-sleet storms before in DFW. Never here. Everyone should see thundersleet once in their lives...


BTW, a dewpoint thing, when I was in New York, a comfortable cool 45-ish day was never followed by Winter precip w/o an airmass change. Partly due to that stupid Atlantic Ocean. Speaking of, saw video from the old neighborhood in Nassau Shores, 4 blocks over, Stillwater Ave., homes on the bay had mechanical/wave damage, homes a block inland didn't have obvious mechanical damage, but had 3 to 5 feet of salt water flooding. Lots of sheet rock and carpets to rip out there.


I have been in two different wicked Thunder Snows/Sleets. One was in Longview, TX in 1989. I was out helping my Dad with the yard a few days before Christmas and it was 75. The cold front plowed through and that night it was 22 degrees with sleet/freezing rain and snow. You could see lightning and the thunders were roaring. We actually had a White Christmas that year although it didn't actually precipitate on Christmas Day.

The other ThunderSnow event was in Columbus, OH in 2006. Front swept through and Rain quickly changed to snow and 40 mph winds and snowbursts with thunder.
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Hi Arizona- I enjoy reading your posts. You bring up the subject of 'why' the models are so wrong and flip flop and the frustration that I'm sure many other people feel about the difficulties in long range, and sometimes very short range forecasting. The simple answer is that we do not yet completely (not even close to completely) understand the dynamics of the atmosphere. This means the computer models we use are imperfect to begin with. Also and probably more important, is that we have very little real data to initiate the model runs from. It's like taking a grain of sand and dropping it in a swimming pool. That grain of sand represents the two dozen or so weather balloon launches we get twice a day that give us real observed data to ingest into the models. Imperfect models and limited data equals increased forecast error over time. We have to work within our limitations and it is tough and very frustrating sometimes.

As for 'normal' weather.. it's actually quite rare to have a day that is normal. Usually, the temps or precip or winds are above or below normal on any given day or week or month, but average out over time to give us 'normal' readings for that day.

So we're in an imperfect model world with limited data points, things are rarely normal and nearly impossible to forecast accurately over time. That's the world the met must accept and work within some serious limitations. This is why I run a lot. Keeps my blood pressure low. Hope this helps. Cheers!
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Well AZ_ARIZONA_DESERT I wish someone could tell us all what the weather will be like with 100% accuracy. Unfortunately, weather will always be someone unpredictable. No amoutn of ranting can change that.

For everyone else that is interested...with a little bit or digging I have discovered that
AZ_ARIZONA_DESERT is actually a second member name for a regular poster on the forums. You see, you may be able to rejoin...but you cannot hide...you always leave a trail. ;)
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srainhoutx
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David Paul wrote:Hi Arizona- I enjoy reading your posts. You bring up the subject of 'why' the models are so wrong and flip flop and the frustration that I'm sure many other people feel about the difficulties in long range, and sometimes very short range forecasting. The simple answer is that we do not yet completely (not even close to completely) understand the dynamics of the atmosphere. This means the computer models we use are imperfect to begin with. Also and probably more important, is that we have very little real data to initiate the model runs from. It's like taking a grain of sand and dropping it in a swimming pool. That grain of sand represents the two dozen or so weather balloon launches we get twice a day that give us real observed data to ingest into the models. Imperfect models and limited data equals increased forecast error over time. We have to work within our limitations and it is tough and very frustrating sometimes.

As for 'normal' weather.. it's actually quite rare to have a day that is normal. Usually, the temps or precip or winds are above or below normal on any given day or week or month, but average out over time to give us 'normal' readings for that day.

So we're in an imperfect model world with limited data points, things are rarely normal and nearly impossible to forecast accurately over time. That's the world the met must accept and work within some serious limitations. This is why I run a lot. Keeps my blood pressure low. Hope this helps. Cheers!

Thanks for the input David. How well we all know the challenges and limitations that the guidance provides you folks that forecast for a living. After all they don't call it guidance without reason. That said I remain somewhat optimistic that we'll see changes ahead near the mid December time frame.
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I'm hoping for a change for sure. My kids and I are heading up to Michigan to hopefully frolic in the snow for Christmas. Of course...they need snow first though lol.
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Those 11-15 day temperature anamolies from the 6z GFS operational run sure look chilly!
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srainhoutx
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Portastorm wrote:Those 11-15 day temperature anamolies from the 6z GFS operational run sure look chilly!

One can see the change already begin to show up in the 00Z Euro Ensembles as well. Confidence continues to build that wholesale pattern change is in the works near mid December.
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srainhoutx
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A bit different view of the 12Z Operational GFS North Pacific 500mb chart suggest a stout +PNA developing offshore of the West Coast pumping a ridge N into the Aleutian Islands/near or just E of the Bering Sea. A deep trough begins to develop into the Intermountain West suggesting that very cold air that has been bottled up in Western Canada will become dislodged and head S into the Plains. Also of note is a raging Polar jet with embedded short wave energy digging into the Great Basin.
12012012 12Z GFS gfs_npac_240_500_vort_ht.gif
Switching back to the North American 850mb view, one can see the cold air spilling S and a Pacific Tropical connection develop providing over running moisture over a chilly surface air mass. The trends continue to suggest that after we get beyond next weekend, we may well change to a much colder pattern and I would not be surprised to see a fairly significant Winter Storm develop across the Plains providing for less air mass modification and just perhaps laying some snow cover down. We will see.
12012012 12Z GFS gfs_namer_276_10m_wnd_precip.gif
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srainhoutx
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NWS Tulsa this afternoon:

ALTHOUGH ACCURACY IN LONGER TERM FORECASTING LEAVES A LOT TO BE
DESIRED... WILL MENTION SOMETHING THAT HAS CONTINUED TO APPEAR IN
THE GFS OF LATE AND IS NOW BECOMING APPARENT IN THE ECMWF. PROJECTED
NORTH AMERICAN AIR MASS MOVEMENTS ARE HINTING AT A TRUE WINTER TYPE
ARCTIC AIR MASS SWEEPING DOWN THE PLAINS ON ABOUT DAY 10 OR 11. IT
IS TOO SOON TO EVEN GUESS WHETHER SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WOULD
COINCIDE WITH THIS EVENT... IF IT WERE TO OCCUR AT THAT TIME.

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wxman57
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Excellent day yesterday! A record 83 degrees made for great biking weather. We rode 45 miles around the city. Was only slightly cool when the sun went behind the clouds a few times. Latest GFS doesn't indicate much in the way of a front Tuesday any more, and nice warm weather next weekend too.
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Glad for all of those who enjoy 80s in December, but I am in the camp that is praying for wetter and cooler weather. We are entering severe drought status again, and I shudder to think about the devastation that could be in the offing if we have a repeat of 2011 dryness and heat again. As you can tell from my forum ID name, I am a fan of cold weather, but the threat of foundations cracking, wildfires threatening our communities, trees decaying and dying off in our neighborhoods and landmark areas like Memorial Park, and low lake/river water levels that harm our region's jobs and economy are a few of the reasons why I am hoping that unseasonably warm and dry weather does not continue to parch our already dry grounds and set us up for a terrible situation come next summer.
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wxman57 wrote:Excellent day yesterday! A record 83 degrees made for great biking weather. We rode 45 miles around the city. Was only slightly cool when the sun went behind the clouds a few times. Latest GFS doesn't indicate much in the way of a front Tuesday any more, and nice warm weather next weekend too.
Ssshhh ... nobody tell Wxman57 about the 12z GFS run and how it's very different from the 0z run. We wouldn't want him to see the cold Polar air plunging south into Texas early next (Dec. 11-12) week.
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Portastorm wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Excellent day yesterday! A record 83 degrees made for great biking weather. We rode 45 miles around the city. Was only slightly cool when the sun went behind the clouds a few times. Latest GFS doesn't indicate much in the way of a front Tuesday any more, and nice warm weather next weekend too.
Ssshhh ... nobody tell Wxman57 about the 12z GFS run and how it's very different from the 0z run. We wouldn't want him to see the cold Polar air plunging south into Texas early next (Dec. 11-12) week.
Do tell. The suspense is killing me. :D
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From NWS Dallas this morning:

MEDIUM TO EXTENDED RANGE MODELS FINALLY INDICATE A PATTERN CHANGE
ACROSS THE HEMISPHERE WITH THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA BECOMING DISLODGED. AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WHEN
A PATTERN CHANGE IS FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...MODEL
GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE MAP WITH RESPECT TO THE PARTICULARS IN
THE FORECAST. FOR EXAMPLE...A FRIDAY COLD FRONT WAS ADVERTISED
YESTERDAY...BUT TODAY THE CANADIAN HAS THE FRONT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...THE UKMET/GFS IS WEAKER AND STALLS IT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THE ECMWF HAS A STRONG FRONT THROUGH ON SATURDAY. BY
MONDAY THE GFS UNLEASHES ARCTIC AIR INTO THE PLAINS...BUT THE
ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE THIS SURGE AND HAS A MUCH DIFFERENT UPPER
PATTERN FORECAST.
IT GOES WITHOUT SAYING THAT THE FORECAST BEYOND
5 DAYS IS OF VERY LOW CONFIDENCE...AND THERE IS LITTLE CHOICE BUT
TO TREND TEMPERATURES TOWARD CLIMO FRIDAY...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

SO WHILE THE TEMP FORECAST SHOWS COOLING...THIS IS REALLY AN
ARTIFACT CAUSED BY TRYING TO FORECAST WITHOUT A RELIABLE SIGNAL IN
THE MODELS. WILL ENTERTAIN THE IDEA THAT A WEAK FRONT MAY AFFECT
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND/OR SATURDAY AND KEEP 20 POPS IN
FORECAST. AGAIN THIS IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE...AND IF POPS WERE NOT
ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY THEY WOULD HAVE PROBABLY
BEEN LEFT OUT.




And from the HPC:

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
901 AM EST SUN DEC 02 2012

VALID 12Z THU DEC 06 2012 - 12Z SUN DEC 09 2012

...SYNOPSIS...

THE WESTERN U.S. STORM RELAXES DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. IN
THE EASTERN U.S...A SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN
AND POSSIBLY A ZONE OF WINTRY MIX BY NEXT WEEKEND.

THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST FEATURES A GRADUAL CHANGE IN THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN. A LONG-LIVED REX BLOCK AND SPLIT FLOW REGIME
NEAR/SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WILL BREAK DOWN. THIS ALLOWS
MORE COLD AIR TO SPILL OFF OF CONTINENTAL ASIA AND DEEPEN A
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. THIS PROPS UP A RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...BRINGING AN END TO THE PROLONGED HEAVY
RAIN EVENT ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. DOWNSTREAM...MODELS
AND TELECONNECTIONS PREDICT DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD SCALE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH...SUPPORTED BY INTRUSIONS OF ARCTIC AND
MODIFIED ARCTIC ARE INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES.


...MODEL CHOICE...

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THAT UNCERTAINTY IN SOME DETAILS OF
NORTHERN PACIFIC FLOW BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL LEAD TO
GREATER THAN DESIRED SPREAD FOR SHORTWAVE SYSTEMS PROGRESSING
DOWNSTREAM WITHIN THE DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER NORTH
AMERICA. SUCH A PATTERN WOULD LEAD TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO NEW ENGLAND BY DAYS 6/7...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR MORE WAVES TO EVOLVE ALONG THE FRONT. SPREAD
AMONG LATEST AND RECENT OPERATIONAL MODELS/INDIVIDUAL ENSEMBLES
CONTINUES TO BE SUFFICIENTLY LARGE LATE IN THE PERIOD TO FAVOR
RELYING ON ENSEMBLE MEANS TO CAPTURE THE MORE PREDICTABLE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN...WHILE WAITING FOR BETTER AGREEMENT AS TO THE
DETAILS.

ALTHOUGH THE GFS HAS SOME QUESTION MARKS WITH ITS CNTRL-ERN CONUS
EVOLUTION IN THE SHORT RANGE... BY EARLY DAY 3 WED A BLEND OF THE
00Z GFS/ECMWF APPEARS REASONABLE FOR THE SYSTEMS REACHING W-CNTRL
NOAM AND THE EAST COAST AT THAT TIME. THIS BLEND IS CONTINUED
THRU DAY 4 THU. A SLIGHTLY GREATER WEIGHTING OF THE GEFS/12Z
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS IS INTRODUCED DAY 5 FRI AS FCST SPREAD OVER
THE PACIFIC COMES INTO THE PICTURE. A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/00Z
GEFS MEANS SERVES AS THE STARTING POINT FOR DAYS 6-7 SAT-SUN WITH
THE GOAL OF YIELDING SOMEWHAT BETTER CONTINUITY THAN WOULD LIKELY
BE THE CASE IF SELECTING PARTICULAR DETAILS OF ANY CURRENT
OPERATIONAL SOLUTIONS.

...IMPACTS...

THE TAIL END OF THE WESTERN U.S. RAIN/SNOW STORM WILL BE WINDING
DOWN BY DAY 3 AS HEIGHT FALLS MIGRATE FARTHER INLAND AND THE UPPER
FLOW FLATTENS. ON DAYS 4/5 THE PACIFIC ENERGY COMES INTO PHASE
WITH CONTINENTAL AIR DIPPING SOUTHWARD TO CARVE OUT A VERY BROAD
TROUGH OVER THE NATION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR DECEMBER IN THE SOUTHERN TIER AND UP ALONG THE EAST
COAST...AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BACK TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR OR
JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE. PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO BREAK OUT
AND BECOME ORGANIZED WITHIN THE PRIMARY FRONTAL ZONE BY DAYS
5-7...ESPECIALLY FROM THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TOWARD
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME WINTRY MIX OF RAIN/ICE/SNOW COULD OCCUR
AT THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THIS PRECIPITATION.

RAUSCH/BURKE



00Z European Ensembles:

12022012 00Z Euro 00zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNH168.gif
12Z GFS Operational:
12022012 12Z GFS 12zgfs500mbHeightAnomalyNH168.gif
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