December-Wet/Stormy New Years Eve Ahead

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
weatherguy425
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06z GFS keep with the couple run trend of a much weaker and progressive progression of troughs through Mid December, and is in Decent agreement with the more recent runs of the ECMWF. Also almost all ensemble guidance shows a decently positive NAO forming within the next week or so.Even up here in Lubbock we're expecting highs near 80 by this weekend. This time last year we were socked in with clouds and freezing drizzle, followed by our first snow on December 4th. Definitely a boring and depressing weather pattern for cold weather lovers, hopefully it will indeed change....SOON.
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weatherguy425 wrote:06z GFS keep with the couple run trend of a much weaker and progressive progression of troughs through Mid December, and is in Decent agreement with the more recent runs of the ECMWF. Also almost all ensemble guidance shows a decently positive NAO forming within the next week or so.Even up here in Lubbock we're expecting highs near 80 by this weekend. This time last year we were socked in with clouds and freezing drizzle, followed by our first snow on December 4th. Definitely a boring and depressing weather pattern for cold weather lovers, hopefully it will indeed change....SOON.
Don't despair too much. The GFS operational runs from the 0z and 6z cycles were a dramatic departure from the last few days. The ensembles from those cycles, especially the 6z cycle, still suggest the pooling and potential unleasing of cold Polar air late in the period (11-15 days).

Where did you see the ensemble guidance about the NAO? What I'm seeing is the NAO approaching neutral in 7-10 days but then going negative again at 14 days per the ensemble guidance.
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http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ions.shtml

This may be solely the GFS ensemble mean after taking another look at it. Though, it still indicates a substantial rise in NAO values, but as you indicated it does fall back toward neutral/negative territory by the middle of the month (maybe the 14th or so?). Though I've just seen these teleconnection signals looks very encouraging for quite some time in the loner granges, only for it to back off as we near the initial "progged" date. I guess I'm just being more guarded this winter, after how the pattern has been so far.
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I wouldn't get too worked up over the operational guidance swinging back and forth from run to run. Keep an eye on the ensembles for longer range pattern 'hints'. There remain some very strong indications via the CFSv2 guidance of changes ahead once we get beyond mid December. In fact the storm track may well bring some of the very cold air building in Western Canada S near/just before the Christmas Holidays. Enjoy the mild pattern while it lasts. Let’s just say I don’t think anyone E of the Rockies will be using the swimming pool for Christmas this year… ;)
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weatherguy425
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Haha, I'm not saying it won;t happen. Just being extra cautious after jumping on the band-wagon when these indications first started appearing in the longer ranges around mid-November. I'm just going this comes to fruition before the 19th or so. I come home to Houston on the 19th; obviously my chances of winter precipitation are much greater up 'in these parts'. :lol:
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weatherguy425 wrote:Haha, I'm not saying it won;t happen. Just being extra cautious after jumping on the band-wagon when these indications first started appearing in the longer ranges around mid-November. I'm just going this comes to fruition before the 19th or so. I come home to Houston on the 19th; obviously my chances of winter precipitation are much greater up 'in these parts'. :lol:

You never know. There many be slightly better chances for wintry mischief across Central/E TX/Louisiana than up in Lubbock this year. We will see.
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I freaking hate warm weather in December. Terrible!
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weatherguy425
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If your original thoughts on a southern Colorado storm track with an occasional coastal low comes to fruition, that definitely could be the case! Unfortunately :twisted:
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12Z GFS indicates some quite nice weather here for the next week, at least. Great biking weather for the weekend, though still a bit chilly for my tastes. But who can possibly complain about high temperatures in the upper-70s to 80 degrees. Sure beats highs in the 40s or 50s for outdoor activities. Unfortunately, the 12Z GFS indicates lows dipping into the 40s again by the following weekend (Dec 8-9).
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z European Deterministic Guidance continues to advertise a piece of all that cold building across Western Canada heading S in about 10 days or so.
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