November: Warm and Dry To End The Month

[wxman57]

**** WXMAN AND HIS 80S. HOW CAN HE BE SO CERTAIN OF THAT TWO WEEKS OUT? 80S?MODE NOVEMBER? WEAK FRONT WASHING OUT,? PATHETIC

Our long-range forecaster is a bit distraught about the pattern. He loves cold weather and just mentioned "warm Thanksgiving" for us. Record high for Nov. 22nd is 87 degrees, so probably no hope of seeing 90 but low 80s sounds great!

[Ptarmigan]

Our long-range forecaster is a bit distraught about the pattern. He loves cold weather and just mentioned "warm Thanksgiving" for us. Record high for Nov. 22nd is 87 degrees, so probably no hope of seeing 90 but low 80s sounds great!

Warm Thanksgiving? No thanks! YUCK! Thanksgiving should be cool.

[Karen]

I have afternoon plans tomorrow (Sunday) I see a high percentage of chance of rain. Is that all day or just frontal passage? I live down south and we have not seen much rain lately so I am wondering if it will dye out again when it approaches. Thanks

[srainhoutx]

I have afternoon plans tomorrow (Sunday) I see a high percentage of chance of rain. Is that all day or just frontal passage? I live down south and we have not seen much rain lately so I am wondering if it will dye out again when it approaches. Thanks

Karen, the better chances of rain are to our N and E near the Lufkin/Lake Livingston areas and that would probably be after dark tomorrow evening where the SPC has a Slight Risk of Severe Storms. There may be some streamer showers closer to the Coast on up toward the I-10 Corridor during the day, but it appears with the SW winds aloft, we'll remain capped across the region. The best chance of any strong to severe weather would be right ahead of the cold front during the early morning hours of Monday. I don't think we'll see to much rain in the Houston area with this front. It will turn chilly though once the front passes and we clear out rather quickly. Tuesday morning should the 'coldest morning' with low temps in the mid to upper 30's N of town and low 40's elsewhere.

[Karen]

Thanks looking forward to the cooler weather

[SusieinLP]

Well, I followed up to "Right of a line from".....then my eyes glazed over.....care to interpret ?

[srainhoutx]

Bascially from near College Station down to near Huntsville and NE from there...

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
OK/ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE AS IT CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS ON SUNDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT STEADILY SPREADING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND MUCH OF THE MS RIVER
VALLEY. THE PRIMARY TSTM/SEVERE POTENTIAL ON SUNDAY IS EXPECTED NEAR
THE FRONT ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK/ARKLATEX TO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY...WITH MUCH MORE MARGINAL/SPORADIC TSTM POTENTIAL INTO THE
MIDDLE/UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES VICINITIES.

...EASTERN OK/ARKLATEX TO LOWER MS VALLEY...
EXTENSIVE CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING NEAR THE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT...LIKELY FROM NORTHERN
MO/SOUTHEAST KS INTO CENTRAL OK AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD /12Z SUNDAY/. AHEAD OF THE FRONT/ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...THE
AIRMASS SHOULD GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE ACROSS EAST TX INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST OK AND AR/WESTERN LA INTO THE AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MULTILAYER CLOUDS SHOULD LIMIT THE DEGREE OF BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMING/DESTABILIZATION. EVEN SO...LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S F
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AS MUCH AS 750-1250 J/KG MLCAPE
BY AFTERNOON.

TSTM INTENSIFICATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE GIVEN THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE
FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR...SUGGESTING A PREDOMINANT LINEAR MODE.
STRONGER DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE VERTICAL SHEAR /40-55 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR/...AND POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED LINEAR STRUCTURES. THIS
INCLUDES THE POSSIBILITY OF LEWP/BOWING SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS SOME
EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF TORNADO MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

...OZARKS/MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
A FORCED BAND OF CONVECTION EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
DAY...AND ISOLATED STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT OVER PARTS OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN AND
INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIMITED NEAR/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING
FRONT...WITH MUCH OF THE CONVECTION POSSIBLY HAVING VERY LITTLE OR
NO CLOUD-GROUND LIGHTNING.

..GUYER.. 11/10/2012

[djjordan]

Houston Texans are going to be at Soldier Field in Chicago Sunday night when this front goes through. Gonna be interesting weather for them as they take on Da Bears. Very gusty winds starting out southerly and turning NNW as the front passes. NWS Chicago saying winds could gust as high as 40MPH Sunday Evening/Night. Not to mention any rain in the area makes for a more difficult game.

[skidog40]

This cold front has Houston mets scared to forecast. 80S 70S Sunday no, 60s 70s no 50s 80s. winter doesn't start till end of dec.
i say 40s late tomorrow night. and for jan. hide

[wxman57]

Overnight GFS indicating low 40s on Tue-Thu with highs in the 60s. Looks reasonable. My plane leaves for Orlando at 10:25 this morning. No significant cold front there!

[srainhoutx]

SPC has placed the Slight Risk a bit closer to the Houston Metro, but still to our N. We may see that Slight Risk moved a tad further S today in future updates but that remains to be seen. It appears a quall line with the Polar cold front will be our best chance of rain and storms later this evening. Tomorrow will feel much different than day with blustery NW winds and temps falling into the 50's/upper 60's. Tomorrow night and early Wednesday may see areas flirt with some near freezing temps N of the area and in Central Texas.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0657 AM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

VALID 111300Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM E TX AND THE ARKLATEX INTO
PARTS OF THE OZARKS AND LWR MS VLY...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP RCKYS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE E INTO THE PLNS TODAY AND INTO THE
MID/UPR MS VLY EARLY MON. IN ITS WAKE...ZONAL FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD
THE WEST. SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER NM
SHOULD TURN NEWD THIS AFTN...REACHING ERN KS BY THIS EVE AND WI
EARLY MON.

SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPR TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE
INTO WRN ONT TODAY AS TRAILING POLAR COLD FRONT CONTINUES ESE ACROSS
THE MID MS VLY...OZARKS...AND ERN PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS. THE SRN
PART OF THE FRONT WILL OVERTAKE REMAINING PORTION OF PACIFIC FRONT
OVER ERN OK AND CNTRL TX LATER TODAY. THE PACIFIC FRONT LIKELY WILL
SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONG TO SVR TSTMS THIS PERIOD.

....E TX/ARKLATEX/SRN OZARKS TODAY/TNGT...
MODERATE SFC-BASED INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF PACIFIC
COLD FRONT TODAY...WITH SBCAPE EXPECTED TO BE AOA 1000 J/KG FROM ERN
OK/WRN AR S AND SW INTO E TX/WRN LA BY EARLY AFTN. COUPLED WITH
GLANCING INFLUENCE OF NM UPR IMPULSE...AND ARRIVAL OF SOMEWHAT MORE
MOISTURE-RICH RETURN FLOW /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
F/...THE DESTABILIZATION SHOULD FOSTER INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS
ALONG THE FRONT...AND/OR DEVELOPMENT OF NEW STORMS JUST AHEAD OF IT.

50-60 KT DEEP SWLY SHEAR WILL PERSIST OVER REGION...SUPPORTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. WITH A MAJORITY OF THE
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO FOCUS ALONG THE FRONT...THE PREDOMINANT
CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE QUASI-LINEAR. HOWEVER...SOMEWHAT CONFLUENT
LOW-LVL...PRE-FRONTAL FLOW BENEATH APPRECIABLE UPR DIVERGENCE
SUGGESTS THAT POTENTIAL ALSO WILL EXIST FOR A FEW DISCRETE OR
SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS IF CAP IS BREACHED AHEAD OF THE LINE. THESE
COULD POSE AN ISOLD TORNADO RISK GIVEN CURVED LOW-LVL HODOGRAPHS
WITH SUBSTANTIAL SPEED SHEAR...ESPECIALLY FROM E TX/NW LA INTO CNTRL
AR. HOWEVER...PRE-FRONTAL STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE WDLY SCTD AT
BEST...AND FCST WIND PROFILES SHOW LOW TO MID-LVL BACK-VEER PATTERNS
THAT ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THUS...THE MAIN SVR THREAT
SHOULD BE WIND DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH SMALL-SCALE BOWS LIKELY TO
EVOLVE ALONG THE FRONTAL SQUALL-LINE. SOME HAIL ALSO MAY
OCCUR...MAINLY IN TX.

THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST THIS AFTN INTO EARLY TNGT AND
SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TNGT AS THE NM IMPULSE CONTINUES NEWD AWAY
FROM AREA OF GREATEST MOISTURE RETURN...AND SQUALL LINE MOVES E
BEYOND RELATIVELY NARROW AXIS OF RETURN FLOW.

..CORFIDI/SMITH.. 11/11/2012

12Z HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh):

[srainhoutx]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2117
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1012 AM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN TX...SWRN AR...FAR SERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 111612Z - 111815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...N/S-ORIENTED BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL TSTMS MAY ACQUIRE
TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES BY MIDDAY. ALTHOUGH BUOYANCY IS
WEAK...STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE A LOW-END RISK FOR
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

DISCUSSION...N/S-ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS...ROUGHLY FROM 25 SW PRX TO
50 S CRS AT 16Z...HAS INITIATED IN THE PAST HALF HOUR. INTERPOLATED
PROFILER/VWP DATA INDICATE FAVORABLE 0-1 KM SHEAR FOR LOW-LEVEL
ROTATION. HOWEVER...WEAKNESS IN THE HODOGRAPH AROUND 2-3 KM AGL
/ESPECIALLY WITH SRN EXTENT/ SHOULD LIMIT SUSTAINABILITY OF
SUPERCELL UPDRAFTS WITHIN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. ALTHOUGH
SURFACE HEATING IS BEING RETARDED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER...THERE
IS CONCERN FOR A LOW-END TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND RISK THAT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A WW ISSUANCE BY MIDDAY.

..GRAMS/WEISS.. 11/11/2012


ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...

[srainhoutx]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1032 AM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-121645-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
1032 AM CST SUN NOV 11 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS BEGINNING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST AREAS AND REACHING THE COAST
AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE...MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
COLLEGE STATION TO HUNTSVILLE TO CLEVELAND...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND HAIL THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A COLDER AIR MASS WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. LOW
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO APPROACH THE FREEZING LEVEL MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
A LINE FROM BRENHAM TO CONROE TO MOSS HILL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MIGHT BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

[srainhoutx]

[tireman4]

The front is right north of Navasota and slowing getting here....

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... =10&wxsn=1

[ticka1]

dont think we will be getting much rain and we need it badly

[srainhoutx]

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
711 AM CST MON NOV 12 2012

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS AND THE HILL COUNTRY...

.A COOL AND VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THIS EVENING...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
FALL RAPIDLY LATE TONIGHT. THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE FALL SEASON IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM MOUNTAIN
HOME TO KENDALIA TO BASTROP TO GIDDINGS. THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 30 TO 32 DEGREE RANGE FOR JUST A
FEW HOURS AND MAINLY OVER LOW LYING AREAS.

TXZ171>173-186-188>194-122200-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FZ.W.0001.121113T0800Z-121113T1500Z/
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-KERR-GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-
BASTROP-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...
KERRVILLE...FREDERICKSBURG...BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...
AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS
711 AM CST MON NOV 12 2012

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
FREEZE WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM CST
TUESDAY.

* TEMPERATURE...EARLY MORNING LOWS OF 29 TO 32 DEGREES.

* IMPACTS...A LIGHT FREEZE MAY DAMAGE OR KILL TENDER VEGETATION.

[drmasommer]

I noted a large and very cold air mass in Canada and heading south. Will this polar air drive into south Texas and when might we expect the arrival.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Strong cold front has moved into the Gulf of Mexico overnight with much colder conditions and gusty winds now in place across the area.

Morning temperatures are starting out in the upper 40’s to mid 50’s across the region under clearing skies and gusty NW winds. Upstream temperatures have fallen to near freezing over the Dallas area and this second push of colder air will arrive during the day today. Expect highs only in the mid 60’s even with full sun as cold air advection offsets solar heating. Little change is expected through much of the week as high pressure controls from the north with a cool and dry air mass in place through the end of the week. Lows both Tuesday and Wednesday mornings could get close to the freezing mark over our northern counties.

Winds will attempt to swing around to the SE by this weekend, but moisture return will be slow with several days of offshore flow this week and do not expect much in the way of rain chances until maybe early next week. It is starting to get dry as most of the October rainfall was well below normal. Hopefully we can get into a pattern shift and more active storm track by the middle to end of this month.

[srainhoutx]

I noted a large and very cold air mass in Canada and heading south. Will this polar air drive into south Texas and when might we expect the arrival.

We'll likely have to wait until after Thanksgiving before we see a big change in the pattern that would bring threats pushing that cold air this far S. Right now the pattern is such that we are stuck with a somewhat split pattern where storms systems enter Canada and drop into the Great Lakes Region and along the East Coast and High Pressure Ridge remains in control across the Great Basin and Intermountain West. There are 'hints' that the continued development of EC Coastal lows or potential Nor'easters are in the cards with a blocking regime over Greenland and the Hudson Bay Region as troughiness drop S to our E. What we'll need to watch for 'locally' is some increasing moisture next week in time for Thanksgiving. There are indications that a series of West Coast Pacific storms systems will increase snow cover across Canada and the Gulf will open up and moisture will increase next week. My hunch is a pattern change that may be conducive to allowing that building cold air to our N may begin to make intrusions into the Lower 48 the last week of November/early December. That said there appears to be little chance of El Nino developing during late Fall/Winter as some had speculated. That would tend to mean 'dryer' conditions across Texas unless we can get some sub tropical jet activity from the Eastern Pacific to cooperate. I also suspect the main storm track will be across Southern Colorado ejecting ENE into the Plains. That doesn't mean that we couldn't see a Coastal low develop from time to time, but those that had been hoping for a wet and cold winter may have to wait a while longer. We will see.