July: Hot & Humid To End The Month

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weatherguy425
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I know all of our eyes are still focused on Debby, but the end of the month is near and for a few runs the GFS has been showing this massive ridge weakening, or a weakness developing over our area with perhaps some tropical moisture being involved.
Last edited by srainhoutx on Wed Aug 01, 2012 8:57 am, edited 13 times in total.
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ticka1
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Good question but I don't this is the ridge we had last summer! We will have rain again - just not sure when.
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Ptarmigan
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Hopefully we'll get rain in July and good ones. 8-)
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Ridge isnt anything like the 108 degree weather we saw last year.
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srainhoutx
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The overnight guidance has come into better agreement suggesting a tropical easterly wave will move out of the NW Caribbean into the Gulf this coming weekend. PW's increase to near 2.0 as the heat ridge breaks down and a return flow off the Gulf become established during the last couple of day in June. The best chance for rain appears to be Sunday as a upper level disturbance become a player over S Texas providing better lift and better moisture saturation with no capping. This onshore pattern appears to linger into the 4th of July Holiday period as well. Something to monitor as we head toward the July 4th Holiday.
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weatherguy425
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Models look a little less encouraging for even light rainfall amounts the next 16 days, especially the GFS. This really isn't what I was wanting to hear. With the heat this past week or so you can barely even tell it rained. I'm again seeing numerous pine tress take on that "yellow" color.
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srainhoutx
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The overnight operational guidance is a bit more hopeful with increasing rain chances as we begin July. Moisture streams in from the NW Caribbean into the Gulf as 500mb upper low/trough rotates beneath the Central/East Coast Ridge as a weakness develops across the Southern half of Texas putting us on the E side of that disturbance. PW's look to increase to near the 2.0 range and bring increasing shower/storm chances for Central/SE Texas as an onshore flow increases. Convective temps look to decrease to the 80's allowing sea breeze showers/storms to stream inland from the Gulf spreading inland Saturday into Sunday. We will see.
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z guidance continues to advertise increasing Gulf moisture as our winds turn E to ESE and PW's increase beginning late Thursday. By Saturday, a 500mb low/upper trough develops across S Texas and moisture streams NW from the Bay of Campeche. A SE wind flow and lower convective temps with no capping should do the trick to spark showers/storms beginning Saturday and increasing Sunday. Coastal Counties along the Middle/Upper Texas Coast could begin to see streamer showers as early as Friday. The upper dynamics with the upper air trough/low to our SW should bring favorable conditions for scattered storms. Also there will likely be a chance of brief tropical funnels with this kind of setup. Dry air should begin to shift back in on Monday as the ridge once again builds across Texas.

HPC:

AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE UNDER THE
WARM CORE RIDGE IN THE PLAINS...BRINGING SOME RAINS TO SOUTHERN
TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND MONSOONAL
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTHWEST/NORTHWEST MEXICO NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
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06272012 223Z HPC QPF Forecast 5 Day p120i00.gif
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weatherguy425
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Good thing as that ECMWF keeps warmest temps over Mississippi valley through next Wednesday or so, and hints at a few disturbances rotating through the area ( especially next Tuesday), so when the high pressure does build back in hopefully it wont be with as much strength as we're dealing with now.
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wxman57
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It's been quite rainy in my neighborhood this year. Already recorded over 5" in June, making the total for 2012 39.88", highest by about 5" when looking at the HCOEM website rain history for the past 180 days. That's twice what I got last year, and I don't think I've ever recorded nearly 40" of rain the first half of any year.
weatherguy425
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Wxman, ECMWF seems to only portray weak ridging next week and hints at daily seabreeze activity, GFS as well as the ECMWF show a stalling boundary to our north and east which I'm taking could also be a focus for rain. Do you think next week may not be as dry as originally thought?
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srainhoutx
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There are some early indications of several disturbances rotating W beneath the Central/East Coast Ridge and a stalling boundary off to our E. It is also interesting to note that our old friend, the monsoonal trough may lift out of Central America once again into the NW Caribbean/Western Gulf of Mexico in the longer range as well as a Kelvin Wave approaching across the EPAC. We will see.
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srainhoutx wrote:There are some early indications of several disturbances rotating W beneath the Central/East Coast Ridge and a stalling boundary off to our E. It is also interesting to note that our old friend, the monsoonal trough may lift out of Central America once again into the NW Caribbean/Western Gulf of Mexico in the longer range as well as a Kelvin Wave approaching across the EPAC. We will see.
:roll: Our good friend. :lol:
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Portastorm
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I would like that "old friend" to visit more often, ya know?!
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wxman57
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The 4th looks like a typical summer day. High into the 93-96F range with isolated daytime showers to cool things off in spots.
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srainhoutx
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Scattered showers and storms will be the theme for one more day, although not as widespread as the upper low near Monterrey slowly slides further W and a trough axis near Galveston Bay weakens. Edit to add: PW's are running in the 2.3-2.4 range over Houston E of the precip just of to our W as seen on current radar imagery. We did get some early morning sun and that may be enough to spark a bit more rainfall than was expected today. We will see. The ridge then builds back into the Plains and Mid West allowing for temps to increase to the mid 90's inland and near 90 along the Coast with isolated sea breeze showers/storms that are more typical of a Texas 4th of July Holiday week.

Image

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
639 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-021200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
639 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AVERAGE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH...HOWEVER LOCALIZED 1 TO 3 INCH
AMOUNTS ARE A POSSIBILITY SHOULD ANY TRAINING HEAVIER CELLS
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07012012 HGX 4th Of July image_full4.gif
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jasons2k
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.48" yesterday, .05" overnight = .53" storm total. Hoping for more today :-)
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Portastorm
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The Great Austin Rain Shield must be down for maintenance. We've had several showers in the last eight hours. Not much in the rain bucket but hey ... it's something! :D
weatherguy425
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Now that we're on the outer eastern "edge" of the very visually organized system...it almost appears a banding situation could develop, IMO. Watching moisture train over Harris county as well as convection firing down towards Freeport and Victoria.
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srainhoutx
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As expected, HGX has increased the percentages across the area based on further developing showers and storms across the region. As we mentioned in the June thread, these slow moving upper lows tend to give computer models fits and I would not be at all surprised to see a bit of a repeat tomorrow as that upper low in Mexico slowly creeps W and signals the beginning of the monsoon season across the Desert SW...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1044 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE GOING TREND THIS MORNING IS TO HAVE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS THEY MOVE INLAND OFF THE GULF. UPPER LOW
STILL SUPPORTIVE OF SCT ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE WEST THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WILL KEEP 50/60
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SCT ACTIVITY BUT MAY NEED TO UPDATE
LATER TODAY. STILL SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE LOWER/MID
TX COAST THAT MAY PUSH INTO SE TX PRIMARILY WEST OF HOUSTON FROM
KPSX TO KCLL. STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A SLIGHT CHANGE
IN THE AIRMASS WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES DROPPING BELOW 2 INCHES
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR ON GOING
PRECIP TRENDS AS WELL AS SOME TWEAKS TO MAX TEMP FORECAST. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN THE 80S BUT MAY SEE A BREAK OR TWO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO LOW 90S MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.


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