July: Hot & Humid To End The Month

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niner21
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Oh Lawd have mercy, oh lawd 50 year drought.... Oh lawd and baby lawd, globals warmings oh lawd!!!

Man, back to "normal" after a "record" drought. What is a year to the earth, a gnat fart in time? Honestly.

Wonder if they'll be 3-4 hurricanes in a row so we can all blame it on the Mayan calendar or SUV exhaust.
biggerbyte
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Wow, niner, you seem very knowledgable on the issue. I'm curious... When was the last time the weather has been so off balance and strange in the US, and really across the rest of the earth? An era, I mean, and then it normalized afterwards? Can you point us to some official record keeping to compare today's records too? Also, let's get these scientist headed in the right direction. What is your personal diagnoses and prognosis for mother earth for the short, and long term? Tell us what method you use to substantiate your opinion?

Thanks
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srainhoutx
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One more day of isolated sea breeze pulse type storm then things are looking wet. What is interesting is the agreement that most of next week will bring a very strong chance of daily showers/storms across much of the Central/SE TX Region and we could some of these totals come close to verifying, then Flood Flooding issues may become a problem as the stalled frontal boundary washes out across the area. Stalled frontal boundaries and moist tropical air with PW's over the 2.2+ range can often lead to a bad mix. We will see.

HPC QPF Forecast updated this morning through day 5...
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07062012 1130Z HPC QPF Forcast Day 5 p120i12.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Portastorm
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I preferred yesterday's guidance with a more east-west oriented swath of beneficial rains. But I certainly won't sniff at an inch of rainfall here in the capital of Texas. ;)
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jasons2k
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I hope that map verfies - I would love to see about 2" at my house. I can't get my hopes up yet - I've been burned too many times, even in this year of more plentiful rainfall. The last event (before the whole Debby tease) seemed like such a sure thing for days and days and days, & then at the last minute everything shifted NW, and I was left with a few sprinkles while the DFW area got completely soaked. Maybe this time will be different? Let's hope...
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Ptarmigan
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srainhoutx wrote:One more day of isolated sea breeze pulse type storm then things are looking wet. What is interesting is the agreement that most of next week will bring a very strong chance of daily showers/storms across much of the Central/SE TX Region and we could some of these totals come close to verifying, then Flood Flooding issues may become a problem as the stalled frontal boundary washes out across the area. Stalled frontal boundaries and moist tropical air with PW's over the 2.2+ range can often lead to a bad mix. We will see.

HPC QPF Forecast updated this morning through day 5...
What the HPC QPF forecast does not forecast well are small areas that can get extremely heavy rains in the neighbor of +10 inches of rain. I am not saying it will happen, but something to think about.
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srainhoutx
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The updated HPC surface charts are out and they do paint an interesting picture for the Lone Star State. A stalled frontal boundary with an inverted trough in the neighborhood as well as abundant tropical moisture from an Easterly Wave. That recipe bears watching and to add to the mix is I will be out of town attending American Weather Conference II with special guest speakers Jack Beven (Senior Forecaster/NHC), David Roth (Operational Forecaster/HPC), Paul Kocin (Operational Forecaster/HPC Winter Storm Specialist) and Wes Junker (Opeartional Forecaster/HPC Retired). Gene and David as well as our team are aware that I will be traveling, so keep an eye out for their updates. ;)
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07062012 1830Z HPC Surface Charts 5dayfcst_wbg.gif
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jasons2k
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Ptarmigan wrote: What the HPC QPF forecast does not forecast well are small areas that can get extremely heavy rains in the neighbor of +10 inches of rain. I am not saying it will happen, but something to think about.
Well, to split hairs, I wouldn't say they don't forecast it well; they just typically don't pinpoint or forecast those types QPF totals at all, ever, unless there is some compelling short-term reason to do so (like a landfalling TC). That's not just the HPC, that's anyone. Even if 12" of rain was pinpointed and bullseyed on every model right over downtown Houston for Monday, nobody would actually forecast 12" of rain. They may mention as a "possibility" in the AFD, HWA, emails, whatever, but nobody would say it in the forecast until downtown already had 6" of rain in the bucket, streets already flooded, buildings evacuating, and a train line extended out into the Gulf and another 4-6" seemed imminent, then it MIGHT make the forecast at that point. Just sayin' as it's all about the odds of such an extreme event actually verifying. Ahh..the joys of balancing prudently warning the public vs. crying wolf vs. verification scores.
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jasons2k
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srainhoutx wrote:The updated HPC surface charts are out and they do paint an interesting picture for the Lone Star State.
Nice :-) I just hope it doesn't all get concentrated from San Angelo to Shreveport :mrgreen:

Have a safe trip, Steve - we will miss you.
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srainhoutx
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Here is a snip from NWS Austin/San Antonio this afternoon:

THE WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
RIDGE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO
FALL AND PW`S EXCEEDING 2 INCHES ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPAND
WESTWARD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AS A RESULT. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
MIGRATES WESTWARD TO CENTER NEAR THE 4-CORNERS ON MONDAY...
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT INTO THE REGION.
MOISTURE POOLING AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SLOWLY MOVING
AND DYING BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY..WILL INCREASE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND LIKELY PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINS IN THE LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN
GOOD BUOYANCY AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. BY THURSDAY...CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL LOWER AS DRIER NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE AND
BEGIN ADVECTING DRIER AIR SOUTH IN THE LOWER LEVELS. HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK FRIDAY AS THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BUILDS
EAST. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT FRIDAY WITH THE RESIDUAL GROUND MOISTURE
EXPECTED COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING.


And from Houston/Galveston:

WILL BUMP POPS UPWARD IF THE STORMS OVER LOUISIANA
HOLD TOGETHER. AS FOR SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE WEST BENEATH AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
RETREAT NORTH AND LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES. PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE BUT THE SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME DRY AIR SO AM A BIT SKEPTICAL THAT POPS WILL BE MORE
THAN ISOLATED. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS EAST IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND TAPER POPS LOWER TO THE WEST. ON SUNDAY...THE RIDGE BASICALLY
SPLITS IN TWO WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFYING AND A TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEAST U.S. RETROGRADING AND DEEPENING. HEIGHTS CONTINUE
TO FALL OVER SE TX AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE. THE WEAKNESS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND PW
VALUES WILL EXCEED 2.2 INCHES SO FEEL HIGH RAIN CHANCES ARE
WARRANTED. JET DYNAMICS ALSO LOOK SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE TUES/WED
WITH A SPLITTING JET STRUCTURE AND LFQ TUES NIGHT. SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE FURTHER EAST AND
THIS PUSHES THE UPPER TROUGH EAST...LOWERING RAIN CHANCES FOR SE
TX. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP THE RIDGE FURTHER WEST AND THIS
ALLOWS THE WEAKNESS TO REMAIN OVERHEAD. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
END CHANCE POPS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT NOD TOWARD
THE ECMWF. TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
AND CLOUD COVER.


Edit to add: There is a upper level disturbance is currently S of Louisiana and that feature should meander W over the weekend. Also of note is a tropical wave moving WNW across the Central Caribbean and that will bring some additional deep tropical moisture into the mix as the fronatl boundary begins to sag S early next week.
Attachments
07062012 1930Z Gulf VIS latest.jpg
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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jasons2k
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Water vapor looks good - I am optimistic about this weekend's rain chances.
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srainhoutx
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The overnight guidance has come into rather good agreement with a complicated and complex weather pattern developing from the Southern Rockies on E to the East Coast. The heat ridge that has brought record high temps across the Central and Eastern US will begin to break down and retreat W into the Great Basin and embedded mid/upper air disturbance rotate W under that retreating Ridge along the Gulf Coast. Lowering heights across Texas and increasing deep tropical moisture with PW's in the 2.2 to 2.4 range will become established across the Eastern half of the Lone Star State today and meander W tomorrow. A developing trough over the Great Lakes will activate a slow moving frontal boundary on Monday which will sag S into Central/SE Texas and on E before pulling up stationary. As a weak northerly flow aloft develops N of that boundary, and onshore flow at the surface develops S of that front bringing increasing Gulf and Western Caribbean tropical moisture surging inland and setting the stage for a multi day rainfall event that has some potential to linger into next weekend. The fly in the ointment is the potential for very slow moving high rainfall rate storms to develop and training potential is not out of the question. Folks should be prepared for daily storm chances and copious rainfall rates over the next 5-7 days as the upper air pattern collapses and conditions become stagnant with little or very slow moving tropical downpours. I would not be surprised to see some locations receiving 5-6 inch+ rainfall totals from this upcoming very wet multi day pattern.

HGX:

A WET WEATHER PATTERN MOVING INTO THE REGION TODAY AND WILL REMAIN
THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND MAY WELL STILL BE OVER THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND. THE RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN BRINGING THE HEAT TO THE
EASTERN U.S. WEAKENING AND LIFTING A LITTLE NORTH WHICH WILL BRING
ABUNDANT MOISTURE (PW 2-2.35") WEST AND ACROSS THE AREA BY SUNDAY
MORNING. DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD DRIVE SHRA/TSRA TODAY WITH
SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING BY 2 PM. STORM MOTIONS SHOULD SLOW
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...SLOWER SUNDAY. LITTLE IF ANY INHIBITION WILL BE PRESENT
BY NOON WITH THE SEABREEZE MOVING INLAND LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
S/W OVER LA WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON SO GIVEN THE
ABOVE HAVE RAISED RAIN CHANCES OVER MOST OF AREA. RAIN CHANCES
REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK AS RIDGE SPLITS AND TROUGHING
DEVELOPS DOWN THE MISSISSIPPI AND THEN RETROGRADES OVER THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST. WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP THROUGH OKLAHOMA MONDAY
AND BE MOVING INTO SETX OR JUST TO THE NORTH OF SETX TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...BECOMING ANOTHER FOCUS FOR RAINFALL. CLOUD COVER WILL
BE MUCH GREATER THIS WEEK AND SO HAVE BEGUN TO DIAL DOWN THE
AFTERNOON HIGHS AND STARTED NUDGING UP THE DEWPOINTS. KEEP THE
UMBRELLAS HANDY THIS WEEK IF YOU DON`T WANT TO GET WET.
Attachments
07072012 00Z GFS Ensembles 00zgfsensemblep120120.gif
07072012 12Z HPC QPF Day 5 p120i12.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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jasons2k
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Today looks like a good chance for rain. Moisture is in place, we are getting some heating this morning to destabilize things, and the area of storms to the east should easily spread into our area.
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Portastorm
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As always, great discussion Steve! I'm very encouraged by the overnight developments in the modeling and the latest 5-day QPF prog. Ample rainfall for central, south central, and southeast Texas should it verify. :D
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Louisiana convection is releasing an outflow boundary which should help homegrown activity to start popping within the next couple of hours, I'm thinking it''form northeast of Houston and slide southwest.
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A lot of moisture increase from the south and east. Water Vapor really paints this well

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html
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Andrew wrote:A lot of moisture increase from the south and east. Water Vapor really paints this well

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html
Yeah, pwats appear to be at or over 2.0 inches for the northeastern 2/3of southeast Texas. Numerous boundaries just ahead of the convection directly associated with this disturbance will likely aid thunderstorm development the next few hours.
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z guidance continues to advertise a wet pattern for the foreseeable future. The only wrinkle is with the mid/upper air disturbance currently to our E over Louisiana and just how much further W that feature meanders. We are sort of in a strange place regarding climo with the forecasted stalling frontal boundary just to our N, and HGX explains this well in their afternoon update. One thing is for certain, we are not in a pattern like the past couple of years when we couldn't buy a rain drop to save our lives...;)

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
332 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. IN THE
MEANTIME...SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THE ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE INVERTED TROF THAT HAS SLOWLY BEEN
TRAVELING THE NRN GULF COAST FURTHER WWD INTO THE UPPER TX
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT & SUN. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSTMS
TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARD MORNING IN THE WATERS AND
NEAR THE COAST. THEN AS YOU ADD DAYTIME HEATING, LOW CONVECTIVE
TEMPS AND DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE EQUATION - EXPECT SCT
ACTIVITY TO SPREAD INLAND AND INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THRU THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

RINSE AND REPEAT QUITE POSSIBLY FOR THE NEXT 6-10 DAYS AS A
TROF/SHEAR AXIS/WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY TAKES
SHAPE BY MIDWEEK AND WAFFLES ABOUT FROM THE GREAT LAKES-MS
VALLEY-S TX AREA.

IN THE SHORT TERM INTO THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD IT APPEARS BEST
MOISTURE WILL BE SITUATED ALONG & NORTH OF I-10. SOME MODELS ARE
STILL TRYING TO BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO TX AND STALL IT AS
FAR S AS THE CLL AREA TUE/WED. THIS WOULD ALSO BRING A FOCUS FOR
HEAVIER PRECIP. NOT EXACTLY CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUCH A
SCENARIO IN JULY - BUT STRANGER THINGS HAVE OCCURRED AND WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT. REGARDLESS...STORM STEERING FLOW REMAINS
FAIRLY WEAK SO ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR THE SLOWER MOVING STRONGER
CELLS TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.

07072012 20Z HPC Days 1 to 3 QPF d13_fill.gif
07072012 HPC 5 Day QPF p120i00.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
TXC225-455-072200-
/O.NEW.KHGX.SV.W.0134.120707T2130Z-120707T2200Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
430 PM CDT SAT JUL 7 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTHEASTERN HOUSTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL TRINITY COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 427 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 9
MILES SOUTHWEST OF WELLS...OR 22 MILES EAST OF CROCKETT...AND
MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KENNARD.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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jgreak
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Enjoy your rain, Houston. Kingwood got skipped over again...
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