July: Hot & Humid To End The Month

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srainhoutx
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With a few left over boundaries to our N and showers streaming inland off the Gulf, today and tomorrow may offer an isolated chance of some lucky folks getting some rain. The guidance continues to advertise a late weekend Westward moving inverted trough/upper low moving along the Louisiana Gulf Coast as well.
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07032012 12Z GFS f36.gif
07032012 1430Z TX VIS latest.jpg
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srainhoutx
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^
Yes sir. Just got power back after a healthy little storm.
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srainhoutx
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Looking ahead to the coming weekend and into next week, the 12Z guidance and ensembles are very suggestive of a rather potent storm system creeping W under the Ridge and rain chance look to increase as PW's near the 2.0 range and very low convective temps become commonplace across the Eastern half of Texas. The GFS and Canadian also suggest a stalling frontal boundary may come into play during the first half of next week providing additional dynamics for producing some widespread rainfall across the region. We will see.
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07032012 12Z GFS Ensembles 12zgfsensemblep120192.gif
07032012 12Z Euro Ensembles 12zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNA168.gif
07032012 12Z Euro Ensembles 12zecmwfens850mbTSLPUS192.gif
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http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

Look at all the potential for rainfall over the coming days..
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srainhoutx
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I hope everyone had a great 4th of July Holiday. Now attention turns E as an inverted trough/upper air disturbances meanders W under the Ridge along the Northern Gulf Coast. PW's increase to the 2.0+ range this coming weekend as a stronger return flow of Gulf moisture moves inland across the Eastern Half of the Lone Star State. Early next week a slow moving frontal boundary is expected to sag S as a deep East Coast trough develops and the heat ridge shifts towards the West Coast. That slowly sagging boundary appears to be a focal point of healthy rainfall totals as well as a trapped trough across Texas as the upper air pattern becomes very weak. Daily scattered showers/storms should increase in coverage on Saturday and it looks like the upcoming work week will remain unsettled and stormy as well. We will see. One thing for certain, we are not in a pattern like last summer...;)
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07052012 00Z GFS Ensembles 00zgfsensemblep120192.gif
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srainhoutx
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Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Large ridge of high pressure over the central US into the eastern US will move slowly into the western US this weekend and this will keep TX on the southern edge of this high pressure dome. SE TX will continue to lie near the edge of the ridge allowing moisture and disturbances to approach and move into the area from the east over the next week.



Daily pattern of seabreeze showers and thunderstorms will continue today and Friday with 20-30% coverage during the afternoon hours. Storms have been really good rainfall producers where they have developed (I picked up 1.95 yesterday, and totaled 4.83 inches since last Thursday). Weak steering winds will yield slow storm motions and good rainfall under the stronger cores…a good example of a few will get a really good dumping while others only miles away remain dry.



Better chances for widespread rains move into the area this weekend into much of next week as several upper level lows look to move westward along the northern Gulf coast into TX. Each feature will bring with it an increase in moisture and a good chance at showers and thunderstorms as a tropical air mass moves back into the region. GFS is showing fairly high rain chances 50-60% each day starting on Saturday into the middle of next week and this seems reasonable given the forecasted favorable thermo profiles and general lack of ridging and subsidence aloft coupled with tropical moisture influx.



Overall not looking at significantly organized storms, just more coverage along the local seabreeze each afternoon and along outflow boundaries. Tropical air mass will continue to provide good rainfall rates, but lack of cell mergers and long lasting/training storms should negate any flooding threat. Increased rainfall and cloud cover will continue to hold temperatures in the lower 90’s for highs with muggy overnights in the mid 70’s (normal for this time of year). Oppressive humidity will continue to make it “feel” warmer than it actually is….but still a for cry from last summer!
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Bring it on, baby! Hoping for ample rainfall here in south central Texas.
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z GFS ensembles are encouraging for Central/SE Texas in the rainfall department...
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07052012 12Z GFS Ensembles 12zgfsensemblep120156.gif
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Kludge
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srainhoutx wrote:The 12Z GFS ensembles are encouraging for Central/SE Texas in the rainfall department...
Ha! :D I love that big "X" and "2.09" directly on top of my house. I'm praying for it. Only 1/8" here in the past 12 days while lots of you fine folks were scoring multiple inches.

Let's hope this graphic don't jinx us... :roll:
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srainhoutx
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Kludge wrote:
Ha! :D I love that big "X" and "2.09" directly on top of my house. I'm praying for it. Only 1/8" here in the past 12 days while lots of you fine folks were scoring multiple inches.

Let's hope this graphic don't jinx us... :roll:
The good news is the Euro is also now suggesting a stalling frontal boundary across Central/SE TX. That model had been a bit more reluctant in dropping the boundary closer to our area, so that may well be a bit more to be optimistic about. We will see.

HPC:

12Z UPDATE... BY DAYS 6-7 WED-THU THE GFS EXTENDS ITS HUDSON BAY
CLOSED LOW FARTHER SW/S THAN OTHER SOLNS BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED
THAN OTHER SOLNS WITH ITS TROF OFF THE WEST COAST. THE GEFS MEAN
IS STILL MOST AMPLIFIED WITH THE NERN TROF EARLY-MID PERIOD. SOME
ECMWF DETAILS WITHIN BOTH MEAN TROFS HAVE CHANGED BUT ARE STILL
WITHIN THE OVERALL GUIDANCE SPREAD. THE FINAL FCST IS LITTLE
CHANGED FROM THE UPDATED PRELIM ISSUANCE.


COLD FRONT BRINGING A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPS OVER MUCH OF THE
CNTRL-ERN STATES SHOULD STALL ONCE IT REACHES SRN/SERN AREAS NEXT
WEEK... INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD OF MULTIPLE PERIODS OF RNFL
DURING THE FCST PERIOD. MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR
SOME LOCALIZED TOTALS OF AT LEAST 2-6 INCHES FOR THE 5-DAY PERIOD
WITHIN A GENERAL AREA FROM THE SRN PLAINS THRU THE TN
VLY/SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLC. THIS RNFL WILL BEGIN TO EASE THE
VARYING INTENSITY OF DROUGHT CURRENTLY BEING EXPERIENCED OVER MOST
OF THIS AREA. ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY MAY BE A LITTLE LESS
WIDESPREAD/PERSISTENT... DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE CNTRL-SRN
ROCKIES AND GULF COAST/FL MAY ALSO GENERATE LOCALLY HVY RNFL.

CURRENT/RECENT FIRES MAY LEAD TO GREATER THAN AVERAGE POTENTIAL
FOR FLASH FLOODING IN THE VICINITY OF THE ROCKIES. EXPECT LIGHTER
AND MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THRU THE GRTBASIN
INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. DAYTIME TEMPS OVER THE WEST SHOULD BE QUITE
WARM WITH NRN AREAS PSBLY SEEING ONE OR MORE DAYS WITH HIGHS 10-15
F ABOVE NORMAL.
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Oh Lawd have mercy, oh lawd 50 year drought.... Oh lawd and baby lawd, globals warmings oh lawd!!!

Man, back to "normal" after a "record" drought. What is a year to the earth, a gnat fart in time? Honestly.

Wonder if they'll be 3-4 hurricanes in a row so we can all blame it on the Mayan calendar or SUV exhaust.
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Wow, niner, you seem very knowledgable on the issue. I'm curious... When was the last time the weather has been so off balance and strange in the US, and really across the rest of the earth? An era, I mean, and then it normalized afterwards? Can you point us to some official record keeping to compare today's records too? Also, let's get these scientist headed in the right direction. What is your personal diagnoses and prognosis for mother earth for the short, and long term? Tell us what method you use to substantiate your opinion?

Thanks
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srainhoutx
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One more day of isolated sea breeze pulse type storm then things are looking wet. What is interesting is the agreement that most of next week will bring a very strong chance of daily showers/storms across much of the Central/SE TX Region and we could some of these totals come close to verifying, then Flood Flooding issues may become a problem as the stalled frontal boundary washes out across the area. Stalled frontal boundaries and moist tropical air with PW's over the 2.2+ range can often lead to a bad mix. We will see.

HPC QPF Forecast updated this morning through day 5...
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07062012 1130Z HPC QPF Forcast Day 5 p120i12.gif
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I preferred yesterday's guidance with a more east-west oriented swath of beneficial rains. But I certainly won't sniff at an inch of rainfall here in the capital of Texas. ;)
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I hope that map verfies - I would love to see about 2" at my house. I can't get my hopes up yet - I've been burned too many times, even in this year of more plentiful rainfall. The last event (before the whole Debby tease) seemed like such a sure thing for days and days and days, & then at the last minute everything shifted NW, and I was left with a few sprinkles while the DFW area got completely soaked. Maybe this time will be different? Let's hope...
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srainhoutx wrote:One more day of isolated sea breeze pulse type storm then things are looking wet. What is interesting is the agreement that most of next week will bring a very strong chance of daily showers/storms across much of the Central/SE TX Region and we could some of these totals come close to verifying, then Flood Flooding issues may become a problem as the stalled frontal boundary washes out across the area. Stalled frontal boundaries and moist tropical air with PW's over the 2.2+ range can often lead to a bad mix. We will see.

HPC QPF Forecast updated this morning through day 5...
What the HPC QPF forecast does not forecast well are small areas that can get extremely heavy rains in the neighbor of +10 inches of rain. I am not saying it will happen, but something to think about.
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srainhoutx
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The updated HPC surface charts are out and they do paint an interesting picture for the Lone Star State. A stalled frontal boundary with an inverted trough in the neighborhood as well as abundant tropical moisture from an Easterly Wave. That recipe bears watching and to add to the mix is I will be out of town attending American Weather Conference II with special guest speakers Jack Beven (Senior Forecaster/NHC), David Roth (Operational Forecaster/HPC), Paul Kocin (Operational Forecaster/HPC Winter Storm Specialist) and Wes Junker (Opeartional Forecaster/HPC Retired). Gene and David as well as our team are aware that I will be traveling, so keep an eye out for their updates. ;)
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Ptarmigan wrote: What the HPC QPF forecast does not forecast well are small areas that can get extremely heavy rains in the neighbor of +10 inches of rain. I am not saying it will happen, but something to think about.
Well, to split hairs, I wouldn't say they don't forecast it well; they just typically don't pinpoint or forecast those types QPF totals at all, ever, unless there is some compelling short-term reason to do so (like a landfalling TC). That's not just the HPC, that's anyone. Even if 12" of rain was pinpointed and bullseyed on every model right over downtown Houston for Monday, nobody would actually forecast 12" of rain. They may mention as a "possibility" in the AFD, HWA, emails, whatever, but nobody would say it in the forecast until downtown already had 6" of rain in the bucket, streets already flooded, buildings evacuating, and a train line extended out into the Gulf and another 4-6" seemed imminent, then it MIGHT make the forecast at that point. Just sayin' as it's all about the odds of such an extreme event actually verifying. Ahh..the joys of balancing prudently warning the public vs. crying wolf vs. verification scores.
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srainhoutx wrote:The updated HPC surface charts are out and they do paint an interesting picture for the Lone Star State.
Nice :-) I just hope it doesn't all get concentrated from San Angelo to Shreveport :mrgreen:

Have a safe trip, Steve - we will miss you.
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Here is a snip from NWS Austin/San Antonio this afternoon:

THE WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
RIDGE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUE TO
FALL AND PW`S EXCEEDING 2 INCHES ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR. INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPAND
WESTWARD INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AS A RESULT. AS THE UPPER RIDGE
MIGRATES WESTWARD TO CENTER NEAR THE 4-CORNERS ON MONDAY...
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH A WEAK COOL FRONT INTO THE REGION.
MOISTURE POOLING AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SLOWLY MOVING
AND DYING BOUNDARY LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY..WILL INCREASE CHANCES
FOR RAIN AND LIKELY PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINS IN THE LATE MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN
GOOD BUOYANCY AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES. BY THURSDAY...CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL LOWER AS DRIER NORTHERLY WINDS ALOFT CONTINUE AND
BEGIN ADVECTING DRIER AIR SOUTH IN THE LOWER LEVELS. HEIGHTS ALOFT
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD BACK FRIDAY AS THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE BUILDS
EAST. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS NEXT FRIDAY WITH THE RESIDUAL GROUND MOISTURE
EXPECTED COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING.


And from Houston/Galveston:

WILL BUMP POPS UPWARD IF THE STORMS OVER LOUISIANA
HOLD TOGETHER. AS FOR SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE WEST BENEATH AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO
RETREAT NORTH AND LOWER HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES. PW VALUES ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE BUT THE SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME DRY AIR SO AM A BIT SKEPTICAL THAT POPS WILL BE MORE
THAN ISOLATED. WILL CARRY HIGHEST POPS EAST IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AND TAPER POPS LOWER TO THE WEST. ON SUNDAY...THE RIDGE BASICALLY
SPLITS IN TWO WITH THE WESTERN RIDGE AMPLIFYING AND A TROUGH OVER
THE NORTHEAST U.S. RETROGRADING AND DEEPENING. HEIGHTS CONTINUE
TO FALL OVER SE TX AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE. THE WEAKNESS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AND PW
VALUES WILL EXCEED 2.2 INCHES SO FEEL HIGH RAIN CHANCES ARE
WARRANTED. JET DYNAMICS ALSO LOOK SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE TUES/WED
WITH A SPLITTING JET STRUCTURE AND LFQ TUES NIGHT. SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS SHIFTS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE FURTHER EAST AND
THIS PUSHES THE UPPER TROUGH EAST...LOWERING RAIN CHANCES FOR SE
TX. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP THE RIDGE FURTHER WEST AND THIS
ALLOWS THE WEAKNESS TO REMAIN OVERHEAD. WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
END CHANCE POPS FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A SLIGHT NOD TOWARD
THE ECMWF. TEMPS WILL TREND COOLER NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
AND CLOUD COVER.


Edit to add: There is a upper level disturbance is currently S of Louisiana and that feature should meander W over the weekend. Also of note is a tropical wave moving WNW across the Central Caribbean and that will bring some additional deep tropical moisture into the mix as the fronatl boundary begins to sag S early next week.
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07062012 1930Z Gulf VIS latest.jpg
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