July: Hot & Humid To End The Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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txflagwaver
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Too far west to do much for my area
mckinne63
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Had some nice rain in Stafford earlier this morning. Looked like we would get more than we did. Still very cloudy with a nice breeze.
cisa
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Location: Porter, TX
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I'm getting a lot of thunder rumbling out here in Porter, but not a lot of precep... At least for now
No rain, no rainbows.
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jasons2k
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All the stuff to the south and east is cutting me off, keeping it too stable for us NW of the US 59 corridor. The first line this morning had a small split in it - went right around me. It's still early in the day though...maybe things will look better in a few hours.
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Katdaddy
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Glad to be back home from NTX and enjoy the tropical moisture. Picked up 1.09" today from 3 heavy tropical showers.
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jasons2k
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Just some sprinkles for me today. All the rain offshore with the clouds kept me from seeing anything. I am encouraged by the forecast discussion for tomorrow and this week. Sometimes the heavier rain can come on days when we get more sun and heating and then bigger storms can form in the afternoon. We'll see...at least this week won't be 100+ and totally parched :-) Typical summer weather is just fine with me.
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srainhoutx
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Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Wetting rains affect much of the area this past weekend helping to break the dry and hot pattern that had developed the last week of June. A few locations really were dumped on….NW Harris County and around Matagorda Bay.



Upper ridge is slowly building back across the region from the NE this morning with moisture profiles lowering from the extremely tropical levels on Saturday to more marginal levels today. Radar is quite this morning compared to the last 3 days where numerous showers and thunderstorms were already ongoing by this time offshore and along the coast. Drier air mass lurking offshore will spread inland today as upper level low and deep tropical moisture shift westward toward the Rio Grande plains and the area becomes increasingly under the influence of the building upper level high. Still think there will be just enough moisture today for a few seabreeze storms especially over our SW counties, but 20% should cover this.



Ridge builds in to the north of the area for much of the week, but not overhead like last week. E to ESE deep layer flow on the south side of this feature will support at least a slight chance of thunderstorms each day along the seabreeze with better chances possibly coming on Wednesday and then again toward the end of the week/weekend as weak disturbances/tropical waves pass by to our south briefly enhancing moisture. Without the ridge overhead along the the recent wetting rainfall highs will be in the low to mid 90’s instead of the low 100’s for much of the week.



All in all finally a more typical summer type pattern for the area with near/slightly above normal temperatures and a slight chance of daily afternoon thunderstorms.

Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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The 12Z guidance suggests a rather potent mid/upper low traversing W along the Gulf Coastal States under the Central/East Coast Ridge as we close out the first week of July. The Euro is suggesting a fairly significant increase in moisture with scattered showers/storms developing late Saturday into next Monday if that model is correct.

Edit to add: HPC Medium Range Final Discussion

A TUTT CELL/UPPER LOW FRACTURED OFF THE TAIL OF THE EASTERN TROUGH
IS EXPECTED RETROGRADE UNDER THE BASE OF THE WARM CORE RIDGE AND
SPREAD MODERATE RAINS FROM THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY/SATURDAY WESTWARD
ALONG/INLAND OF THE GULF COAST TOWARDS EASTERN TEXAS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR
RECENT EXTREME VALUES. THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD BE WET AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION...SPURRING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ALONG THE WAY.
Attachments
07022012 12Z Euro 12zeuro500mbHeightAnomalyNA168.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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weatherguy425
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TTU WRF models the sea-breeze to become active beginning tomorrow afternoon and especially Wednesday afternoon. NAM and some other short term models are a little less aggressive but the set-up doesn't look all that bad for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
biggerbyte
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DISCUSSION
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SEEMED TO SHIFT OVER INTO C TX WHERE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS HAS NOW SET UP. MOISTURE SHOULD DECREASE WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 1. 4 INCHES LATER TONIGHT. WILL KEEP 20 POPS FOR ISO ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON BUT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY TONIGHT. MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S LOOK ON TRACK WITH PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO INCREASE EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVERALL THINK MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN A QUESTION FOR EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER HIGH PLAINS OF CO/NM/TX/OK/KS SHOULD EXPAND OVER THE C PLAINS AND MIDWEST BY WED/THUR. RIDGE IS NOT EOXPECTED TO BECOME OVERPOWERING WITH SUBSIDENCE FOR SE TX THROUGH THE WEEK SO COULD SEE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME AFTERNOON STORMS. HIGHER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY COUPLED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDING UNDER THE RIDGE COULD SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. DECIDED TO SPREAD 30 POPS FOR MUCH OF THE SW AREAS. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS INTO THE WEEKEND. DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO REALLY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES REACHING 2 - 2. 2 INCHES FROM THE EAST AS POSSIBLY ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA. FORECAST WILL KEEP 20 POPS BUT THIS COULD BE ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. CHANCES LOOK BETTER ON THE COMING SUNDAY ESPECIALLY FOR E TX.
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