July: Hot & Humid To End The Month

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weatherguy425
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Wxman, ECMWF seems to only portray weak ridging next week and hints at daily seabreeze activity, GFS as well as the ECMWF show a stalling boundary to our north and east which I'm taking could also be a focus for rain. Do you think next week may not be as dry as originally thought?
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srainhoutx
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There are some early indications of several disturbances rotating W beneath the Central/East Coast Ridge and a stalling boundary off to our E. It is also interesting to note that our old friend, the monsoonal trough may lift out of Central America once again into the NW Caribbean/Western Gulf of Mexico in the longer range as well as a Kelvin Wave approaching across the EPAC. We will see.
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srainhoutx wrote:There are some early indications of several disturbances rotating W beneath the Central/East Coast Ridge and a stalling boundary off to our E. It is also interesting to note that our old friend, the monsoonal trough may lift out of Central America once again into the NW Caribbean/Western Gulf of Mexico in the longer range as well as a Kelvin Wave approaching across the EPAC. We will see.
:roll: Our good friend. :lol:
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Portastorm
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I would like that "old friend" to visit more often, ya know?!
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wxman57
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The 4th looks like a typical summer day. High into the 93-96F range with isolated daytime showers to cool things off in spots.
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srainhoutx
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Scattered showers and storms will be the theme for one more day, although not as widespread as the upper low near Monterrey slowly slides further W and a trough axis near Galveston Bay weakens. Edit to add: PW's are running in the 2.3-2.4 range over Houston E of the precip just of to our W as seen on current radar imagery. We did get some early morning sun and that may be enough to spark a bit more rainfall than was expected today. We will see. The ridge then builds back into the Plains and Mid West allowing for temps to increase to the mid 90's inland and near 90 along the Coast with isolated sea breeze showers/storms that are more typical of a Texas 4th of July Holiday week.

Image

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
639 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-
227-235>238-021200-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GALVESTON BAY-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-
MADISON-MATAGORDA-MATAGORDA BAY-MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-
TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-WHARTON-
639 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. AVERAGE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH...HOWEVER LOCALIZED 1 TO 3 INCH
AMOUNTS ARE A POSSIBILITY SHOULD ANY TRAINING HEAVIER CELLS
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07012012 HGX 4th Of July image_full4.gif
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jasons2k
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.48" yesterday, .05" overnight = .53" storm total. Hoping for more today :-)
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Portastorm
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The Great Austin Rain Shield must be down for maintenance. We've had several showers in the last eight hours. Not much in the rain bucket but hey ... it's something! :D
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Now that we're on the outer eastern "edge" of the very visually organized system...it almost appears a banding situation could develop, IMO. Watching moisture train over Harris county as well as convection firing down towards Freeport and Victoria.
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srainhoutx
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As expected, HGX has increased the percentages across the area based on further developing showers and storms across the region. As we mentioned in the June thread, these slow moving upper lows tend to give computer models fits and I would not be at all surprised to see a bit of a repeat tomorrow as that upper low in Mexico slowly creeps W and signals the beginning of the monsoon season across the Desert SW...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1044 AM CDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.UPDATE...
MORNING FORECAST UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE GOING TREND THIS MORNING IS TO HAVE SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AS THEY MOVE INLAND OFF THE GULF. UPPER LOW
STILL SUPPORTIVE OF SCT ACTIVITY THROUGH THE DAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL
SLOWLY MOVE WEST THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. WILL KEEP 50/60
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SCT ACTIVITY BUT MAY NEED TO UPDATE
LATER TODAY. STILL SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE LOWER/MID
TX COAST THAT MAY PUSH INTO SE TX PRIMARILY WEST OF HOUSTON FROM
KPSX TO KCLL. STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A SLIGHT CHANGE
IN THE AIRMASS WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES DROPPING BELOW 2 INCHES
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR ON GOING
PRECIP TRENDS AS WELL AS SOME TWEAKS TO MAX TEMP FORECAST. CLOUD
COVER SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN THE 80S BUT MAY SEE A BREAK OR TWO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON SO LOW 90S MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.


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Too far west to do much for my area
mckinne63
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Had some nice rain in Stafford earlier this morning. Looked like we would get more than we did. Still very cloudy with a nice breeze.
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I'm getting a lot of thunder rumbling out here in Porter, but not a lot of precep... At least for now
No rain, no rainbows.
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jasons2k
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All the stuff to the south and east is cutting me off, keeping it too stable for us NW of the US 59 corridor. The first line this morning had a small split in it - went right around me. It's still early in the day though...maybe things will look better in a few hours.
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Katdaddy
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Glad to be back home from NTX and enjoy the tropical moisture. Picked up 1.09" today from 3 heavy tropical showers.
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jasons2k
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Just some sprinkles for me today. All the rain offshore with the clouds kept me from seeing anything. I am encouraged by the forecast discussion for tomorrow and this week. Sometimes the heavier rain can come on days when we get more sun and heating and then bigger storms can form in the afternoon. We'll see...at least this week won't be 100+ and totally parched :-) Typical summer weather is just fine with me.
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srainhoutx
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Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Wetting rains affect much of the area this past weekend helping to break the dry and hot pattern that had developed the last week of June. A few locations really were dumped on….NW Harris County and around Matagorda Bay.



Upper ridge is slowly building back across the region from the NE this morning with moisture profiles lowering from the extremely tropical levels on Saturday to more marginal levels today. Radar is quite this morning compared to the last 3 days where numerous showers and thunderstorms were already ongoing by this time offshore and along the coast. Drier air mass lurking offshore will spread inland today as upper level low and deep tropical moisture shift westward toward the Rio Grande plains and the area becomes increasingly under the influence of the building upper level high. Still think there will be just enough moisture today for a few seabreeze storms especially over our SW counties, but 20% should cover this.



Ridge builds in to the north of the area for much of the week, but not overhead like last week. E to ESE deep layer flow on the south side of this feature will support at least a slight chance of thunderstorms each day along the seabreeze with better chances possibly coming on Wednesday and then again toward the end of the week/weekend as weak disturbances/tropical waves pass by to our south briefly enhancing moisture. Without the ridge overhead along the the recent wetting rainfall highs will be in the low to mid 90’s instead of the low 100’s for much of the week.



All in all finally a more typical summer type pattern for the area with near/slightly above normal temperatures and a slight chance of daily afternoon thunderstorms.

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srainhoutx
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The 12Z guidance suggests a rather potent mid/upper low traversing W along the Gulf Coastal States under the Central/East Coast Ridge as we close out the first week of July. The Euro is suggesting a fairly significant increase in moisture with scattered showers/storms developing late Saturday into next Monday if that model is correct.

Edit to add: HPC Medium Range Final Discussion

A TUTT CELL/UPPER LOW FRACTURED OFF THE TAIL OF THE EASTERN TROUGH
IS EXPECTED RETROGRADE UNDER THE BASE OF THE WARM CORE RIDGE AND
SPREAD MODERATE RAINS FROM THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY/SATURDAY WESTWARD
ALONG/INLAND OF THE GULF COAST TOWARDS EASTERN TEXAS BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WHICH WILL ACT TO SUPPRESS HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THEIR
RECENT EXTREME VALUES. THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD BE WET AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION...SPURRING CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES ALONG THE WAY.
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07022012 12Z Euro 12zeuro500mbHeightAnomalyNA168.gif
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weatherguy425
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TTU WRF models the sea-breeze to become active beginning tomorrow afternoon and especially Wednesday afternoon. NAM and some other short term models are a little less aggressive but the set-up doesn't look all that bad for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
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DISCUSSION
ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SEEMED TO SHIFT OVER INTO C TX WHERE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS HAS NOW SET UP. MOISTURE SHOULD DECREASE WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 1. 4 INCHES LATER TONIGHT. WILL KEEP 20 POPS FOR ISO ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON BUT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE AREA WILL STAY DRY TONIGHT. MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S LOOK ON TRACK WITH PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO INCREASE EACH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVERALL THINK MAX TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL REMAIN IN THE MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. PRECIP CHANCES REMAIN A QUESTION FOR EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER HIGH PLAINS OF CO/NM/TX/OK/KS SHOULD EXPAND OVER THE C PLAINS AND MIDWEST BY WED/THUR. RIDGE IS NOT EOXPECTED TO BECOME OVERPOWERING WITH SUBSIDENCE FOR SE TX THROUGH THE WEEK SO COULD SEE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME AFTERNOON STORMS. HIGHER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY COUPLED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDING UNDER THE RIDGE COULD SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. DECIDED TO SPREAD 30 POPS FOR MUCH OF THE SW AREAS. MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK SO WILL MAINTAIN 20 POPS INTO THE WEEKEND. DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO REALLY INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES REACHING 2 - 2. 2 INCHES FROM THE EAST AS POSSIBLY ANOTHER INVERTED TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE AREA. FORECAST WILL KEEP 20 POPS BUT THIS COULD BE ANOTHER DECENT CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. CHANCES LOOK BETTER ON THE COMING SUNDAY ESPECIALLY FOR E TX.
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