July: Hot & Humid To End The Month

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srainhoutx
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Updates from Jeff:

Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to include all SE TX counties now until 700pm this evening.



Widespread clusters of very heavy rainfall (1-2.5 inches per hour) developing over a large part of SE TX. With grounds saturated, significant run-off is being generated. Storms will continue to develop and move very slowly across the area producing excessive rainfall and flooding.



Widespread 1-3 inch rainfall amounts are likely with isolated totals of 4-6 inches. Already this morning parts of Matagorda County have received upwards of 5-6 inches of rainfall. Radar is starting o show development filling in over Wharton, Fort Bend, Austin, Waller, and western Harris Counties.


Overnight rainfall of 3-5 inches on top of heavy rainfall yesterday has led to a significant rise on the Tres Palacios River at Midfield in Matagorda County.



Overnight the river has risen over 10 feet and is nearing flood stage. Excessive rainfall continues to fall over the drainage basin and the river is expected to rise above flood stage this morning.



Current Stage: 22.59 ft

Flood Stage: 24.0 ft

Forecast: river is in a rapid rise and will reach flood stage this morning and continue to rise to near or above 25.0 ft today. At levels above 24 feet, flooding begins at flow spills into the right upstream floodplain.





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Jeff reports .92 inches of rain in the past 15 minutes in NW Harris County @ gage 1190 (Upper Cypress Creek at Mathis Rd).
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HGX issues Flood Advisory for Harris & Montgomery Counties
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First visible shot of the morning reveals just where the boundary and best dynamics are situated across SE TX...
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weatherguy425
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Almost appears to be a couple "meso-lows" out and about enhancing convection. One offshore of Galveston and the other in western Montgomery County.
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HGX issues Flash Flood Warning for Austin, Colorado, Grimes, Harris, Montgomery, Waller, Washington [TX] till 11:00 AM CDT
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Call me a glutton, but I wish the low in W. Montgomery would slide east a little. It's like I-45 has been a wall this morning. It looks like things may try to get going on this side of the tracks - we'll see...
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HCFCD gage 1175: K100 Cypress Creek @ US 290 is showing 2.4 inches of rain in the past 3 hours
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From Nesdis:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/11/12 1309Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1245Z JBN
LOCATION...ALABAMA...MISSISSIPPI...LOUISIANA...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...
ATTN WFOS...BRO...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...ONGOING MOD/HVY RAIN EVENT IN SE TX...DEVELOPING MOD/HVY RAIN
THREAT LA INTO SRN MS
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST GOES IR/VIS IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW A CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION SITUATED OVER SERN TX ATTM. CLOUD
TOPS STILL SHOWING A NICE COOLING/EXPANDING TREND IN IR WHERE MOST ACTIVE
CONVECTION IS ATTM WITH VIS IMAGAERY SHOWING A FEW OVERSHOOTING TOPS AS
WELL. SEVERAL FEATURES INCLUDING AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY/SFC LOW/AND
SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE ACTING AS FOCAL POINTS FOR CONVECTION
TO DEVELOP/MOVE ALONG THIS MORNING MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE
EXACTLY WHERE BEST PRECIP MAY SET UP FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. HOWEVER,
THINK THE BEST CHANCE OF SLOW MOVING CONVECTION AND MOD/HVY RAIN
REMAINS OVER SERN TX AS ENTIRE REGION REMAINS IN AN AREA OF GOOD SFC
CONVERGENCE/DEEP MOISTURE. SATELLITE HYDRO-ESTIMATE PRODUCTS SUGGESTING
THAT 3-4" OF RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS PARTS OF MATAGORDA/JACKSON/WALLER
COUNTIES WITH A MORE WIDESPREAD 1-3" ACROSS MUCH OF SERN TX/SWRN LA THE
PAST 3 HRS. WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS,
COULD SEE AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED 4" AMTS OVER PORTIONS
OF SE TX/SW LA.

.
HEADING FARTHER NE INTO CNTRL LA/SRN MS, VIS IMAGERY SHOWS A BAND OF
CONVECTION TRAILING A REMNANT MCV OVER NRN MS THAT CONNECTS WITH ANOTHER
MCV OVER SWRN LA. THIS BAND IS STARTING TO SHOW SOME ENHANCEMENT IN
IR IMAGERY AND MAY INTENSIFY SOME THE NEXT FEW HRS. SINCE THE LINE IT
ORIENTED WSW TO ENE AND IS MOVING ENE, THINK THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME TRAINING IN THESE AREAS. RAIN RATES NOT THAT HVY RIGHT NOW,
BUT IF INTENSIFYING TRENDS CONTINUE, WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR INCREASING
RAIN RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MOD/HVY RAIN FROM
CNTRL LA TO SRN MS.
.
AN ANNOTATED SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING THE HEAVY PRECIPITATION THREAT
AREA AND AN ESTIMATE GRAPHIC SHOWING RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AVAILABLE
ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1315Z-1615Z...MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FACTOR
IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN OUTLOOK FOR SERN TX AS ONGOING DEEP
CONVECTION SHOULD NOT MOVE MUCH AND SHOULD SEE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DEVELOP THIS MORNING. ONLY THING TO GO WRONG WOULD BE FOR CONVECTION TO
SHIFT OFF THE COAST, BUT DO NOT SEE THAT HAPPENING AT THIS POINT. SO
MOD/HVY RAIN SHOULD STAY FOCUSED OVER SAME AREAS FOR SEVERAL MORE HRS
LEADING TO ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS IN THESE AREAS. A LITTLE BIT MORE
UNCERTAIN HEADING INTO CNTRL LA/SRN MS. BAND OF CUMULUS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONVECTION LOOKS GOOD AND THERE ARE SEVERAL MCVS TO HELP ENHANCE
THE CONVECTION, BUT MAY NEED A FEW MORE HRS OF SUNLIGHT/HEATING TO
DESTABILIZE THINGS ENOUGH TO GET SOME REALLY DEEP CONVECTION GOING AND
CREATE A GREATER FLOOD THREAT.
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jasons2k
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With that swirl in W. Montgomery just spinning, Spring Creek along the county line may see the worst flooding since I moved here. Looks like street flooding is imminent in The Woodlands and Magnolia areas.
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jasons wrote:With that swirl in W. Montgomery just spinning, Spring Creek along the county line may see the worst flooding since I moved here. Looks like street flooding is imminent in The Woodlands and Magnolia areas.

Same thing with Cypress Creek in NW Harris County
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Meso-Low appears to be slowly, VERY slowly trekking towards central Montgomery county. Of note is the outflow boundary racing into southeastern Harris county....will be interesting to see what effect if any it'll have on storms upstream.
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For our neighbors in San Antonio...

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
816 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
BEXAR COUNTY...

* UNTIL 1100 AM CDT.

* AT 810 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETERMINED THAT SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE SAN
ANTONIO METRO AREA.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...SAN
ANTONIO...ALAMO HEIGHTS...CALAVERAS LAKE...CHINA GROVE...
ELMENDORF...HOLLYWOOD PARK...KIRBY...LACKLAND AFB...LEON VALLEY...
LIVE OAK...OLMOS PARK...SEA WORLD...SHAVANO PARK...ST. HEDWIG...
TERRELL HILLS AND WINDCREST.

THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3
INCHES ACROSS GUADALUPE AND COMAL COUNTIES SINCE 6 AM THIS MORNING.
THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 INCHES
OF RAIN ACROSS THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA...INCLUDING THE DOWNTOWN
AREA. RAINFALL FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE QUICK TO RUNOFF AND WILL
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.
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For the time being, rainfall rates appear to be coming down slightly.




Edit: Never mind, it appears to be reorganizing with heaviest rain in western Harris county as well as western Montgomery county. Anyone else notice the convection down near Victoria?

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Last edited by srainhoutx on Wed Jul 11, 2012 8:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: add radar imagery
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Ed Mahmoud wrote:Whatever the name of the creek or bayou is at I-45 and I-10, which flows into Buffalo Bayou, it is out of its concrete banks.
White Oak. And Little White Oak merges with that a couple of miles upstream.
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07112012 1330Z TX VIS latest.jpg
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Update from Jeff:

Widespread moderate to heavy rains continue across SE TX this morning with numerous Flash Flood Warnings in effect.



Coastal rain band has weakened and shifted offshore with a large area of moderate rainfall across Jackson, Wharton, Matagorda, and Brazoria Counties. Meso low feature has developed over Waller/SW Montgomery Counties and this is focusing very heavy rainfall of 2-3 inches over NW and W Harris County into all of Waller and Austin Counties. Waller County S.O. is reporting high water on many roads around Prairie View.



This feature is moving very slowly to the ENE and will continue to support heavy rainfall of 1-2 inches per hour over northern Harris into much of Montgomery County for the next 1-2 hours. Over the coastal counties rainfall rates of .5 of an inch per hour will continue on top of the 4-6 inches that has already fallen overnight leading to continued flooding problems.



Radar shows additional storms starting to develop NW of Victoria and these may impact already hard hit locations along the coast later this morning.



With the trough axis overhead and very tropical moisture in place excessive rainfall and flooding will continue to be a threat given the now saturated grounds.



Tres Palacios River Update (Major Flooding Forecasted):

Current Stage: 27.23 ft

Flood Stage: 24.0 ft

Forecast: River is in a very sharp rise and forecast to reach 29.6 ft later today (29.0ft is major flooding level). At levels above 29.0 ft major low land flooding begins as both approaches to FM 456 are cut off and water is over FM 1468 near Clemville, FM 2431 near Midfield, and FM 2853 near Blessing with several homes in the El Dorado Country, Oak Grove, and Tres Palacios subdivisions flooded. Residents along the river should take the necessary actions to protect their life and property.

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srainhoutx
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The 12Z WRF/NMM suggests heavy rains will continue across S Central/SE TX for the next 12 hours or so. We will see

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Jeff reports: South Mayde Creek at Greenhouse 3.0 feet from bankfull. Creek may reach bankfull later this morning
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
856 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EASTERN GOLIAD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
VICTORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1100 AM CDT

* AT 851 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.
DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE
745 AM FROM SOUTHEAST OF GOLIAD TO NORTH OF VICTORIA. THIS AREA
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING TO OCCUR.
SOME CITIES AND TOWNS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
GOLIAD...VICTORIA...ANDER...COLETO CREEK PARK...DOWNTOWN VICTORIA
AND FANNIN. SOME CREEKS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SPRING CREEK AND GARCITAS CREEK.
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