July: Hot & Humid To End The Month

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Ptarmigan
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Ed Mahmoud wrote:HGX disco- they are considering an FFW, some concern for nocturnal rains West of 45 and South of 10

http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0R/HGX_loop.gif
Interesting they mention nocturnal rains. They can get very heavy. Webberville near Austin got over 10 inches of rain last night.
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jasons2k
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Came home to .08"

Sprinklers running - must water-in my summer lawn treatment that I spread...oh...4 days ago.
biggerbyte
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Nothing here either. Most everything just goes poof as it reaches Porter.
cisa
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I work in Conroe and it absolutely POURED over there, but not much appears to have fallen here at my place either.
No rain, no rainbows.
unome
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check out the experimental thunderstorm forecast 04Z-12Z

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/enhtstm/

(sorry for the lrg pic, have never figured out how to get the resize to work)

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weatherguy425
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A few showers beginning to parallel the coast. Both RAP and HRRR show initiate between 10PM in midnight in our coastal and southwestern Counties.
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Katdaddy
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I get from home from East Texas 30 minutes ago and I see I picked 1.46" at the house today. Finally I get some real rain.
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Rip76
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4" in the Sagemont/Pearland area.
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Ptarmigan
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Code: Select all

000
FXUS64 KHGX 110221
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
921 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012

.UPDATE...
HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AS CONVECTION
HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION. ONLY OTHER CHANGES THIS EVENING
WERE TO BUMP THE MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR SO ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012/

DISCUSSION...
SEE BELOW FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT FOR TERMINALS KIAH AND
SOUTHWARD. PER COORDINATION WITH CWSU HAVE REMOVED SHOWER MENTION
FOR THE MOST OF THE EVENING HOURS. KCLL..KUTS..AND KCXO STILL HAVE
SOME VCTS OR VCSH OCCURRING/DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND WILL CONTINUE
VC MENTION THIS EVENING. DID INTRODUCE SOME MVFR FOG AND CIGS AT
KCLL PER MOS AND PERSISTENCE FROM LAST NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE OTHER SITES FOR PCPN AND CIG/VIS TRENDS. 04

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012/

DISCUSSION...
COMING REALLY CLOSE TO PULLING THE TRIGGER ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR AREAS WEST OF I-45 AND SOUTH I-10. DECIDED TO LET EVENING
SHIFT TAKE A SECOND LOOK AT THINGS AND MONITOR TRENDS. TRAINING
RAINFALL TODAY OVER THIS GENERAL REGION...MOST OF IT LIGHT TO
MODERATE. BUT THERE WERE TIMES WHEN RATES WENT TO 1.5-2"/HR AND
THEY ARE NOW FALLING OVER INCREASINGLY SATURATED GROUNDS.

TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO YDAY EXPECT CONTINUE SHRA/TSTMS INLAND
THIS EVENING INDUCED BY HEATING. AND LIKE LAST NIGHT...SUSPECT
NOT ALL WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING CONSIDERING HIGH
PW`S BETWEEN 2.2-2.4" SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERAL MODELS
SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL REDEVELOPING OUT TOWARD OUR SW
ZONES AND THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY HAVEN`T PUT
A LOT OF STOCK IN MODEL TIMING/QPF AS LATE AS TRACK RECORD OF SUCH
HASN`T BEEN THE BEST. BUT IT`S A BIT CONCERNING WHEN SEVERAL ARE
ON THE SAME PAGE AND SOME WITH HIGH AMOUNTS. IT WOULD BE IN A
FAVORABLE AREA AT NIGHT AS WELL WITH THAT ARE BEING SITUATED IN
THE BASE OF THE TROF AXIS. THIS PART OF SE TX CAN PROBABLY TAKE A
GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN BEFORE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ARISE. PROBLEMS
WOULD BE WITH TRAINING 2-3" AMOUNTS PER HOUR - ESP IF THEY SPREAD
CLOSER TO THE METRO AREA. AGAIN - WILL LET THE EVENING CREW
MONITOR SHORT TERM TRENDS.

SO ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF PRECIP TOMORROW AND A BIT LESS ON THURS.
MOISTURE VALUES PROGGED TO SUBSIDE AND TROF AXIS WEAKEN AND
TEMPORARILY PUSH A BIT SE IN THE DAYS TO COME. HOWEVER...STILL
ANTICIPATE FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE DURING THE AFTN HOURS EACH DAY
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. 47

MARINE...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST TRENDS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL KEEP A LIGHT WIND REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP SCATTERED STORMS IN THE FCST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS/ELEVATED SEAS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  88  74  91  74 /  50  60  40  50  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  87  74  90  74 /  60  70  40  50  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  86  79  88  80 /  60  70  40  50  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...04

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1
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svrwx0503
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Showers and thunderstorms developing pretty much like what was advertised by most of the high resolution models yesterday afternoon and evening. Activity continues to slowly increase in coverage and spread inland out of our coastal counties where rain rates up to 2-3 inches per hour have been noted in some of the cells. A quick radar cross-section through the cells clearly indicates warm-cloud processes which supports very high rain rates with this activity through the morning. In the short term, the heaviest rainfall has fallen across far-eastern Matagorda and southwestern Brazoria counties with showers and storms continuing to develop over those areas. Will have to closely watch how things unfold through the morning as the activity develops/spreads closer to the metro area. Might be quite a messy commute.
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svrwx0503
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It is a rainy morning across southern sections of southeast Texas with a Flood Watch forthcoming for areas along and south of US 59 and west of I-45 until 1pm which includes Houston and Harris county. Large slow moving complex of showers and thunderstorms continues to slowly develop across our southwestern and southern counties with the heaviest rains so far falling across Matagorda and southwestern Brazoria counties. Will be watching the activity across Wharton, Fort Bend and into central and western Harris county along with additional development north of Victoria as it slowly increases and moves towards the metro area. Rain rates have been impressive this morning with several Harris County rain gauges on the west side suggesting upwards of 2 inches per hour.
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srainhoutx
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From Jeff:

Training band of excessive rainfall currently extends from near Victoria to Bay City to offshore of Galveston.



This band is producing rainfall rates of 1-2.5 inches per hour over portions of Matagorda and Jackson counties. This band appears to be in conjunction with weak large scale lift aloft and low level convergence at the surface. Extreme moisture remains over the area helping to foster intense short term rainfall rates. With grounds saturated run-off is increasing and flooding is becoming a threat…a flash flood watch will be issued shortly for areas south of US 59 and west of I-45 where heavy rains fell yesterday.



Radar trends suggest additional storms trying to develop northward of this main band approaching the US 59 corridor. Should more organized storms move into the urban areas some significant street flooding will be possible for the morning rush hour as a HCFCD FWS station record over 1 inch of rainfall in 30 minutes this morning.


Hearing rumbles of thunder now in NW Harris County. Be safe out there this morning. Fingers crossed my plane departs as scheduled for BWI near the noon hour...~sigh~
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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svrwx0503
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FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
441 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

TXZ213-226-227-235>238-111745-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.A.0005.120711T0941Z-120711T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BRAZORIA-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...EDNA...
EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LEAGUE CITY...MISSOURI CITY...
PALACIOS...PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...TOMBALL...WHARTON
441 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...BRAZORIA...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
HARRIS...JACKSON...MATAGORDA AND WHARTON.

* UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON

* HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

* TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS ALREADY FALLEN THIS MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS APPROACHING
6 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
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svrwx0503
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As Jeff mentioned...am concerned that heavier rain may begin to organize closer to the US 59 corridor across portions of the metro area over the next several hours. On another note, there is a ton of lightning associated with the thunderstorms across western Matagorda into southern Jackson county.
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svrwx0503
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SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/11/12 0942Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 0915Z JANKOT
.
LOCATION...LOUISIANA...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...HEAVY RAINS IN SE TX
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...HEAVY RAINS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG TEXAS SE
COAST WITH BEST RATES AT THIS TIME INVOF JACKSON COUNTY WHERE SEVERAL
MERGERS HAVE INCREASED RATES. IR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN CLOUD TOPS COOLING
AND EXPANDING ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WITH ADDITIONAL CELL DEVELOPMENT
UPSTREAM HELPING INCREASE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS. PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE
IN PLACE WITH BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWING PWATS AT OR JUST ABOVE 2.0"
AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH INSTABILITY ALONG S TEXAS COAST
(5000 J/KG CAPES) AND (-7C LIS). MANUAL SATELLITE ESTIMATE IN MERGING
CONVECTION SUGGEST RATES OF 1.5"/30MIN. RATES OF 2-3"/HR IS POSSIBLE
IN DEEPEST CORES/BEST CONVECTION AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ALSO
ANTICIPATE SOME OF DEEPER CONVECTION TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SW LA.

.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0945-1245Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...EXPECT HEAVY RAINS TO CONTINUE IN SE TX WITH BEST RATES
INVOF JACKSON/VICTORIA COUNTY WHERE SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION
ARE CURRENTLY MERGING.
EXPECT RATES IN THE 1-3"/HR RANGE IN DEEPEST
CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINS ALSO MOVING INTO SW LA BUT MAIN FOCUS FOR
THIS OUTLOOK SHOULD BE AROUND JACKSON COUNTY WHERE 3 HR FFG IS UNDER 3.0".
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Katdaddy
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A busy morning ahead:

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
441 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

TXZ213-226-227-235>238-111745-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.A.0005.120711T0941Z-120711T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BRAZORIA-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...EDNA...
EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LEAGUE CITY...MISSOURI CITY...
PALACIOS...PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...TOMBALL...WHARTON
441 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...BRAZORIA...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
HARRIS...JACKSON...MATAGORDA AND WHARTON.

* UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON

* HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

* TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS ALREADY FALLEN THIS MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS APPROACHING
6 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
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Katdaddy
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FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC039-239-321-481-111230-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.W.0035.120711T1024Z-120711T1230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
524 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 730 AM CDT

* AT 517 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
LAKE JACKSON...BAY CITY...FREEPORT...CLUTE...EDNA...PALACIOS...
SWEENY...RICHWOOD...BRAZORIA...WILD PEACH VILLAGE...JONES CREEK...
GANADO...VAN VLECK...OYSTER CREEK...MARKHAM...SURFSIDE BEACH...LA
WARD AND QUINTANA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY.
MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN
AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO
CROSS SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.
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srainhoutx
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From Jeff:

Flash Flood Warning in effect for Jackson, Matagorda, and SW Brazoria counties until.



At 530am radar shows a band of intense rainfall from Victoria to Bay City nearly stationary. Rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour is common under this band with storm totals approaching 4-5 inches over Matagorda County and Jackson County.



Flooding is likely under this band of slow moving intense rainfall.



Band should continue for at least the next 1-2 hours as favorable low level inflow off the Gulf collides with weaker inland winds creating a favored low level convergence zone. An additional 2-4 inches of rainfall on top of what has already fallen is possible in the warning area. Significant run-off and flooding will be generated.



Other storms are developing across the western parts of the area and expect these will congeal into bands over the next few hours. Watching Harris County closely as 1 hour rate of 2.72 was recorded at the HCFCD office.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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jasons2k
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Ha! The sprinklers did the trick! I got .70" overnight from the smallest of red specs on the radar at about 4:30AM. It all came in about 20 minutes. I don't believe I've ever seen it rain so hard with no thunder. So, now I can stop my complaining and be glad this wasn't another bust for me :-)
weatherguy425
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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
646 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...
EXPANDED FF WATCH FURTHER INLAND AND EXTENDED THRU THE DAY.
TRAINING BANDS LOOK TO BE DEVELOPING FURTHER INLAND AND IF THE
NAM12 IS ONTO THINGS (WHICH IT APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED
WELL...WILL REALLY NEED TO WATCH THE HOUSTON METRO AREA AND
SURROUNDING COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS.
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