jasons wrote:With that swirl in W. Montgomery just spinning, Spring Creek along the county line may see the worst flooding since I moved here. Looks like street flooding is imminent in The Woodlands and Magnolia areas.
Same thing with Cypress Creek in NW Harris County
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Meso-Low appears to be slowly, VERY slowly trekking towards central Montgomery county. Of note is the outflow boundary racing into southeastern Harris county....will be interesting to see what effect if any it'll have on storms upstream.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
816 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
BEXAR COUNTY...
* UNTIL 1100 AM CDT.
* AT 810 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETERMINED THAT SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE SAN
ANTONIO METRO AREA.
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...SAN
ANTONIO...ALAMO HEIGHTS...CALAVERAS LAKE...CHINA GROVE...
ELMENDORF...HOLLYWOOD PARK...KIRBY...LACKLAND AFB...LEON VALLEY...
LIVE OAK...OLMOS PARK...SEA WORLD...SHAVANO PARK...ST. HEDWIG...
TERRELL HILLS AND WINDCREST.
THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 3
INCHES ACROSS GUADALUPE AND COMAL COUNTIES SINCE 6 AM THIS MORNING.
THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AS MUCH AS 3 TO 4 INCHES
OF RAIN ACROSS THE SAN ANTONIO METRO AREA...INCLUDING THE DOWNTOWN
AREA. RAINFALL FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE QUICK TO RUNOFF AND WILL
CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.
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For the time being, rainfall rates appear to be coming down slightly.
Edit: Never mind, it appears to be reorganizing with heaviest rain in western Harris county as well as western Montgomery county. Anyone else notice the convection down near Victoria?
Last edited by srainhoutx on Wed Jul 11, 2012 8:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason:add radar imagery
Widespread moderate to heavy rains continue across SE TX this morning with numerous Flash Flood Warnings in effect.
Coastal rain band has weakened and shifted offshore with a large area of moderate rainfall across Jackson, Wharton, Matagorda, and Brazoria Counties. Meso low feature has developed over Waller/SW Montgomery Counties and this is focusing very heavy rainfall of 2-3 inches over NW and W Harris County into all of Waller and Austin Counties. Waller County S.O. is reporting high water on many roads around Prairie View.
This feature is moving very slowly to the ENE and will continue to support heavy rainfall of 1-2 inches per hour over northern Harris into much of Montgomery County for the next 1-2 hours. Over the coastal counties rainfall rates of .5 of an inch per hour will continue on top of the 4-6 inches that has already fallen overnight leading to continued flooding problems.
Radar shows additional storms starting to develop NW of Victoria and these may impact already hard hit locations along the coast later this morning.
With the trough axis overhead and very tropical moisture in place excessive rainfall and flooding will continue to be a threat given the now saturated grounds.
Tres Palacios River Update (Major Flooding Forecasted):
Current Stage: 27.23 ft
Flood Stage: 24.0 ft
Forecast: River is in a very sharp rise and forecast to reach 29.6 ft later today (29.0ft is major flooding level). At levels above 29.0 ft major low land flooding begins as both approaches to FM 456 are cut off and water is over FM 1468 near Clemville, FM 2431 near Midfield, and FM 2853 near Blessing with several homes in the El Dorado Country, Oak Grove, and Tres Palacios subdivisions flooded. Residents along the river should take the necessary actions to protect their life and property.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
856 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CORPUS CHRISTI HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
EASTERN GOLIAD COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
VICTORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
* UNTIL 1100 AM CDT
* AT 851 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.
DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE
745 AM FROM SOUTHEAST OF GOLIAD TO NORTH OF VICTORIA. THIS AREA
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY.
* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING TO OCCUR.
SOME CITIES AND TOWNS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
GOLIAD...VICTORIA...ANDER...COLETO CREEK PARK...DOWNTOWN VICTORIA
AND FANNIN. SOME CREEKS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
SPRING CREEK AND GARCITAS CREEK.
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I'm thinking the WRF could be right. That meso low feature up in Montgomery County is NOT moving anywhere fast anytime soon along with that swatch of convection along the coast.
Western Harris/Montgomery County cluster appears to be weakening (at lest right now) IMO, need to watch the organizing convection to our southwest as it trains and moves ENE.
weatherguy425 wrote:Western Harris/Montgomery County cluster appears to be weakening (at lest right now) IMO, need to watch the organizing convection to our southwest as it trains and moves ENE.
Yep, looks like a spoke a little too soon. Convection is starting to weaken pretty good over Montgomery County.
Too bad for the folks over in the Porter area. That part of the county can't get anything. I don't think I've ever seen such a widespread event consitently miss the same area over and over again.
Too bad for the folks over in the Porter area. That part of the county can't get anything. I don't think I've ever seen such a widespread event consitently miss the same area over and over again.
