July: Hot & Humid To End The Month

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svrwx0503
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Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Post by svrwx0503 » Wed Jul 11, 2012 3:32 am

It is a rainy morning across southern sections of southeast Texas with a Flood Watch forthcoming for areas along and south of US 59 and west of I-45 until 1pm which includes Houston and Harris county. Large slow moving complex of showers and thunderstorms continues to slowly develop across our southwestern and southern counties with the heaviest rains so far falling across Matagorda and southwestern Brazoria counties. Will be watching the activity across Wharton, Fort Bend and into central and western Harris county along with additional development north of Victoria as it slowly increases and moves towards the metro area. Rain rates have been impressive this morning with several Harris County rain gauges on the west side suggesting upwards of 2 inches per hour.

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Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Post by srainhoutx » Wed Jul 11, 2012 3:57 am

From Jeff:

Training band of excessive rainfall currently extends from near Victoria to Bay City to offshore of Galveston.



This band is producing rainfall rates of 1-2.5 inches per hour over portions of Matagorda and Jackson counties. This band appears to be in conjunction with weak large scale lift aloft and low level convergence at the surface. Extreme moisture remains over the area helping to foster intense short term rainfall rates. With grounds saturated run-off is increasing and flooding is becoming a threat…a flash flood watch will be issued shortly for areas south of US 59 and west of I-45 where heavy rains fell yesterday.



Radar trends suggest additional storms trying to develop northward of this main band approaching the US 59 corridor. Should more organized storms move into the urban areas some significant street flooding will be possible for the morning rush hour as a HCFCD FWS station record over 1 inch of rainfall in 30 minutes this morning.


Hearing rumbles of thunder now in NW Harris County. Be safe out there this morning. Fingers crossed my plane departs as scheduled for BWI near the noon hour...~sigh~
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Post by svrwx0503 » Wed Jul 11, 2012 3:58 am

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
441 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

TXZ213-226-227-235>238-111745-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.A.0005.120711T0941Z-120711T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BRAZORIA-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...EDNA...
EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LEAGUE CITY...MISSOURI CITY...
PALACIOS...PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...TOMBALL...WHARTON
441 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...BRAZORIA...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
HARRIS...JACKSON...MATAGORDA AND WHARTON.

* UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON

* HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

* TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS ALREADY FALLEN THIS MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS APPROACHING
6 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

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Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Post by svrwx0503 » Wed Jul 11, 2012 4:03 am

As Jeff mentioned...am concerned that heavier rain may begin to organize closer to the US 59 corridor across portions of the metro area over the next several hours. On another note, there is a ton of lightning associated with the thunderstorms across western Matagorda into southern Jackson county.

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Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Post by svrwx0503 » Wed Jul 11, 2012 4:21 am

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 07/11/12 0942Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 0915Z JANKOT
.
LOCATION...LOUISIANA...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...
ATTN RFCS...LMRFC...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...HEAVY RAINS IN SE TX
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...HEAVY RAINS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG TEXAS SE
COAST WITH BEST RATES AT THIS TIME INVOF JACKSON COUNTY WHERE SEVERAL
MERGERS HAVE INCREASED RATES. IR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN CLOUD TOPS COOLING
AND EXPANDING ALONG IMMEDIATE COASTLINE WITH ADDITIONAL CELL DEVELOPMENT
UPSTREAM HELPING INCREASE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS. PLENTY OF DEEP MOISTURE
IN PLACE WITH BLENDED TPW PRODUCT SHOWING PWATS AT OR JUST ABOVE 2.0"
AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH INSTABILITY ALONG S TEXAS COAST
(5000 J/KG CAPES) AND (-7C LIS). MANUAL SATELLITE ESTIMATE IN MERGING
CONVECTION SUGGEST RATES OF 1.5"/30MIN. RATES OF 2-3"/HR IS POSSIBLE
IN DEEPEST CORES/BEST CONVECTION AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. ALSO
ANTICIPATE SOME OF DEEPER CONVECTION TO WORK ITS WAY INTO SW LA.

.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 0945-1245Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...EXPECT HEAVY RAINS TO CONTINUE IN SE TX WITH BEST RATES
INVOF JACKSON/VICTORIA COUNTY WHERE SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION
ARE CURRENTLY MERGING.
EXPECT RATES IN THE 1-3"/HR RANGE IN DEEPEST
CONVECTION WITH HEAVY RAINS ALSO MOVING INTO SW LA BUT MAIN FOCUS FOR
THIS OUTLOOK SHOULD BE AROUND JACKSON COUNTY WHERE 3 HR FFG IS UNDER 3.0".

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Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Post by Katdaddy » Wed Jul 11, 2012 4:40 am

A busy morning ahead:

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
441 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

TXZ213-226-227-235>238-111745-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.A.0005.120711T0941Z-120711T1800Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BRAZORIA-FORT BEND-GALVESTON-HARRIS-JACKSON-MATAGORDA-WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...EDNA...
EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LEAGUE CITY...MISSOURI CITY...
PALACIOS...PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...RICHMOND...ROSENBERG...
SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...TOMBALL...WHARTON
441 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...BRAZORIA...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...
HARRIS...JACKSON...MATAGORDA AND WHARTON.

* UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON

* HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

* TWO TO THREE INCHES OF RAINFALL HAS ALREADY FALLEN THIS MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS APPROACHING
6 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH
ISOLATED TOTALS OF 4 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

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Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Post by Katdaddy » Wed Jul 11, 2012 4:41 am

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
TXC039-239-321-481-111230-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.W.0035.120711T1024Z-120711T1230Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
524 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN WHARTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
SOUTHWESTERN BRAZORIA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
MATAGORDA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 730 AM CDT

* AT 517 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
LAKE JACKSON...BAY CITY...FREEPORT...CLUTE...EDNA...PALACIOS...
SWEENY...RICHWOOD...BRAZORIA...WILD PEACH VILLAGE...JONES CREEK...
GANADO...VAN VLECK...OYSTER CREEK...MARKHAM...SURFSIDE BEACH...LA
WARD AND QUINTANA.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY.
MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN
AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO
CROSS SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

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Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Post by srainhoutx » Wed Jul 11, 2012 4:46 am

From Jeff:

Flash Flood Warning in effect for Jackson, Matagorda, and SW Brazoria counties until.



At 530am radar shows a band of intense rainfall from Victoria to Bay City nearly stationary. Rainfall rates of 2-3 inches per hour is common under this band with storm totals approaching 4-5 inches over Matagorda County and Jackson County.



Flooding is likely under this band of slow moving intense rainfall.



Band should continue for at least the next 1-2 hours as favorable low level inflow off the Gulf collides with weaker inland winds creating a favored low level convergence zone. An additional 2-4 inches of rainfall on top of what has already fallen is possible in the warning area. Significant run-off and flooding will be generated.



Other storms are developing across the western parts of the area and expect these will congeal into bands over the next few hours. Watching Harris County closely as 1 hour rate of 2.72 was recorded at the HCFCD office.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Post by jasons2k » Wed Jul 11, 2012 5:44 am

Ha! The sprinklers did the trick! I got .70" overnight from the smallest of red specs on the radar at about 4:30AM. It all came in about 20 minutes. I don't believe I've ever seen it rain so hard with no thunder. So, now I can stop my complaining and be glad this wasn't another bust for me :-)

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Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Post by weatherguy425 » Wed Jul 11, 2012 5:54 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
646 AM CDT WED JUL 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...
EXPANDED FF WATCH FURTHER INLAND AND EXTENDED THRU THE DAY.
TRAINING BANDS LOOK TO BE DEVELOPING FURTHER INLAND AND IF THE
NAM12 IS ONTO THINGS (WHICH IT APPEARS TO HAVE INITIALIZED
WELL...WILL REALLY NEED TO WATCH THE HOUSTON METRO AREA AND
SURROUNDING COUNTIES WITHIN THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS.

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