July: Hot & Humid To End The Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 3450
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Post by Ptarmigan » Tue Jul 10, 2012 4:02 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:HGX disco- they are considering an FFW, some concern for nocturnal rains West of 45 and South of 10

http://radar.weather.gov/lite/N0R/HGX_loop.gif
Interesting they mention nocturnal rains. They can get very heavy. Webberville near Austin got over 10 inches of rain last night.

User avatar
jasons2k
Posts: 3166
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:54 pm
Location: Imperial Oaks
Contact:

Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Post by jasons2k » Tue Jul 10, 2012 5:56 pm

Came home to .08"

Sprinklers running - must water-in my summer lawn treatment that I spread...oh...4 days ago.

biggerbyte
Posts: 1089
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:15 am
Location: Porter, Texas. (Montgomery County)
Contact:

Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Post by biggerbyte » Tue Jul 10, 2012 6:04 pm

Nothing here either. Most everything just goes poof as it reaches Porter.

cisa
Posts: 249
Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2010 10:43 pm
Location: Porter, TX
Contact:

Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Post by cisa » Tue Jul 10, 2012 6:30 pm

I work in Conroe and it absolutely POURED over there, but not much appears to have fallen here at my place either.
No rain, no rainbows.

unome
Posts: 3036
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm
Location: Cypress

Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Post by unome » Tue Jul 10, 2012 6:57 pm

check out the experimental thunderstorm forecast 04Z-12Z

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/enhtstm/

(sorry for the lrg pic, have never figured out how to get the resize to work)

Image

weatherguy425
Pro Met
Pro Met
Posts: 590
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:45 pm
Location: Houston, TX > Lubbock, TX > Savannah, GA
Contact:

Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Post by weatherguy425 » Tue Jul 10, 2012 7:35 pm

A few showers beginning to parallel the coast. Both RAP and HRRR show initiate between 10PM in midnight in our coastal and southwestern Counties.

User avatar
Katdaddy
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2279
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
Location: League City, Tx
Contact:

Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Post by Katdaddy » Tue Jul 10, 2012 9:06 pm

I get from home from East Texas 30 minutes ago and I see I picked 1.46" at the house today. Finally I get some real rain.

User avatar
Rip76
Posts: 1433
Joined: Mon Feb 15, 2010 12:38 am
Location: Friendswood
Contact:

Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Post by Rip76 » Tue Jul 10, 2012 9:44 pm

4" in the Sagemont/Pearland area.

User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 3450
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Post by Ptarmigan » Tue Jul 10, 2012 9:53 pm

Code: Select all

000
FXUS64 KHGX 110221
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
921 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012

.UPDATE...
HAVE LOWERED POPS THROUGH THE REST OF THE EVENING AS CONVECTION
HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS THE REGION. ONLY OTHER CHANGES THIS EVENING
WERE TO BUMP THE MIN TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR SO ACROSS THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE REGION. 38

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 651 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012/

DISCUSSION...
SEE BELOW FOR 00Z TAF PACKAGE.

AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT FOR TERMINALS KIAH AND
SOUTHWARD. PER COORDINATION WITH CWSU HAVE REMOVED SHOWER MENTION
FOR THE MOST OF THE EVENING HOURS. KCLL..KUTS..AND KCXO STILL HAVE
SOME VCTS OR VCSH OCCURRING/DEVELOPING UPSTREAM AND WILL CONTINUE
VC MENTION THIS EVENING. DID INTRODUCE SOME MVFR FOG AND CIGS AT
KCLL PER MOS AND PERSISTENCE FROM LAST NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE OTHER SITES FOR PCPN AND CIG/VIS TRENDS. 04

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM CDT TUE JUL 10 2012/

DISCUSSION...
COMING REALLY CLOSE TO PULLING THE TRIGGER ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR AREAS WEST OF I-45 AND SOUTH I-10. DECIDED TO LET EVENING
SHIFT TAKE A SECOND LOOK AT THINGS AND MONITOR TRENDS. TRAINING
RAINFALL TODAY OVER THIS GENERAL REGION...MOST OF IT LIGHT TO
MODERATE. BUT THERE WERE TIMES WHEN RATES WENT TO 1.5-2"/HR AND
THEY ARE NOW FALLING OVER INCREASINGLY SATURATED GROUNDS.

TONIGHT...SIMILAR TO YDAY EXPECT CONTINUE SHRA/TSTMS INLAND
THIS EVENING INDUCED BY HEATING. AND LIKE LAST NIGHT...SUSPECT
NOT ALL WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING CONSIDERING HIGH
PW`S BETWEEN 2.2-2.4" SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERAL MODELS
SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF RAINFALL REDEVELOPING OUT TOWARD OUR SW
ZONES AND THE MATAGORDA BAY AREA OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY HAVEN`T PUT
A LOT OF STOCK IN MODEL TIMING/QPF AS LATE AS TRACK RECORD OF SUCH
HASN`T BEEN THE BEST. BUT IT`S A BIT CONCERNING WHEN SEVERAL ARE
ON THE SAME PAGE AND SOME WITH HIGH AMOUNTS. IT WOULD BE IN A
FAVORABLE AREA AT NIGHT AS WELL WITH THAT ARE BEING SITUATED IN
THE BASE OF THE TROF AXIS. THIS PART OF SE TX CAN PROBABLY TAKE A
GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN BEFORE SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS ARISE. PROBLEMS
WOULD BE WITH TRAINING 2-3" AMOUNTS PER HOUR - ESP IF THEY SPREAD
CLOSER TO THE METRO AREA. AGAIN - WILL LET THE EVENING CREW
MONITOR SHORT TERM TRENDS.

SO ANOTHER GOOD SHOT OF PRECIP TOMORROW AND A BIT LESS ON THURS.
MOISTURE VALUES PROGGED TO SUBSIDE AND TROF AXIS WEAKEN AND
TEMPORARILY PUSH A BIT SE IN THE DAYS TO COME. HOWEVER...STILL
ANTICIPATE FAIRLY DECENT COVERAGE DURING THE AFTN HOURS EACH DAY
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND. 47

MARINE...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE GOING FCST TRENDS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
WILL KEEP A LIGHT WIND REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO KEEP SCATTERED STORMS IN THE FCST THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS/ELEVATED SEAS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND
NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      74  88  74  91  74 /  50  60  40  50  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              74  87  74  90  74 /  60  70  40  50  30
GALVESTON (GLS)            78  86  79  88  80 /  60  70  40  50  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...38
AVIATION/MARINE...04

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

User avatar
svrwx0503
Pro Met
Pro Met
Posts: 230
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:48 pm
Location: West Harris County
Contact:

Re: July: Increasing Heavy Rain Chances & Potential Flood Th

Post by svrwx0503 » Wed Jul 11, 2012 1:33 am

Showers and thunderstorms developing pretty much like what was advertised by most of the high resolution models yesterday afternoon and evening. Activity continues to slowly increase in coverage and spread inland out of our coastal counties where rain rates up to 2-3 inches per hour have been noted in some of the cells. A quick radar cross-section through the cells clearly indicates warm-cloud processes which supports very high rain rates with this activity through the morning. In the short term, the heaviest rainfall has fallen across far-eastern Matagorda and southwestern Brazoria counties with showers and storms continuing to develop over those areas. Will have to closely watch how things unfold through the morning as the activity develops/spreads closer to the metro area. Might be quite a messy commute.

Post Reply