July: Hot & Humid To End The Month

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weatherguy425
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July: Hot & Humid To End The Month

Post by weatherguy425 » Sun Jun 24, 2012 9:52 am

I know all of our eyes are still focused on Debby, but the end of the month is near and for a few runs the GFS has been showing this massive ridge weakening, or a weakness developing over our area with perhaps some tropical moisture being involved.
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Re: July: Will The Ridge Last?

Post by ticka1 » Sun Jun 24, 2012 3:38 pm

Good question but I don't this is the ridge we had last summer! We will have rain again - just not sure when.

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Re: July: Will The Ridge Last?

Post by Ptarmigan » Sun Jun 24, 2012 4:14 pm

Hopefully we'll get rain in July and good ones. 8-)

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Re: July: Will The Ridge Last?

Post by gocuse22 » Sun Jun 24, 2012 7:01 pm

Ridge isnt anything like the 108 degree weather we saw last year.

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Re: July: Will The Ridge Last?

Post by srainhoutx » Mon Jun 25, 2012 4:12 am

The overnight guidance has come into better agreement suggesting a tropical easterly wave will move out of the NW Caribbean into the Gulf this coming weekend. PW's increase to near 2.0 as the heat ridge breaks down and a return flow off the Gulf become established during the last couple of day in June. The best chance for rain appears to be Sunday as a upper level disturbance become a player over S Texas providing better lift and better moisture saturation with no capping. This onshore pattern appears to linger into the 4th of July Holiday period as well. Something to monitor as we head toward the July 4th Holiday.
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Re: July: Will The Ridge Last?

Post by weatherguy425 » Mon Jun 25, 2012 5:08 pm

Models look a little less encouraging for even light rainfall amounts the next 16 days, especially the GFS. This really isn't what I was wanting to hear. With the heat this past week or so you can barely even tell it rained. I'm again seeing numerous pine tress take on that "yellow" color.

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Re: July: Will The Ridge Last?

Post by srainhoutx » Tue Jun 26, 2012 1:37 am

The overnight operational guidance is a bit more hopeful with increasing rain chances as we begin July. Moisture streams in from the NW Caribbean into the Gulf as 500mb upper low/trough rotates beneath the Central/East Coast Ridge as a weakness develops across the Southern half of Texas putting us on the E side of that disturbance. PW's look to increase to near the 2.0 range and bring increasing shower/storm chances for Central/SE Texas as an onshore flow increases. Convective temps look to decrease to the 80's allowing sea breeze showers/storms to stream inland from the Gulf spreading inland Saturday into Sunday. We will see.
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Re: July: Looking Ahead To The 4th Of July Holiday Weekend

Post by srainhoutx » Wed Jun 27, 2012 1:53 pm

The 12Z guidance continues to advertise increasing Gulf moisture as our winds turn E to ESE and PW's increase beginning late Thursday. By Saturday, a 500mb low/upper trough develops across S Texas and moisture streams NW from the Bay of Campeche. A SE wind flow and lower convective temps with no capping should do the trick to spark showers/storms beginning Saturday and increasing Sunday. Coastal Counties along the Middle/Upper Texas Coast could begin to see streamer showers as early as Friday. The upper dynamics with the upper air trough/low to our SW should bring favorable conditions for scattered storms. Also there will likely be a chance of brief tropical funnels with this kind of setup. Dry air should begin to shift back in on Monday as the ridge once again builds across Texas.

HPC:

AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO RETROGRADE UNDER THE
WARM CORE RIDGE IN THE PLAINS...BRINGING SOME RAINS TO SOUTHERN
TEXAS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND MONSOONAL
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SOUTHWEST/NORTHWEST MEXICO NEXT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
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06272012 223Z HPC QPF Forecast 5 Day p120i00.gif
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Re: July: Looking Ahead To The 4th Of July Holiday Weekend

Post by weatherguy425 » Wed Jun 27, 2012 2:42 pm

Good thing as that ECMWF keeps warmest temps over Mississippi valley through next Wednesday or so, and hints at a few disturbances rotating through the area ( especially next Tuesday), so when the high pressure does build back in hopefully it wont be with as much strength as we're dealing with now.

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Re: July: Looking Ahead To The Weekend/4th Of July Holiday

Post by wxman57 » Fri Jun 29, 2012 9:22 am

It's been quite rainy in my neighborhood this year. Already recorded over 5" in June, making the total for 2012 39.88", highest by about 5" when looking at the HCOEM website rain history for the past 180 days. That's twice what I got last year, and I don't think I've ever recorded nearly 40" of rain the first half of any year.

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