March: Warm Days To End The Month With Isolated Showers

[unome]

just had a shower from the tail of that scorpion that's been stinging the eastern half of the US today

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site ... adar=CONUS

[texoz]

This outbreak isn't as big as the two last year, but I think by this time tomorrow the death toll is going to be significant.

[svrwx0503]

It looks like the country will get a break from all of the active weather this weekend through early next week before the next storm system develops out west. 00z GFS continues the trend started by the 18z run this afternoon of developing a cut-off low across the Four-Corners region early Wednesday, then moving it east into west Texas by early Thursday with quite a bit of shower and thunderstorm activity across our part of the state. Even though it is too early to speculate on the details but upper level winds would support some strong to severe thunderstorm development if that scenario plays out. Still plenty of time to watch things though.

[djjordan]

Seeing what has happened so far over the past few days in the midwest, I'm actually afraid of severe weather season this year. A tornado like the one that hit Jarrell Texas comes to mind with this pattern.

[svrwx0503]

Not much change this evening with the 00z GFS in regards to precip timing on Thursday. I am not buying the GFS's solution of hanging up the upper low over northwest Texas through the end of next weekend at this time and will be siding closer to the ECMWF's more progressive solution at this time. It still looks like we should see a decent round of thunderstorms move through the region during the day on Thursday. Locally heavy rain and some isolated severe storms can't be ruled out based on the latest model soundings. Looks like PW's will peak in the 1.6-1.8'' range along with a moderate amount of instability and low level shear.

[srainhoutx]

Not much change this evening with the 00z GFS in regards to precip timing on Thursday. I am not buying the GFS's solution of hanging up the upper low over northwest Texas through the end of next weekend at this time and will be siding closer to the ECMWF's more progressive solution at this time. It still looks like we should see a decent round of thunderstorms move through the region during the day on Thursday. Locally heavy rain and some isolated severe storms can't be ruled out based on the latest model soundings. Looks like PW's will peak in the 1.6-1.8'' range along with a moderate amount of instability and low level shear.

Problems arise with the Euro 00Z solution with the split flow evolution and the cut off regime similar to what we experienced in January/early February. While the operational 00Z GFS appears too progressive, the Euro flipped to a much slower progression of the upper low and would bring heavy rains/storms into the region Friday and keep rain chances going well into the weekend. The ensembles are struggling as well and I suspect the answer lies somewhere in between. The long wave pattern is changing as the split flow pattern transitions from a late winter pattern to that of a Spring like regime. That said I do agree we'll need to monitor the situation during the early week time frame and there are indications that severe weather chances will increase during the late week period. My hunch is Thursday night into Friday will be the time frame to watch closely.

[wxman57]

So far, it's looking like a very sucky period next Fri-Sun with that upper-level low nearby causing lots of cold rain. I don't mind it raining occasionally, but how about Monday-Thursday vs. Fri-Sun?

At least today will be sunny, though way too cold for me. I'm definitely ready for the 80s on a weekend. However, starting next Sunday is daylight savings time, which means I can ride for a couple hours after work M-F.

[Katdaddy]

A potentially active end to week into next weekend as models point to significant heavy rain event.

[Ptarmigan]

A potentially active end to week into next weekend as models point to significant heavy rain event.

Looks to be another interesting weather event. Perhaps severe weather and flooding.

[wxman57]

So far, it's looking like a very sucky period next Fri-Sun with that upper-level low nearby causing lots of cold rain. I don't mind it raining occasionally, but how about Monday-Thursday vs. Fri-Sun?

At least today will be sunny, though way too cold for me. I'm definitely ready for the 80s on a weekend. However, starting next Sunday is daylight savings time, which means I can ride for a couple hours after work M-F.

DST is ok in April, by May the daylength is sufficient it isn't really needed, and it means the 0Z global models for possible 'fun'-derstorm outbreaks, and later, Cat 5s for PBI, come out after reasonable bed times.

I think standard time is the way to go.

We really need DST from Nov-March. I'd rather have 2-3 good hours of sunshine after 5pm than a sunny drive to work at 6:30. Who cares if the sun doesn't rise until 10am?

From looking at the models, they're still clueless about next weekend. Have to wait another 2-3 days before the weekend comes into better focus.

[srainhoutx]

Model mayhem continues regarding the late week time frame from Thursday to Sunday. The over night guidance still offers little confidence in any one solution. What does appear likely is streamer showers developing late Wednesday underneath a stout cap. The GFS shears out the upper low leaving an elongated trough extending from New Mexico/Arizona much like the Canadian offered yesterday. Now the Canadian has flipped into agreement with the Euro suggesting a cut off upper low meandering over New Mexico in a split flow regime delaying a cold front until late Saturday. Such a solution could bring very heavy rainfall totals across areas of Central/NE/E/SE Texas beginning Thursday into Saturday. With such a slow moving scenario, we could see rainfall totals in the 2-4 inch range with isolated 6+ amounts should training storms develop. This remains a low confidence forecast but warrants attention as there is some potential for a significant weather event later this week. The storm complex will move onshore later today into tonight in the Pacific NW and drop SE into the 4 Corners Region by Tuesday afternoon/evening. This significant late Winter Storm will bring heavy mountain snows to the Southern Rockies. We'll see what the 12Z guidance offers, but those with outdoor plans late in the work week into the weekend will need to follow developments closely. Stay tuned!

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
235 AM EST MON MAR 05 2012

VALID 12Z FRI MAR 09 2012 - 12Z MON MAR 12 2012

...FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE S. PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...

AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC DURING THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...FAVORING
LOWER PRESSURES OVER CANADA AND ACCOMPANYING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. ONE AREA OF EXCEPTION WILL
LIKELY BE NEAR OR JUST WEST OF A CLOSED LOW...WHICH THE MODELS
SHOW DRIFTING NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION DAYS
3-5/THU-SAT...BEFORE FINALLY LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO
THE UPPER TROUGH NEARING THE WEST COAST. THE SOLUTION SPREAD
REMAINS QUITE HIGH WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THE CLOSED
LOW...AND THUS CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW...PARTICULARLY BEYOND DAY
4/FRI. THE 00Z GFS WAS DISREGARDED FOR ITS TRACK DUE TO POOR
SUPPORT FROM OTHER GUIDANCE AND A TENDENCY TO BECOME TO QUICK AT
LATER TIME FRAMES. OTHERWISE...THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET/ECMWF ENSEMBLE
MEAN CLUSTER BEST AND THUS WILL FORM THE BASIS OF THE PRELIMINARY
TRACK THROUGH DAY 5 BEFORE MOVING TOWARD THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
THEREAFTER DUE TO LARGER UNCERTAINTY. TWO TO THREE-DAY MODEL QPF
TOTALS JUST AHEAD OF THE CLOSED LOW RANGE FROM 3 TO 7
INCHES...INCLUDING PARTS OF EAST TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...ARKANSAS...AND
LOUISIANA...WHERE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. HEAVY PRECIPITATION MAY
ALSO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY DAY
6-7/SUN-MON AS THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INLAND. THE GFS WAS
DISCOUNTED ACROSS THIS REGION AS WELL DUE TO ITS FAST
SOLUTION...WITH THE ECMWF AND ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN FAVORING A
SLOWER APPROACH.

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Very nice spring weather will be replaced with increasing moisture and rain chances by mid week into the weekend.



Late week storm system may provide an extended period of stormy conditions across the area.



Short Term:

Surface high pressure is moving eastward this morning and this will allow a southerly wind flow to develop today. Skies will remain mostly clear today with temperatures warming into the mid to upper 70’s. Low clouds and moisture begin their return tonight into Tuesday and overnight lows will warm a good 10-20 degrees. Large upper level storms system will drop into the SW US and cut off from the main steering flow. This will help induce surface low pressure formation over the plains and the development of a low level jet which will help pump good low level moisture into the region off the western Gulf of Mexico. Should start to see enough moisture and low level convergence for a few streamer showers moving inland off the Gulf by Wednesday. This is consistent with several of the forecast models showing light QPF by Wednesday afternoon.



Long Term:

Pattern will transition to increasingly wet and stormy from Wednesday onward into next weekend. While the overall pattern favors periods of thunderstorms the details on when/and where the greatest threats will be are being compounded by poor model consistency over the past few days. The main problem appears to be in the handling and eventual movement of the cut off low over the SW US eastward late this week/weekend and how long this feature takes to move out of the SW US and into/across the southern plains. Of course each model is handling this storm system differently and is thus producing differing time periods of when the best chances of rain will be as well as how much. Overall concept of a large upper level storm to our west with a slow moving/stalled frontal boundary in the region and disturbances rotating through the mean SW flow on the eastern side of the upper level storm point to periods of thunderstorms from Thursday into Sunday. I am not overly confident in any of the solutions at this point, but think that rain chances will reach into the 50% range by Thursday and likely hold in that range into Saturday. Some time periods will have much higher chances as disturbances pass overhead…but timing of such disturbances this far out is nearly impossible. Confidence in the late week/weekend forecast is very low.



March 2 Tornado Outbreak:

As if 2011 was not bad enough with respect to tornadoes, 2012 is starting off just as bad if not worse. A total of 276 tornado warnings were issued in a 24 hour period. Destructive tornadoes ripped across the OH Valley and deep south Friday killing 39 persons and injuring over 500. Preliminary numbers from SPC indicate at least 79 tornadoes touched down possibly making this the biggest outbreak so early in the spring season. The outbreak started early in the day across northern Alabama with tornadoes striking areas that were hard hit last April 27 and then transitioned into large supercells over southern IN, TN, and KY. Hardest hit were the towns of Henryville and Marysville, IN and West Liberty KY. The southern IN tornadoes killed 15 and the Henryville Tornado has been rated an EF 4 (166-200mph). In fact two tornadoes struck this area only 10 minutes apart from two separate supercell storms. Debris (mail) was lofted into the storm from the tornado suction and dropped over 100 miles away in West Virginia. The tornado was on the ground for 52 miles and at times was 1 mile wide. Of the 15 deaths in IN, 13 were from this tornado alone.



Another powerful tornado struck the town West Liberty, KY and was rated a EF 3 and resulted in 8 fatalities. This tornado exhibited a very well defined hook echo and debris ball on the radar prior to impacting the town (see image below).



As with the large outbreak last year, the fatalities again appear to be strongly correlated to persons that either did not or were unable to take proper shelter. As with some of the Alabama tornadoes on April 27, some of these tornadoes were not survivable above ground.

[wxman57]

There are still some quite significant differences between the GFS and Euro, so I'm not inclined to believe either just yet. GFS is trending closer to the Euro, though.

[srainhoutx]

There are still some quite significant differences between the GFS and Euro, so I'm not inclined to believe either just yet. GFS is trending closer to the Euro, though.

Yes sir, the GFS made some steps toward the 12Z Euro solution. What is worrisome regarding guidance is the potential for very heavy rainfall amounts and flash flooding. Should guidance continue to advertise some of the QPF totals, Flood Watches may well be needed for portions of the eastern half of Texas later in the week.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
153 PM EST MON MAR 05 2012

VALID 12Z THU MAR 08 2012 - 12Z MON MAR 12 2012

...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
TEXAS/LOUISIANA/ARKANSAS...

TELECONNECTIONS WITH A STRONG POSITIVE ANOMALY NEAR 45N 175W AND A
NEGATIVE ANOMALY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF GREENLAND FAVOR
TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...TROUGHING OFFSHORE THE WEST
COAST...AND RIDGING ACROSS WESTERN CANADA. THE DEGREE OF RIDGING
PRESENT ACROSS WESTERN CANADA SHOULD ALLOW ENERGY FROM THE
WESTERLIES TO UNDERCUT THE RIDGE NEAR THE 40TH PARALLEL...WHICH
SHOULD HELP URGE THE DEEP CYCLONE IN THE SOUTHWEST TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE GUIDANCE SHOWS GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE EXPECTED
FLOW PATTERN...WITH DETAIL ISSUES GENERALLY CONSTRAINED TO THE
EJECTING DEEP CYCLONE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. THE 00Z CANADIAN IS
THE SLOWEST WITH ITS PROGRESSION /ONE OF ITS NORMAL BIASES/ WHILE
THE 00Z GFS AND SOME OF THE 00Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WERE THE
QUICKEST /THEIR NORMAL BIAS/ AND THE 00Z ECMWF WAS THE FARTHEST
NORTH. THERE IS ABOVE AVERAGE SPREAD AMONGST THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONCERNING THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH LOWERS
CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL CHOICE TO ONE WHICH IS BELOW AVERAGE. THE
12Z GUIDANCE ALL SLOWED DOWN/SHIFTED THIS SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH
FROM THEIR PREVIOUS RUNS...WHICH LED TO CHANGES FROM THE 14Z
PACKAGE. THE PRESSURES/WINDS USED A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z
UKMET/00Z ECMWF/06Z GFS SOLUTIONS THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TOWARDS A 06Z GFS-HEAVY MODEL BLEND THEREAFTER WHICH
INCORPORATES A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE 00Z ECMWF. THIS MAINTAINED
REASONABLE CONTINUITY AND MAKES A SMALL ADJUSTMENT TOWARDS THE
SLOWER 12Z GUIDANCE WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS.

HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE EJECTING SOUTHWESTERN SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE FOCUSED NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE SOUTH...WITH AREAL
AVERAGE 3-7 INCH AMOUNTS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS
OF 10 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO EASE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN TEXAS...BUT COULD ALSO LEAD TO FLOODING
IN AREAS WHERE CELLS TRAIN. PER THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
THINKING AND THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN EXPECTED WITH WARM CORE
RIDGING LYING ACROSS THE EAST COAST... PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO
LIE NEAR AND BEHIND THE SHALLOW POLAR AIR MASS /AN ANAFRONT
SITUATION/ WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH
THIS SYSTEM. OTHERWISE...THIS FLOW PATTERN FAVORS PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATE THIS WEEK AND THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM
THIS WEEKEND ONWARD.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Damn, 10 inch totals in the ArkLaTex region! Wish they could move those down here, but I"ll take 2-3 inches.

We are having our first child on Saturday, so it will be a good day to be in the Hospital.

[Kludge]

Damn, 10 inch totals in the ArkLaTex region! Wish they could move those down here, but I"ll take 2-3 inches.

We are having our first child on Saturday, so it will be a good day to be in the Hospital.

Congrats and best wishes, MCW.....!!!!

Fingers crossed that you take your new child to a drought-free home...

[Katdaddy]

Heavy rainfall event still possible over the weekend:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
357 AM CST TUE MAR 6 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE REGION
THIS MORNING ALLOWING FOR ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A BREEZY AFTERNOON IS IN STORE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY AS WINDS ALOFT OF AROUND 25 KNOTS MIX DOWN
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY BUT MOST AREAS STILL LOOK TO BE ON TRACK TO REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH
THE MID 70S. VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY WITH STREAMER SHOWERS DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY AS RICH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE CAPPED AT AROUND 700 MB.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST FROM THURSDAY AND BEYOND REMAINS SOMEWHAT
PROBLEMATIC DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE TRACK OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS WITH
YESTERDAY...THE GFS CONTINUES TO MOVE THIS FEATURE QUICKLY
EASTWARD WHILE THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HOLD THE UPPER LOW BACK TO
THE WEST. WILL CONTINUE TO TREND THE FORECAST TOWARDS THE SLOWER
SOLUTION WHICH SUPPORTS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BEGINNING THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS FEATURE WILL STALL OUT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING FROM NEAR THE
COASTAL BEND REGION NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. GIVEN THIS
SCENARIO WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP CHANCE POPS IN PLACE THROUGH AT
LEAST SUNDAY WHEN THE ECMWF FINALLY PUSHES THE SYSTEM EAST OF THE
AREA. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS FROM LATE THIS
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS IN THE FORECAST. 38

&&

.MARINE...TODAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SEAS WILL RISE AS
SURFACE PRESSURES BEGIN TO FALL OUT WEST IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM. ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED
TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND POSSIBLY
INTO THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON WHAT THE STORM SYSTEM TO OUR WEST
DECIDES TO DO. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE LARGE FORECAST DIFFERENCES
CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME SIGNIFICANT MARINE
FORECAST CHANGES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 42

[srainhoutx]

Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Transition begins today toward a more moist pattern as cloud cover is increasing on southerly winds this morning.



While guidance remains at odds on how to handle the upcoming event for late this week into this weekend, there is slightly better agreement this morning. Surface low pressure developing in the lee of the Rockies today will help instigate increasing southerly winds and a breezy to windy afternoon is in store for the area as south winds gust to 25mph or greater. Low level jet begins to ramp up tonight leading to a rapid increase in low level moisture across the area. Moisture stream off the western Gulf will be capped off between 850 and 700mb, but will deepen enough on Wednesday to likely start to see showers stream inland off the Gulf. Feel the TX Tech 3km WRF model is likely getting to overall pattern correct, but is a little widespread on the amount of rainfall on Wednesday. Think that 30-40% coverage will do with showers increasing toward the afternoon hours.



Large upper level storm system will dig southward down the interior of the Rockies and then stall out over AZ/NM late this week into this weekend. A cold front will drop southward down the plains and into TX Thursday and then greatly slow and possibly stall somewhere over SC to SE TX on Friday. Very favorable inflow of a very moist air mass off the Gulf and Pacific will lead to a saturated air mass by late Thursday. As has been so common for the start of 2012 PW values rise to near +2 SD (1.55 inches) for early March and the threat for repeat cell training along a stalling surface front is really raising the red flags for some sort of heavy rainfall/flash flood event from the period of Friday-early Sunday. Strong surface to 850mb moisture advection off the Gulf will help feed convection. With the upper level low stalled out to our west for 36-48 hours (Thursday-late Saturday) expect disturbances to rotate around the SE side of this feature about every 6-12 hours and this will help to ignite rounds of showers and thunderstorms. With enough breaks between rounds the flooding threat could be minimized however impressive 250mb divergence will position itself near/just WNW of the region and a surface trough is progged by the models to develop from near Matagorda Bay northward to near Dallas. The surface trough will align close to the surface to 850mb inflow off the western Gulf and is located on the favorable portion of the jet aloft. This all points to a sustained heavy rainfall event for multiple periods of time. Still much uncertainty with the timing of the whole event and how quickly the upper low ejects across TX over the weekend (GFS is quick while the ECMWF/CMC hold the thing back until late Saturday). General consensus this morning is to hold the system back to our west and not eject it across until the middle of the weekend following the ECMWF/CMC guidance.



Surface front should stall out Friday across the region with showers/thunderstorms moving SSW to NNE across the area. Front may make it toward the coast by early Saturday with the help of convective outflows along the boundary. Axis of continued heavy rainfall appears to align from roughly the Columbus area to College Station to Dallas. Current thinking is that this is the area where some decent training and bigger rainfall totals could be, but we are still talking over 48 hours out from the event and much can/will change. Will go with widespread rainfall totals from late Wed-early Sunday of 2-3 inches across the entire area with isolated amounts of 4-5 inches. Would not be surprised to see a few 6-8 inch totals given the excessive amounts of moisture that will be in place especially near and just east of where the surface trough/cool front stall out. The overall setup is a fairly common eastern TX heavy rainfall event pattern, but as usual the devil is in the details of where narrow bands of heavy training rainfall will develop and who get clobbered with some really big rainfall amounts. Current thinking is that N/NE TX into NW LA and AR will be the locations under the greatest threat. Or course the water that falls to our north will need to come southward, so there is some concern for some big rises on area rivers with the heavy rainfall axis north/NW of our region.



Severe threat looks overall minimal although a few strong storms will be possible Thursday afternoon near the frontal boundary and then continuing into Thursday night and Friday. Could also see a round of strong storms late Saturday/early Sunday with the ejection of the main upper level.

[srainhoutx]

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CST TUE MAR 06 2012

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL TX AND
SRN OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
ECMWF/NAM/CMC/SREF MEAN ARE REASONABLY CONSISTENT WITH MAINTAINING A
DAMPENING CUTOFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW INVOF AZ/NM THROUGH EARLY FRI. AT
THE SURFACE...MODEL SPREAD IS LARGER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF A COLD
FRONT EXPECTED TO STRETCH FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU TO THE TX PANHANDLE
AT 12Z/THU. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS FRONT SHOULD ACCELERATE
MORE RAPIDLY SWD ACROSS WRN TX DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS
RIDGING BUILDS DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH TIME
OVER THE SWD SPEED OF FRONTAL PASSAGE IN CNTRL/ERN TX.

...SRN PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/THU
ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE INTO PARTS OF SRN KS. CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL
WAA ATOP THE FRONTAL ZONE COMBINED WITH DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
SHOULD RESULT IN AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS
OK INTO WRN AR/N-CNTRL TX BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. VEER-BACK WIND
PROFILES AND BROADENING PRECIP AREA SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD
LARGELY CONSIST OF CLUSTERS. WITH PRESENCE OF LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S
SURFACE DEW POINTS AND A BELT OF 30-40 SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AN
ISOLATED RISK FOR ALL SEVERE TYPES SHOULD EXIST THROUGH THE
DAY/EVENING.

TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME SWWD ALONG THE FRONT IN
PARTS OF CNTRL TX...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EVENING
AS THE BOUNDARY ACCELERATES AND CONVERGENCES INCREASES. ALTHOUGH
SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL VEERING OF THE WIND PROFILE AND STEEPER
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WOULD SUPPORT RELATIVELY GREATER SUPERCELL
POTENTIAL...INITIATING TSTMS WOULD LIKELY BE QUICKLY UNDERCUT BY THE
FRONT. AS SUCH...THE RISK SHOULD PRIMARILY CONSIST OF ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL.

[djmike]

Sure is quiet in here...