March: Warm Days To End The Month With Isolated Showers

[srainhoutx]

From NESDIS:

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 03/29/12 1700Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-817-4209
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1702Z JBN
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
EVENT...SLOWMOVING CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST GOES WV IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UL
DISTURBANCE SITUATED OVER SE TX THAT IS SLOWLY MOVING NEWD ATTM. BLENDED
TPW IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG THE TC COAST WITH PWATS
AVERAGING NEAR 1.5". IR/VIS IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
THAT HAS DEVELOPED THE PAST FEW HRS ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN KRKP AND
KEFD. CLOUD TOPS ARE SHOWING A NICE COOLING/EXPANDING TREND IN IR IMAGERY
WITH A FEW OVERSHOOTING TOPS OCCURRING AS WELL IN VIS IMAGERY. GIVEN
THE OVERSHOOTING TOPS AND CELL MERGERS THAT MAY BE OCCURRING, RAIN
RATES MAY BE IN EXCESS OF 2"/HR IN THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTIOJN. SINCE
THE ENTIRE CLUSTER IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE NE WITH THE MID/UL
DISTURBANCE, COULD SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HVY RAIN THAT COULD RESULT
IN SOME FLOODING ISSUES ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. SATELLITE ESTIMATE
PRODUCTS ARE ALREADY SHOWING 1-1.5" OF RAIN THE PAST 3 HRS ACROSS PARTS
OF MATAGORDA/JACKSON.WHARTON COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL RAIN FALL AMTS OF 1-3"
WILL BE POSSIBLE THE NEXT 2-3 HRS AS THE CONVECTION SLOWLY MOVES NEWD.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1715Z-2015Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.....CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY IN IR IMAGERY AS EVIDENT BY CELL MERGERS AND
COOLING/EXPANDING CLOUD TOPS. AMPLY MOISTURE AND SOME UL SUPPORT FROM
MID/UL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO HELP SUSTAIN
CONVECTION AND PRODUCE MOD/HVY RAIN THE NEXT FEW HRS. THIS MAY RESULT
IN SOME URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING THE NEXT FEW HRS.

[txflagwaver]

Most of it over thr water...Was hoping for a good soaking...Little rotation it looks like

[srainhoutx]

HCFCD rain gauges reporting almost 2 inches of rain within the past hour near IAH.

[Paul]

Is that an eye forming?

[Paul]

I new I smelled almost a hint of tropical this morning.... Going to be a fun ride here in a few weeks....

[srainhoutx]

HGX issues Flood Advisory for Chambers, Harris, Liberty & Montgomery Counties. They are 'hinting' a Flash Flood Warning may be needed as storms redevelop over the same areas.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

IAH getting pounded.

2.7 inches and climbing in the last hour.

[gregco31]

Not a good start for the people out at Redstone and the Shell Houston Open.

[srainhoutx]

Afternoon e-mail from Jeff:

Flash Flood Warning issued for Harris and Montgomery Counties until 600pm



What an afternoon as meso vortex over Brazoria County has spawned a strong bow echo moving through the coastal waters and slow moving excessive rainfall over Harris and Brazoria Counties. 1 hour rainfall rate of 2.40 inches has been recorded near BUSH IAH. Flash Flooding is likely from loop 610-Humble between I-45 and US 59.



Extensive development should progress eastward slowly this afternoon, but upstream satellite and radar is already starting to fore off in the high terrain of NE MX/TX Big Bend region where past several nights storm complexes have developed. Additionally there appears to be some sort of low level boundary left over along the middle TX coast from the southern flank of the bow echo offshore to south of Seadrift and then inland near Rockport where towering cumulus and echoes are attempting to develop. An impressive cell south of Calhoun County over the Gulf has been anchored on this boundary for several hours now and recently the radar is showing development back closer to the coast from Port Alto to Palacios.



Not overly confident in what is going to happen this evening as meso scale influence are in pure control as is clear on the radar at this time. Feel the current activity will slowly shift eastward, but more may develop near the coast.



Overnight another vigorous complex of storms should evolve out of NE MX and head E to ESE across SC/S TX and toward our region by Friday morning. Will have to see how this plays out early Friday, but something similar to today may be possible again on Friday.



Models have been very poor on their handling of these weak features much of which have been convectively induced on the short term (6-12 hours) which is very hard for models to resolve.

[srainhoutx]

TXZ195-196-292030-
BRAZOS-BURLESON-
257 PM CDT THU MAR 29 2012

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

AT 253 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES NORTH OF CALDWELL...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
10 MPH. HAIL UP TO ONE HALF INCH IN DIAMETER HAS BEEN REPORTED WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...CHRIESMAN...SNOOK AND
CALDWELL.

[txflagwaver]

POURING here!

[jasons2k]

I only had .10" here today.

Ed, you may get more tonight. Training cells are setting-up right now in an E-W west band over Harris County. This trend needs to be watched very closely.

[jasons2k]

Well, that didn't last long...

[djjordan]

Check out that storm over mcallen........ Monster hail. Don't have link...: but wow

[Portastorm]

Concern is growing for your neighbors to the west about possible severe weather later today. I certainly hope we don't see anything like the folks in McAllen and Mission saw last night!

-----
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1108 AM CDT FRI MAR 30 2012

.DISCUSSION...
CONCERN OVER RAPID CLEARING...GRAVITY WAVES/OUTFLOW MOVING SOUTH
FROM STORMS IN NORTH TEXAS...AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE BIG BEND
ARE ENOUGH TO UPDATE THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE
CWA...AND MENTION OF SEVERE/HEAVY RAIN OVER THE HILL COUNTRY IN
LINE WITH THE EARLY MORNING SPC OUTLOOK. THE SPC MESOANALYSIS PAGE
PROGS SHOW THE CAP GREATLY DIMINISHING WITH TIME...LEAVING ROUGHLY
2000-3000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND STEEP 500-700 MB LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS
OF 7 C/KM THIS AFTERNOON. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IS 15 M/S OR
LESS...AND STORM MOTION PROJECTED TO BE QUITE SLOW...SO THE MAIN
MODE SHOULD BE STRONG PULSE STORMS...AND HENCE MAIN THREATS OF
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND A SECONDARY THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS. CONDITIONS MAY BE RIGHT FOR ONE OR TWO
SUPERCELLS...BUT EXPECT THE PRIMARY THREAT TO BE GOLFBALL OR
LARGER HAIL WITH THOSE STORMS

[Ptarmigan]

Its like NWS EWX reads my posts

Obviously, he wants to complain about weak shear and pulse severe wasting super juicy middle level instability, but severe weather weeniesm can only be done on local weather forums.

Different topic.

The MCV that moved off Texas is a month or two too early. I can almost see a hint of anticyclonic cirrus outflow on the Northern side of it, and 3 or 4ºC more SST and I think it'd be on the road to sub-tropical glory.

Many tropical cyclones form from MCV like Alicia (1983) and Danny (1997). If that area of thunderstorm persists for another several days, it maybe able to develop. If so, it would be tagged as an Invest, Tropical Depression #1, and even be Alberto.

It would be unusual if it made landfall in April. There have been records of tropical cyclones hitting Texas in April. There was one in 1554 which hit Brownsville.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/txhur.pdf

[Ptarmigan]

Its like NWS EWX reads my posts

Obviously, he wants to complain about weak shear and pulse severe wasting super juicy middle level instability, but severe weather weeniesm can only be done on local weather forums.

Different topic.

The MCV that moved off Texas is a month or two too early. I can almost see a hint of anticyclonic cirrus outflow on the Northern side of it, and 3 or 4ºC more SST and I think it'd be on the road to sub-tropical glory.

Many tropical cyclones form from MCV like Alicia (1983) and Danny (1997). If that area of thunderstorm persists for another several days, it maybe able to develop. If so, it would be tagged as an Invest, Tropical Depression #1, and even be Alberto. It would be unusual if it made landfall in April. There have been records of tropical cyclones hitting Texas in April. There was one in 1554 which hit Brownsville.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/txhur.pdf

Usually not in March, however...

No known records of tropical cyclones hitting Texas in March.

[wxman57]

Pic someone sent us of the hail damage in McAllen yesterday.

More pics here:
http://www.themonitor.com/sections/slid ... d=13318806