March: Warm Days To End The Month With Isolated Showers

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
unome
Posts: 3036
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm
Location: Cypress

Re: March 2012- In Like a Lamb?

Post by unome » Fri Mar 02, 2012 8:50 pm

just had a shower from the tail of that scorpion that's been stinging the eastern half of the US today

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site ... adar=CONUS

texoz
Posts: 291
Joined: Tue Mar 02, 2010 8:01 am
Contact:

Re: March 2012- In Like a Lamb?

Post by texoz » Fri Mar 02, 2012 8:59 pm

This outbreak isn't as big as the two last year, but I think by this time tomorrow the death toll is going to be significant.

User avatar
svrwx0503
Pro Met
Pro Met
Posts: 230
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:48 pm
Location: West Harris County
Contact:

Re: March 2012- In Like a Lamb?

Post by svrwx0503 » Fri Mar 02, 2012 11:22 pm

It looks like the country will get a break from all of the active weather this weekend through early next week before the next storm system develops out west. 00z GFS continues the trend started by the 18z run this afternoon of developing a cut-off low across the Four-Corners region early Wednesday, then moving it east into west Texas by early Thursday with quite a bit of shower and thunderstorm activity across our part of the state. Even though it is too early to speculate on the details but upper level winds would support some strong to severe thunderstorm development if that scenario plays out. Still plenty of time to watch things though.

User avatar
djjordan
Posts: 927
Joined: Fri Feb 05, 2010 7:19 pm
Location: Montgomery, Texas
Contact:

Re: March 2012- In Like a Lamb (here)?

Post by djjordan » Sat Mar 03, 2012 6:16 pm

Seeing what has happened so far over the past few days in the midwest, I'm actually afraid of severe weather season this year. A tornado like the one that hit Jarrell Texas comes to mind with this pattern.
~~~When Thunder Roars Go Indoors~~~
~~~Turn Around Don't Drown~~~
~~~Run From The Water, Hide From The Wind~~~

User avatar
svrwx0503
Pro Met
Pro Met
Posts: 230
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:48 pm
Location: West Harris County
Contact:

Re: March 2012- In Like a Lamb (here)?

Post by svrwx0503 » Sat Mar 03, 2012 11:45 pm

Not much change this evening with the 00z GFS in regards to precip timing on Thursday. I am not buying the GFS's solution of hanging up the upper low over northwest Texas through the end of next weekend at this time and will be siding closer to the ECMWF's more progressive solution at this time. It still looks like we should see a decent round of thunderstorms move through the region during the day on Thursday. Locally heavy rain and some isolated severe storms can't be ruled out based on the latest model soundings. Looks like PW's will peak in the 1.6-1.8'' range along with a moderate amount of instability and low level shear.

User avatar
srainhoutx
Site Admin
Site Admin
Posts: 19252
Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
Contact:

Re: March 2012- In Like a Lamb (here)?

Post by srainhoutx » Sun Mar 04, 2012 4:35 am

svrwx0503 wrote:Not much change this evening with the 00z GFS in regards to precip timing on Thursday. I am not buying the GFS's solution of hanging up the upper low over northwest Texas through the end of next weekend at this time and will be siding closer to the ECMWF's more progressive solution at this time. It still looks like we should see a decent round of thunderstorms move through the region during the day on Thursday. Locally heavy rain and some isolated severe storms can't be ruled out based on the latest model soundings. Looks like PW's will peak in the 1.6-1.8'' range along with a moderate amount of instability and low level shear.
Problems arise with the Euro 00Z solution with the split flow evolution and the cut off regime similar to what we experienced in January/early February. While the operational 00Z GFS appears too progressive, the Euro flipped to a much slower progression of the upper low and would bring heavy rains/storms into the region Friday and keep rain chances going well into the weekend. The ensembles are struggling as well and I suspect the answer lies somewhere in between. The long wave pattern is changing as the split flow pattern transitions from a late winter pattern to that of a Spring like regime. That said I do agree we'll need to monitor the situation during the early week time frame and there are indications that severe weather chances will increase during the late week period. My hunch is Thursday night into Friday will be the time frame to watch closely.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity

User avatar
wxman57
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2621
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 5:34 am
Location: Southwest Houston (Westbury)
Contact:

Re: March 2012- In Like a Lamb (here)?

Post by wxman57 » Sun Mar 04, 2012 8:06 am

So far, it's looking like a very sucky period next Fri-Sun with that upper-level low nearby causing lots of cold rain. I don't mind it raining occasionally, but how about Monday-Thursday vs. Fri-Sun? ;-)

At least today will be sunny, though way too cold for me. I'm definitely ready for the 80s on a weekend. However, starting next Sunday is daylight savings time, which means I can ride for a couple hours after work M-F.

User avatar
Katdaddy
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2279
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 8:18 am
Location: League City, Tx
Contact:

Re: March 2012- In Like a Lamb (here)?

Post by Katdaddy » Sun Mar 04, 2012 4:19 pm

A potentially active end to week into next weekend as models point to significant heavy rain event.

User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 3450
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

Re: March 2012- In Like a Lamb (here)?

Post by Ptarmigan » Sun Mar 04, 2012 7:01 pm

Katdaddy wrote:A potentially active end to week into next weekend as models point to significant heavy rain event.
Looks to be another interesting weather event. Perhaps severe weather and flooding.

User avatar
wxman57
Global Moderator
Global Moderator
Posts: 2621
Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 5:34 am
Location: Southwest Houston (Westbury)
Contact:

Re: March 2012- In Like a Lamb (here)?

Post by wxman57 » Sun Mar 04, 2012 8:16 pm

Ed Mahmoud wrote:
wxman57 wrote:So far, it's looking like a very sucky period next Fri-Sun with that upper-level low nearby causing lots of cold rain. I don't mind it raining occasionally, but how about Monday-Thursday vs. Fri-Sun? ;-)

At least today will be sunny, though way too cold for me. I'm definitely ready for the 80s on a weekend. However, starting next Sunday is daylight savings time, which means I can ride for a couple hours after work M-F.

DST is ok in April, by May the daylength is sufficient it isn't really needed, and it means the 0Z global models for possible 'fun'-derstorm outbreaks, and later, Cat 5s for PBI, come out after reasonable bed times.

I think standard time is the way to go.
We really need DST from Nov-March. I'd rather have 2-3 good hours of sunshine after 5pm than a sunny drive to work at 6:30. Who cares if the sun doesn't rise until 10am? ;-)

From looking at the models, they're still clueless about next weekend. Have to wait another 2-3 days before the weekend comes into better focus.

Post Reply