February: Calm Weather To End The Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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jasons2k
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I had .82 in the bucket...
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srainhoutx
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
523 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 730 PM CST

* AT 522 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
THAT SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WERE
LOCATED IN THE WARNED AREA. RADAR ESTIMATES OF THREE INCHES IN
THE PAST HOUR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

* RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO
OCCUR.


THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...
CEDAR CREEK...DEAN BRANCH...COPPER CREEK...REED CREEK...
DAVIDSON CREEK...BERRY CREEK...PECAN HOLLOW CREEK AND CARRINGTON
CREEK.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
548 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

TXZ195-196-040045-
BRAZOS-BURLESON-
548 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EASTERN BURLESON COUNTY...

AT 543 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN BURLESON COUNTY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO DIME SIZED...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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Folks in Brazos County heads up. Strong storms with radar estimates of 4-5 inch per hour rainfall rates drifting your direction.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
616 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

TXC041-040315-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0011.120204T0016Z-120204T0315Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BRAZOS TX-
616 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
CENTRAL BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 915 PM CST

* AT 615 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
NEAR BRYAN AND COLLEGE STATION.

FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS HEAVY RAINS
CONTINUE OVER THE ADVISORY AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLOODING OF LAND
ADJACENT TO SMALL CREEKS AND BAYOUS. ADDITIONALLY...FRONTAGE ROADS...
HIGHWAY UNDERPASSES...FARM-TO-MARKET AND OTHER SECONDARY ROADS MAY
FLOOD.

AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED IN THE
ADVISORY AREA.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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svrwx0503
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GRK radar indicating a nice hook echo and rotational couplet passing right over or just west of Snook.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

636 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

CENTRAL BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

EASTERN BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 700 PM CST

* AT 633 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO

WAS LOCATED NEAR SNOOK... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

WELLBORN AND COLLEGE STATION.

PLEASE REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE COUNTY SHERIFF...LOCAL POLICE...

OR DEPARTMENT OF PUBLIC SAFETY AND ASK THEM TO RELAY YOUR REPORT TO

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
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svrwx0503
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Most impressive velocity signature of the day with some strong rotation not very far above the ground. It looks like it might have just missed Snook to the northwest. I would bet that there is at least a funnel cloud with this storm.
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svrwx0503
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Getting reports of a possible tornado on the ground near Snook. It looks to be located 5 miles southwest of KCLL moving northeast around 10-15mph. If it remains on the ground it will likely come very close to the airport and Texas A&M. Hail core currently approaching the west and southwest sides of College Station at this time.
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svrwx0503
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Circulation looks to be weakening some as it has broadened out, still very heavy rain, hail and strong winds along with additional tornadoes possible in the College Station area over the next hour. KCLL just reported 1.24'' of rain in the last 50min!
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weatherag
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Looked quite impressive as it passed directly over Snook.
'There's a spirit can ne'er be told...'
texoz
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I hope what I see on radar (at 7:15pm) isn't the tornado reforming, but it looked like rain wrapping from NE to SW in a clockwork fashion around area where tornado was located.
Andrew
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Came back to Houston this weekend. But radar estimates/ reports from people at College Station were reporting pea- quarter size hail and rain totals around 3-4 inches! Pretty impressive to say the least.
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jgreak
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3.5 inches in the bucket when i woke up this morning. Didn't even hear it rain overnight - woke up to a hole in my ceiling and water on the floor. Tarp over the roof currently :cry:
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Damage reported... Fed ex bldg in CS
Team #NeverSummer
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srainhoutx
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Morning e-mail from Jeff:

Busy night across the area with slow moving thunderstorms producing another bout of excessive rainfall.

Since 400pm yesterday rainfall of 6-11 inches has fallen over Brazos and Burleson counties resulting in significant flash flooding. College Station recorded 4.11 inches of rainfall prior to midnight breaking a daily rainfall record for 2-3-2012. Widespread flooding has inundated much of Burleson County with nearly all roads across the county closed and impassable. In College Station and Bryan several roads are closed with creeks running well over their banks.

Cold front has caught up with the slow moving line of thunderstorms helping to increase the SE motion this morning. While hourly rainfall rates remain in the 1-2 inch range under the strongest cells, the training of this line is lessening. Scattered flooding problems will likely continue along this line especially as it moves into the more populated urban areas over the next hour leading to some street flooding.

Hydro:
Rainfall across the middle Brazos basin overnight will produce a major rise on the river from Bryan downstream this weekend. Since midnight the river at Bryan has risen 10 feet (5 ft in 2 hours) and is rising very quickly as extensive rainfall run-off is reaching the main channel. A flood wave will likely be generated on the main channel near Bryan and then begin to translate downstream to Hempstead , Richmond, and Rosharon this week.

Rainfall from yesterday has produced rises on the E Fork of the San Jacinto River, and the lower Trinity River, as well as Peach and Caney Creeks in Montgomery County and Luce Bayou in Liberty County.

Additional rainfall this morning and again on Sunday will delay flood recessions on these watersheds and may result in higher rises. Flood Warnings may be required today for some of the areas downstream of the excessive rainfall regions.

Radar:

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srainhoutx
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Flood Advisory Isssued for Brazos, Burleson, Grimes, Houston, Liberty, Madison, Montgomery, Polk, San Jacinto, Trinity, Walker, & Washington Counties until 9:00AM
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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From Nesdis...

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 02/04/12 1053Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-763-8678
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1032Z JANKOT
.
LOCATION...LOUISIANA...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...SHV...HGX...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...HEAVY RAIN BEGINING TO NUDGE EAST
.
SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...IR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN DEEP CONVECTION
THAT HAD BEEN TRAINING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT NOW TAKING ON A NE TO SW
AXIS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HELPS PUSH CONVECTION EASTWARD. ORIENTATION OF
CONVECTION IS NOW MORE LINEAR BUT NONETHNELESS STILL COLD TOP IN NATURE
WITH TOPS AS COOL AS -74C. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PLACES FRONTAL BOUNDARY
JUST EAST OF AREAS THAT SAW THE 4-8"+ AMOUNTS WHICH IS A GOOD SIGN THAT
FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL WANE NEXT FEW HOURS. SFC OBS HAVE SHOWN STILL
IMPRESSIVE 1-1.5"/HR RATES AND EXPECT SIMILAR RATES AS COUNDARY CONTINUES
TO SLIP SE. AUTOMATED SATELLITE ESTIMATES DID SHOW 2-4" 3 HOUR AMOUNTS
ALONG A AXIS FROM LEE COUNTY ENE TO RUSK COUNTY BUT DO NOT EXPECT SUCH
HIGH AMOUNTS THIS OUTLOOK AS TRAINING IS NO LONGER EVIDENT.
.
A SATELLITE GRAPHIC SHOWING 3 HR AUTOMATED ESTIMATES SHOULD BE AVAILABLE
ON THE INTERNET ADDRESS LISTED BELOW IN APPROXIMATELY 10-15 MINUTES.
.
SHORT TERM OUTLOOK VALID 1100-1400Z...MEDIUM CONFIDENCE FACTOR IN SHORT
TERM OUTLOOK...ANTICIPATE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO SLIP SE AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHIFTS EAST WITH CONVECTION PRODUCING .5-1.5"/HR IN DEEPEST
CORES. FLASH FLOOD THREAT SHOULD BE REDUCED AS 3 HR FFG IS MUCH HIGHER
OVER THESE MORE EASTERN SPOTS.
Attachments
02042012 NESDIS 201202041053iffa.gif
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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niner21
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Don't mean to sound like a broken record (records were these black discs that played music lol) but how are we looking for tomorrow evening? Did the "front" arrive any earlier or does it look to stall out and linger with moisture?

I'm hoping it fast forwards and gets the heck out of dodge/ montgomery.
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srainhoutx
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niner21 wrote:Don't mean to sound like a broken record (records were these black discs that played music lol) but how are we looking for tomorrow evening? Did the "front" arrive any earlier or does it look to stall out and linger with moisture?

I'm hoping it fast forwards and gets the heck out of dodge/ montgomery.
Unfortunately as long as SW flow aloft remains over the region, there is little change in the thinking regarding tomorrow on into next week. We are stuck in a damp pattern that doesn't appear to be changing anytime too soon. At least we'll have 'cooler temps'. I feel your pain, niner21. We need to pour a foundation and everyday it rains, the further behind schedule we get... ;)
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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