February: Calm Weather To End The Month

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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wxman57
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Note that the coldest temperature (here in Houston) forecast by that 12Z Euro is only 40 degrees on Saturday the 11th. The northeast gets all the real cold.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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There's some good agreement between the models that places like Atlanta, Birmingham, Knoxville and Raleigh/Durham could see some impressive cold.
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wxman57
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Euro is coldest. It has low 20s down to Atlanta late next week and a freeze into northern FL.
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srainhoutx
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Meanwhile I'm hearing rumbles of thunder off in the distance in my neck of the woods...

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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Belmer
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote:There's some good agreement between the models that places like Atlanta, Birmingham, Knoxville and Raleigh/Durham could see some impressive cold.

Exactly! Just as I mentioned a few days ago when I made a post a couple pages back, mentioning that there is no bitter cold air in Alaska anymore. 'Nor is there being any forecasted for the next several days. Any cold air that builds up to the north of us in Canada, will be in Central or Eastern Canada which will then drop the cold air all to the east of us. I've seen this happen way too many times in previous winters. Yes, we might be chilly, but nothing that should make us jump for joy, bitter cold weather.
My guess is if this does verify, New Orleans will at least be 5-10 degrees colder than us for highs/lows. Farther east you are, the colder it will be.
For us to get a feel of that really Arctic cold air, would be for the cold in Canada to dive straight southward, not SE/ESE.
Again, that is if the 12z Euro verifies...

For us to really get some bone chilly temperatures down here, is for that cold to build in Alaska and Western parts of Canada again, and then slide its way down the plains to the Gulf Coast. Just no signs of anything like that happening in the models.
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jasons2k
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sleetstorm wrote:Southeast Texas did back in the 80's, jason & we are still alive and well as well as the plants that live in this region of the country. I myself could go for several nights in the twenties or even the teens.
Not exactly - it was horrendous for palm growers as far south as the RGV. Houston, too took a severe beating. That's why you don't see any Washingtonias here (fan palms) or queen palms over about 40-50ft. They've all been planted since then.
Quote: This freeze may forever be known as the freeze that killed the palm trees in the Valley. Anyone who lived in the Valley before 1983 remembers well the thousands of tall slender Washingtonia robusta lining the local roads for mile after mile. The dead stumps were a sad sight on the Valley skyline for several years afterwards -- some still remain to this day. Citrus also received a good beating, the worst since 1951. The Valley got such a cleaning from 1983 it would almost make the worst freeze of the century seem anticlimactic.
http://www.raingardens.com/psst/articles/artic03.htm

A similar freeze today would do the same. The last two years, if you remember, there are a lot of Mexican fans that got bronzed but made it. A lot of queens & pygmies didn't. Sprinkler valves busted all over town. And these were nothing like the big kahuna freezes of the past...just be careful what you wish for.
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Regarding the 12z Euro ... instead of taking the model verbatim that far out, I think the point is that it is showing a sharp western ridge/eastern trough pattern. If we see that as a consistent in future runs, then folks can start looking more closely at the actual forecasted numbers.

A very wise private-sector meteorologist, who shall go unnamed but who is known to enjoy warm weather and cycling, once told me to pay attention to 500mb patterns and source regions when considering possible Arctic outbreaks into Texas.

@Belmer -- you might want to double check your Alaska temps. The maps I see show more than half the state being in below to very below normal.
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Rain and thunder in downtown Houston. Radar has some heavy thunderstorms approaching downtown.
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well the models are showing the ridge busting up the Western side of the Rockies... I'd expect we see some cold in February if this remains true.
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Belmer
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Portastorm wrote:Regarding the 12z Euro ... instead of taking the model verbatim that far out, I think the point is that it is showing a sharp western ridge/eastern trough pattern. If we see that as a consistent in future runs, then folks can start looking more closely at the actual forecasted numbers.

A very wise private-sector meteorologist, who shall go unnamed but who is known to enjoy warm weather and cycling, once told me to pay attention to 500mb patterns and source regions when considering possible Arctic outbreaks into Texas.

@Belmer -- you might want to double check your Alaska temps. The maps I see show more than half the state being in below to very below normal.

Hello Portastorm,

Yes, as of RIGHT now they are below normal. However, I'm talking about the temps they have experienced the past month are well warmer. Like I said before, Alaska has been in highs of -20s for the good part of January. The 10 day forecast has them below zero for the high today. (-8 degrees) and then warming after that.
Breaking it down for Fairbanks, AK
Saturday- High: 4 Low: -2
Sunday- High: 14 Low: 3
Monday- High: 22 Low: 9
Tuesday- High: 23 Low: 10
Wednesday- High: 12 Low: 7
Thursday- High: 10 Low: 0
Friday- High: 9 Low: 0
Saturday- High: 7 Low: -6
Sunday- High: 14 Low: 0


So yes, they are below normal, and still considered very cold temperatures. However, ask some of the Alaskan folks on Monday or Tuesday how they're liking the weather. I guarantee you they'll enjoy it than they did last week when temps ranged from -20 to -30 below zero. It would be different so to speak if we had a great deal of snow pack across the plains right now. Though, with these temps in Alaska a lot warmer, and little snow pack across the plains, a huge surge of cold air making it this far south just isn't foreseeable.
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srainhoutx
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Model mayhem and a noisy Pacific pattern with an active MJO as well as downstream ramifications keep the Winter RECON Group active in the coming days...

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EST FRI 03 FEBRUARY 2012
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z FEBRUARY 2012
WSPOD NUMBER.....11-065

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. P45/ DROP 7 (34.8N 136.8w)/ 05/0000Z
B. AFXXX 14WSC TRACK45
C. 04/1800Z
D. 15 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 05/0600Z

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
A. P56/ DROP 9 (44.3n 151.0W/ 05/1200Z
B. NOAA9 15WSC TRACK56
C. 05/0730Z
D. 16 DROPS ON TRACK
E. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT/ 05/1800Z

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: WC-130 MISSION
A. P37/ DROP 9/ 06/0000Z
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Wave one passed & just left downtown. It was nice ot hear some thunder and see the downpour outside. It didn't last too long, but just enough to wreak some sort of havoc and I hear a lot of sirens going off. Looks like some street lights are out too. It still baffles me how an a little thunderstorm causes so much chaos in Houston, TX of all places. It's not like Lubbock where 1/2" of rain would shut the city down because they don't have underground storm drains...or shouldn't be anyway.

Awaiting wave two. Just in time to make for a joyous commute home. I'll take it though :-)
Last edited by jasons2k on Fri Feb 03, 2012 3:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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This is not always the case.fairbanks will be warming up due to the west coast ridging.in typical mcfarland signatures its not uncommon for fairbanks to be warmer than places such as dfw.alaska getting warmer depending on where the ridge sets up could mean mild or cold down here.Yellowknife for instance acccording to accuweather which is in the northwesern territories will get up to 25 tommorow, but by next wed they will be back to -30at night.It just depends where the ridge sets up.
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Yep I heard the same sirens jasons. Also notice a low and heavy cloud base off to the NW of downtown......looks very tropical.
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Latest AFD from HGX:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
314 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

.DISCUSSION...
SCT CONVECTION FIRING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA THIS
AFTN AS THE DISTURBANCE MOVES NEWD OVER THE AREA. TSRAS MOVING AT
A FAIRLY STEADY CLIP AND OBS NOT INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF A SFC
BOUNDARY IN THE FA. SO NOT EXPECTING ANY TRAINING/FLOODING ISSUES
ATTM. HOWEVER THE MAJOR ISSUE FOR THE SHORT TERM REMAINS THE FCST
OF STRONG/POSSIBLY SVR STORMS OVERNIGHT/TOMORROW WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE COLD FRONT. SE TX LOOKS TO BE NEAR THE "STARTING POINT" OF
THE BETTER/STRONGER JET DYNAMICS WHEN TIMED WITH FROPA. WHILE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE APLENTY...LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED
WITH THE PROGS OF A FAST MOVING FRONT SHOULD THEN KEEP A MAJORITY
OF THE STORMS ON THE SIDE OF STRONG (VS. SEVERE) AS WELL AS BRIEF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS (VS. TRAINING HEAVY RAINS). AN UPDATED HAZARD-
OUS WX OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTN...ACCOUNTING FOR THIS
LINE OF THINKING.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE REST OF THE WEEKEND...MODELS KEEP THE TRENDS
ON THE WET/ACTIVE SIDE. AS PER THE GFS (IN PARTICULAR)...A RATHER
WELL-DEFINED SHORT-WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS FCSTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUN NIGHT/EARLY MON. ANY STORMS THAT FORM
SHOULD BE ELEVATED AT THAT TIME. AFTER A SHORT BREAK ON MON THERE
ARE HINTS OF YET ANOTHER S/WV ON TUES AS THE PERSISTENT SWLY FLOW
ALOFT DRAGS THESE SYSTEMS ACROSS. MOST NOTABLY...LONG-RANGE PROGS
NOT REALLY OFFERING UP A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO THIS COOL/WET PAT-
TERN FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE DEEP SWLY UPPER FLOW REMAINS
IN PLACE AS WELL AS THE OFFSHORE SFC FLOW.
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How about a happy medium Houston???? From severe drought to constant rain? WTF???

It's a soggy mess up here in Montgomery. My 2 job sites are a wreck. Having to hold off on landscaping for about 2.5 weeks now. It will probably take 3-4 days to dry out if conditions don't go back to 20% humidity and some sun.

My yard is a swamp and I'm sure there's no more room for the constant soaking. Seems like more and more of it just runs off. There's no more 20' deep cracks in the earth anymore. We're good, seriously, for about another 8-9 days. Someone turn off the damn sprinkler!!!!

I've got 50 adults and 30 kids over this weekend and we entertain OUTSIDE so it needs to do it's "thang" and GTFO!!!

I'll have mud and crud caked all over my floors if we don't get a drying trend.

Oh, and where did the dang sun go that was out less than an hour ago?
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wxman57
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Heavy rain looks likely from near sunrise to around noon tomorrow. Probably a break in the rain from early Saturday afternoon until mid to late Sunday, if the latest GFS is anywhere close to being correct. Might be able to at least get in a Sunday ride.
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
435 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN GRIMES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN WALLER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 500 PM CST

* AT 428 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO
WAS LOCATED 11 MILES SOUTH OF WASHINGTON... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10
MPH. A FUNNEL CLOUD WAS SIGHTED WITH THIS STORM.

* THE TORNADO WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER RURAL PORTIONS OF THE WARNED
COUNTIES..
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
442 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN BRAZOS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...
NORTHERN BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 530 PM CST

* AT 438 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER
BURLESON COUNTY...OR 6 MILES EAST OF CALDWELL...AND MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER RURAL PORTIONS OF
THE WARNED COUNTIES.

Image
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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srainhoutx
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SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
501 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

TXC185-473-477-032311-
/O.EXP.KHGX.TO.W.0021.000000T0000Z-120203T2300Z/
GRIMES TX-WALLER TX-WASHINGTON TX-
501 PM CST FRI FEB 3 2012

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR WASHINGTON...WALLER AND GRIMES COUNTIES
HAS EXPIRED...

THE STORM THAT PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED AND A FUNNEL CLOUD
IS NO LONGER VISIBLE WITH THE STORM ACCORDING TO LAW ENFORCEMENT.
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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