Paul wrote:skeeters dont fly under 50F....or so I have been told. Someone needs to "google".....
Friday looks to have some potential. With the low sun angle I am having a hard time drying out the last few days.
Mosquitoes fly slower when it is colder from what I have seen. Also they stop biting at 50°F.
Mosquitoes are cold-blooded creatures and do not generally bite in temperatures below 50F. In Connecticut, some adult mosquitoes become inactive with the onset of cold weather and enter into hibernation before the first frost. Other mosquitoes die in the fall but have winter-hardy eggs, which hibernate as embryos. http://www.ct.gov/mosquito/cwp/view.asp?a=3486&q=415106
They are cold blooded animals so cold weather is not good for them. That is one reason why you see less mosquitoes in higher elevations, like in tropical areas. Mosquitoes are seen as annoying, but they can be dangerous. They carry many diseases ranging from malaria (biggest killer in humans), yellow fever, dengue, West Nile, St. Louis Encephalitis, Western equine encephalitis (WEE), and Eastern equine encephalitis (EEE). EEE has a high mortality rate of 35%. However, most people who are infected with EEE are symptomless and mostly effects the elderly and people with weakened immune system. Yellow fever is a hemorrhagic fever, like Ebola. It causes jaundice, hence its name. It has a mortality rate of 10%, but there is an effective vaccine for it. Hemorrhagic fever are usually severe and gruesome. Ebola is one of the deadliest diseases.
wxman666 wrote:Any further info on the severe wx dynamics for Friday?
My main attention this morning has been with assessing the thunderstorm potential for this afternoon as the 12z progs and high resolution models have been suggesting some decent instability around the region. Currently watching strong thunderstorms developing along the coast and right over Galveston. Could be some small hail and 30-40mph winds with some of that activity over the next few hours. Latest high resolution visible sat imagery showing a rather active cu field developing across the region so I would think it is only a matter of time before we start to see some isolated activity develop closer to the metro area. The thunderstorms along the coast look to be developing along a left over boundary and a differential heating zone due to the sea fog right along coast. I will be taking a closer look at Friday's setup shortly but my initial thoughts are that much of the severe weather will remain north of southeast Texas with mainly a rain/isolated strong storm impacting the region. It will not be anything like last week as the best dynamics will remain well north of us across the central plains.
No real changes to my previous thinking after examining the latest model data. The atmosphere will become moderately unstable across southeast Texas during the day on Friday; however all of the best lift will be off to the northwest of the region which is where the greatest risk for severe weather will be. Moisture levels will be on the increase ahead of the front with PW's peaking out around 1.5'' Saturday morning pointing towards more of a locally heavy rain threat verses severe weather. It doesn't look like we will have much time to dry out behind the front as another disturbance gives us another chance of rain Sunday into early Monday. How much rain we see remains in question as the euro continues to bring us the most rain, although the 12z GFS came in more wet than previous runs.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0086
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 PM CST WED FEB 01 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN TX AND SWRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 011936Z - 012100Z
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SERN TX INTO SWRN LA
THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS BREAKS IN CLOUDS HAVE ALLOWED SURFACE
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR
70...SBCAPE VALUES RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE INDICATED A LARGE...AGITATED CU FIELD ACROSS SERN TX INTO
SWRN LA WITH A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR GLS TO ACP. NORTH OF
THIS LINE OF STORMS...SATELLITE AND RADAR INDICATED OTHER ACTIVITY
TRYING TO DEVELOP IN THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. GIVEN LACKLUSTER MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES /NEAR 6 C/KM PER LATEST MESOANALYSIS/ AND THAT THE
STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...UPDRAFT
STRENGTH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LARGE HAIL
GROWTH AND/OR STRONG WINDS. THEREFORE...A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..LEITMAN.. 02/01/2012
ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...
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Much of the area is socked in again this morning…although the Houston metro areas and Galveston Bay region are surprisingly fog free at the moment…otherwise visibilities range from ¼ to ¾ of a mile across much of the rest of the region. Sea fog along the coast appears limited to Matagorda Bay where the low level boundary yesterday along US 59 has stalled this morning with sea fog widespread south of this feature.
Showers have already developed this morning over Victoria, Wharton, and Calhoun counties along the stalled low level boundary. Meso scale models show this feature lifting northward today in response to pressures lowering over west TX. Fog and low clouds should lift/burn off by late morning with heating allowing temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 70’s over dewpoints in the upper 60’s. This will support a moderately unstable air mass by early afternoon. Weak disturbance of upper level energy in the upper level flow combined with the surface heating and the low level boundary moving northward will support at least at chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Best chances appear to be west of I-45 and along and south of US 59. Activity yesterday was much more widespread than models showed, and given a similar setup today, we may see better coverage than expected. Other issue will continue to be very dense sea fog over the bays and coastal waters as high dewpoint air mass continues to slide over cold shelf waters. As the boundary near the coast lifts northward, will likely see the sea fog develop/move back across the Galveston Bay/Bolivar areas by mid morning. Pressure gradient and winds will be on the increase by later today and tonight and this may help disperse some of the sea fog bank, but I have seen sea fog hang tough even with strong winds.
Friday-Saturday midday:
Upper level storm system currently over the SW US will eject into the plains forcing a cold front southward through TX and off the coast Saturday. Air mass ahead of this front will be moist and unstable by Friday afternoon with lift increasing, expect to see scattered showers and thunderstorms developing in the heat of the afternoon. More organized thunderstorms (some strong) will move across the region from NW to SE Friday night and Saturday morning with the cold front. Not overly impressed with the dynamics nor the instability with this event, so while thunderstorms are possible if not likely, severe weather is not expected. SPC Day 2 slight risk outlook (see below) does near our northern row of counties north of Huntsville for Friday afternoon and night, but general reasoning is that any severe threat will be isolated. Rainfall amounts of .5 to 1.0 inch will be possible across much of the region, but with PWS pushing toward 1.5 inches cannot rule out a few isolated higher totals nearing 3-4 inches.
Saturday midday-Monday:
Cold front will usher in a cold and shallow air mass with temperatures falling from the 60’s into the low 50’s during the day on Saturday. Gusty north winds of 15-20mph will make it feel even colder. Shallow front stalls across the NW Gulf in response to position of the upper level jet and another short wave digging into the SW US. Incoming forcing with this feature will help develop a coastal low on the front over the NW Gulf Saturday night/Sunday. Moisture will be forced up and over the surface cold dome resulting in the development of widespread rains from south to north late Saturday night through much of the day on Sunday. Feel guidance high temperatures in the upper 50’s on Sunday is too warm given the expected extensive cloud cover and developing rainfall…would expect some areas to hold steady in the 40’s for much of the day with highs maybe around 50-53 instead of the 55-60 being offered by the models. Best rain chances along with some isolated thunderstorms will be along and south of US 59 where best moisture and lift will be found. Additional rainfall amounts of .5 to 1.5 inches will be possible mainly near the coast on Sunday.
Monday-Wednesday:
Noisy and active sub-tropical flow will remain in place over the region with a frontal boundary stalled over the Gulf of Mexico keeping the area cool into next week (at least compared to what we have become accustom to of late). GFS is showing another disturbance helping to force another coastal low event by the middle of next week with rain chances returning. This event looks to be displaced slightly more southward and offshore…but this is still several days away and I would not be surprised to see things trend wetter as the pattern of an active sub-tropical jet and wet weather seems to be holding over from November and December. A very much positive sign given our still significant drought in place and low lake levels.
SPC Day 2 Severe Weather Outlook:
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Belmer wrote:Pennsylvania's Punxsutawney Phil says six more weeks of winter. Hmmmm...?
Don't they have to have winter up there before they can have 6 more weeks of it? Or is he saying 6 more weeks of the same weather that they've been experiencing?
Belmer wrote:Pennsylvania's Punxsutawney Phil says six more weeks of winter. Hmmmm...?
Don't they have to have winter up there before they can have 6 more weeks of it? Or is he saying 6 more weeks of the same weather that they've been experiencing?
Someone or someplace in the CONUS will pay for this warmth.
The above post and any post by Tireman4 is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including khou.com. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
true!
