January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

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wxman57
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Yeah, what if the GFS was right? Since it's probably wrong about this weekend and next week's pattern, I'm not inclined to believe it corrected itself 2 weeks out.
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Belmer
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Hahaha, they have New Orleans, LA at 29 degrees for the HIGH on January 8th, 2012. When I checked Houston, they have 43 degrees. Can't rely on this website hardly worth anything, just thought it was fairly interesting. At least some models are trying to pick up on something. If you also look on the previous day, the high is 70 degrees. So that's a 41 degree drop. Now THAT, would be an Arctic Blast. However, a quick warm-up would look to happen after the 'arctic blast'.

NOTE: http://www.myforecast.com has new updates every 6 hours. (What I'm saying now is as of 12:22am Dec. 28th). The new update will be at 6:22am and again at 12:22pm. Take with whatever is beyond 5 days out with a grain of salt.
http://www.myforecast.com/bin/expanded_ ... tric=false


Hope everyone has a wonderful New Years with what could be a maybe, another interesting winter around the Houston area once again. ;)
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wxman57
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Sunday's cold front is coming into better focus now. The 00Z Euro has made a major shift toward less cold air. Yesterday's 12Z Euro had 850mb temps down to -13C along the upper TX coast next Tue/Wed. Last night's run bumped those 850mb temps up to +1C to +2C along the upper TX coast, which is MUCH more reasonable given the Euro's 12Z Tuesday prediction of only a light freeze in that region next Tue-Thu. Given that the source region of the cold air is in southwestern Canada where temps are currently 20-30F above normal, the 00Z Euro is much more believable. Most likely a few light freezes along the upper TX coast next week.

As the Euro trends warmer, the GFS is trending colder for Sunday's front, and it's also backed off on the "12Z oozer" in favor of a stronger front arriving later on Sunday (18Z). Not as late as the Euro (21Z Sun)/Canadian (06Z Mon), but later than yesterday's runs. It forecasts lows in SE TX down to the upper 30s next week. That's probably still too warm, as I think we have a good shot of a Gulf Coast freeze out of this. Nothing colder than we've already seen, just typical January cold.

So it looks like a moderately strong cold front moving through Texas on Sunday, reaching the coast Sunday late afternoon/evening. No bitter cold, as the source region is not that cold. No post-frontal precip, just gusty northerly winds in its wake.

In addition, the Euro has completely backed off on its prediction (from 12Z yesterday) of a major East Coast storm next week in favor of a more progressive upper trof and no storm. This is in line with the Canadian and GFS.
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The next week 'cold snap' looks eerily similar to what we have seen already this season. One point that can add to the model mayhem is the current MJO and Indian Ocean convection as well as mountain torque activity that has be showing up in guidance. I suspect when all is said and done, temps similar to the 26F we saw earlier in December (NW Harris County) will be the outcome. I also suspect that guidance will waffle the next several days before honing in on a solution that will lead to our sensible weather for next week.
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wxman57
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12Z GFS is a little colder than previous runs. It has the 35F contour across Houston next Tuesday morning as the coldest day. No big deal there, but I suspect at least a light freeze is in order next Tue/Wed. Upper 20s in northern parts of Houston and down to 26-27 in Conroe. Conroe was at 30 this morning, so not that much colder than today.
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For the cold weather lover, this is a pattern that would support bringing very cold air into the Lower 48 and much colder temps in NW Canada. To bad it is hour 384 on the 12Z GFS... ;)
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wxman57
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Yeah, too bad...
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Just perhaps there are some changes brewing via the long range Euro... ;)
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wxman57
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I like that spaghetti plot of the GFS ensembles, Ed. Seems the GFS has a real good handle on things...NOT! ;-)

I've been monitoring the Euro's predicted 850mb and surface temps for next week. Here's a breakdown of the last 3 runs:

12Z Tue: 850mb temp -13C over Houston next Tue/Wed. Min surface temp next Wed of 29-30F
00Z Wed: 850mb temp +1C to +2C over Houston next Tue/Wed. Min surface temp next wed of 30F
12Z Wed: 850mb temp +6C over Houston next Tue/Wed with min surface temp 35F

Trend is definitely warmer. Main reason I see is the general lack of cold air in the source region and a U.S. snowfall map that shows little or no coverage from Texas to the Canadian border.

http://images.intellicast.com/WxImages/ ... scover.gif

What does it all mean as far as next week across Texas? Just a moderate/seasonal cold front moving through Sunday afternoon bringing a possible light freeze to near the coast. No post frontal precip and little, if any, pre-frontal rain.
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Is it me, or has most of the country more or less missed out on Winter so far? Texas has actually had average to below average temps....but all in all, it seems like there have been 0 snow storms or severe cold outbreaks in the traditionally cold places.

I know 0 about what is forecast over the rest of the winter, but my gut tells me parts of the country will be hit like a ton of bricks in mid-late January, and the real winter will start around then.

Chicago and NY don't get lucky enough to skip out on winter weather forever, just like we don't get lucky enough to skip out on 100s and humidity in the summer.
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wxman57
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Except for that Halloween snowstorm, it's been rather quiet this winter so far. In December, Bush airport has averaged -0.3F below normal as of the 27th. There are very long-term signals of potential very cold air in NW Canada, but without any snow pack to speak of, we won't have much of a winter down here for the next few weeks at least.
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Could we be entering another cold phase like in the 1970s? The late 1970s from 1976 to 1979 saw some of the coldest winters on record, back to back winters!

National Temperate Ranking December to February 1895-2011
1971-1972 33.17°F 58th La Nina
1972-1973 31.74°F 29th El Nino
1973-1974 33.85°F 79th La Nina
1974-1975 33.61°F 70th La Nina
1975-1976 35.21°F 101st La Nina
1976-1977 30.67°F 11th El Nino
1977-1978 29.68°F 7th El Nino
1978-1979 27.29°F 1st Neutral

1979-1980 33.95°F 84th Neutral

The late 1970s were cold, especially from 1976 to 1979. 1978-1979 is the coldest winter on record! :cold: The winter of 1975-1976 was quite warm and one of the warmest on record. Interesting how it went from warm to cold.


2008-2009 33.65°F 76th La Nina
2009-2010 31.12°F 15th El Nino
2010-2011 32.15°F 37th La Nina
2011-2012 La Nina

1973-1974 and 2010-2011 had strong La Nina, yet they were not warm winters.


Temperature Ranking
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/ranks.php

ENSO
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml
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Praying for a severe cold outbreak! Early WAGs on the Summer forecast is cooler than normal, Thank God, but still dry.

I live in Houston for the economy, not because of the Weather. I really need at least a flash of harsh winter weather.

100 degree heat can go die a slow painful death... give me 20 degrees every day of the year over that 100 degree crap.
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wxman57
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I'm looking at some high-res European model data that goes out 4 weeks now. You can't get this online (for free). The data include surface temperature anomalies and 850mb temperature anomalies through January 23rd. Here's what I see:

Week 1 (Dec 27-Jan 2)
Surface temps 1-2F above normal across SE TX through next Monday and 15-20F above normal across the Northern Plains.

Week 2 (Jan 3-9)
Surface temps near normal across SE TX and 15-20F above normal from the Central Plains through western Canada

Week 3 (Jan 10-16)
Surface temps 2-4F above normal across SE TX and 4-8F above normal from Nebraska through southwest Canada.

Week 4 (Jan 17-23)
Surface temps 4F above normal across SE TX and 6-8F above normal across most of the central and northern U.S. east of the Rockies through the Ohio Valley. Temps in western and NW Canada dropping to 2-4F below normal.

At 850mb (5000 ft), temps are well above normal across the U.S. and western Canada through the next 3 weeks. dropping to 2-3C below normal across western Canada in week 4.

The GFS is in basic agreement with the European model, which would mean no significant cold outbreaks through at least the first 3 weeks of January and possibly through January. There are forecasts of cooling in western Canada by the 4th week of January, though. This could lead to a cold outbreak early in February that might drop our temps significantly below freezing.
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srainhoutx
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It looks like wxman57 will get his wish for warmer weather...for a while, anyway... ;)
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Ptarmigan
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Upper Texas Coast Temperate Ranking December to February 1895-2011
1969-1970 53.63°F 30th El Nino
1970-1971 58.80°F 105th La Nina
1971-1972 58.37°F 101st La Nina
1972-1973 51.03°F 9th El Nino
1973-1974 55.73°F 71st La Nina
1974-1975 56.00°F 78th La Nina
1975-1976 55.63°F 68th La Nina
1976-1977 50.23°F 5th El Nino
1977-1978 48.90°F 1st El Nino
1978-1979 50.70°F 8th Neutral

1979-1980 54.00°F 37th Neutral

The 1970s were cold, especially from 1976 to 1979. 1977-1978 is the coldest winter on record! Talk about back to back record setting cold winters! Four of the top 10 coldest winters occurred in the 1970s. Could we see a repeat of the 1970s? I think so.


2008-2009 57.33°F 96th La Nina
2009-2010 49.63°F 2nd El Nino
2010-2011 54.03°F 38th La Nina
2011-2012 La Nina

2009-2010 was quite cold. It was following a warm winter in 2008-2009. I remember the discussion of lack of warmth in the Winter of 2009-2010.

1973-1974 and 2010-2011 had strong La Nina, yet they were not overtly warm winters.


Temperature Ranking
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/ranks.php

ENSO
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... ears.shtml
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srainhoutx
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The overnight GFS and to some extent, the Euro are suggesting a return to a bit more active pattern. After a cold front passes Sunday bring breezy and cool conditions, a light freeze is possible Monday night/Tuesday morning for our northern areas. As high pressure settles over E Texas Tuesday afternoon, upper 20’s to low 30’s seem possible with excellent radiational cooling. The progressive pattern looks to continue next week with a NW flow aloft. The fly in the ointment begins to appear later in the week as an upper air disturbance slides S along the W Coast. Some cold air may begin to spill S as a disturbance in the northern stream treks SE from the Pacific NW into the Plains. The SW low, via guidance, suggests that a disturbance will cross Texas over the weekend increasing precip chances once again.

In the longer range, there is some indications that the PV over Alaska will begin to relax and high pressure builds allowing much colder air to begin to pool in NW Canada. It may take a couple of weeks for the pattern to shift, but early indications are changes may be ahead as we enter the second half of January.
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Ptarmigan
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NAO and AO are hard to predict and can change quickly. Most of the cold air is over Alaska. Also, there is the PNA.

The February 1989 Freeze is interesting that the NAO and AO was positive, while PNA was negative. It was also in a La Nina, like the January/February 1951 Freeze. The 1951 was a hard and deep freeze. The 1989 freeze was a shallow freeze.

1951
ENSO = La Nina
NAO = Positive
AO = Negative
PNA = Negative

1989
ENSO = La Nina
NAO = Positive
AO = Positive
PNA = Negative
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Yay...our first freeze of 2012
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srainhoutx
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The 12Z Euro and GFS are sniffing another cut off low to our S and W as we saw many times during the month of December for the first weekend in January...
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