January: Increasing Clouds/Rain & Warmer To End Month

[svrwx0503]

Latest mesoanalysis indicates shear continues to increase across the region this evening. Seeing a slow increase in showers between SAT and HOU which is usually an indication of the arrival of stronger large scale lift. Very strong jet dynamics are starting to spread into the state from the west with convection rapidly increasing around Del Rio.

[Andrew]

Early models still suggest we don't get as much rain as places North and West, but they could be pessimistic, and the rain they are showing isn't exactly shabby...

At this point I am more concerned with the severe weather aspect. Plus models like the GFS doesn't look that reasonable with how close the surface low is here.

[Andrew]

Early models still suggest we don't get as much rain as places North and West, but they could be pessimistic, and the rain they are showing isn't exactly shabby...

At this point I am more concerned with the severe weather aspect. Plus models like the GFS doesn't look that reasonable with how close the surface low is here.

GFS heavy rain depicted West of here at 6 am (rush hour), but I'll shake the hand of that helicity.

yea 437 helicity would be pretty intense. Skew-T doesn't look as saturated as past runs unfortuantly....

[sambucol]

At this point I am more concerned with the severe weather aspect. Plus models like the GFS doesn't look that reasonable with how close the surface low is here.

I'm concerned about potentially severe weather, too. Any idea what we should expect tonight and tomorrow?

[Andrew]

At this point I am more concerned with the severe weather aspect. Plus models like the GFS doesn't look that reasonable with how close the surface low is here.

I'm concerned about potentially severe weather, too. Any idea what we should expect tonight and tomorrow?

Dynamics look pretty good. Helicity predictions would support at least mid range tornadoes. The instability and CAPE all look good so there is at least a chance for some pretty severe storms. Look out west too. It is getting bad:

[svrwx0503]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0065
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU...HILL COUNTRY...S-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 13...

VALID 250534Z - 250630Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 13 CONTINUES.

PRIMARILY A SEVERE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT EXISTS WITH DEVELOPING
LINEAR MCS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY W OF WW 13 OVER THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU. ADDITIONAL TSTMS SHOULD STRENGTHEN ACROSS S-CNTRL TX NEAR
LRD THROUGH EARLY MORNING...AND WOULD POSE A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
HAIL/TORNADO RISK.

WELL-ADVERTISED LINEAR MCS INVOF EDWARDS/KINNEY COUNTIES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO EXPAND E/NEWD ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY
WITHIN A ZONE OF FOCUSED ASCENT DOWNSTREAM OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSE
CENTERED OVER FAR W TX. RECENT SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE THAT THIS
CLUSTER HAS REMAINED LARGELY POST-FRONTAL THUS FAR...PRIMARILY
POSING A SEVERE HAIL THREAT. AS ASCENT OVERSPREADS THE BROADER WARM
SECTOR...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
FRONT APPEARS PROBABLE...YIELDING A MIX OF ISOLATED SEVERE
HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREATS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.

MID-LEVEL CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING FARTHER SE TOWARDS
LRD...WITH INCIPIENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARING TO BE UNDERWAY.
GIVEN A MUCH BROADER WARM/MOIST SECTOR ALONG WITH STRONG SLYS AOA 30
KT ALONG AND E OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR...THIS SETUP SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL.

..GRAMS.. 01/25/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

[sambucol]

Thanks for the information. I'm wondering if it's going to be so bad that school will be cancelled. There are some parents who are keeping their kids home tomorrow in anticipation of dangerous weather and possible flooding.

[svrwx0503]

Thanks for the information. I'm wondering if it's going to be so bad that school will be cancelled. There are some parents who are keeping their kids home tomorrow in anticipation of dangerous weather and possible flooding.

Since the worst of the weather isn't forecast to move through the metro area until later in the morning, I do not anticipate any school closings tomorrow. Worst case scenario would be possible early dismissal if the weather is bad enough, although it would likely be safer for everyone to stay put if we do end up seeing significant flooding/severe weather.

[sambucol]

Since the worst of the weather isn't forecast to move through the metro area until later in the morning, I do not anticipate any school closings tomorrow. Worst case scenario would be possible early dismissal if the weather is bad enough, although it would likely be safer for everyone to stay put if we do end up seeing significant flooding/severe weather.

The bad things about early dismissal are some parents not being able to get their kids and teachers needing to get their own children, but can't leave because their students haven't been picked up by their parents. Hopefully, if the weather is looking like it's going to be bad, districts will act early and cancel school.

[texoz]

Possible tornado 40 miles west of Kerville (at 10:50pm).

Hate going to bed with a tornado watch in effect and seeing the kind of storms that are forming southwest of Austin.

[Andrew]

Possible tornado 40 miles west of Kerville (at 10:50pm).

Hate going to bed with a tornado watch in effect and seeing the kind of storms that are forming southwest of Austin.

[Andrew]

Trouble sleeping...

Haha I thought you would be back soon. Too much going on to really sleep. Well at least west....

[Andrew]

Probably have a tornado in Kimble county right now (NWS says only severe storm so far):

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
NORTH CENTRAL KIMBLE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
WEST CENTRAL MASON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN MENARD COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 130 AM CST

* AT 1257 AM CST...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS 5 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
LONDON...OR 12 MILES NORTHEAST OF JUNCTION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
MPH.
STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
QUARTER SIZE HAIL.
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
WITH POSSIBLE STORM IMPACTS...

A FEW VEHICLE DENTS...
MINOR ROOF AND PLASTIC SIGN DAMAGE...
SOME TREE LIMB DAMAGE...WEAKENED TREES TOPPLED...
UNSECURED LIGHT OBJECTS BLOWN AROUND...
SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES POSSIBLE...
POTENTIALLY DEADLY LIGHTNING.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
LONDON BY 105 AM CST...

THE INTERSECTION OF RANCH ROAD 1773 AND RANCH ROAD 1221...US-377
NEAR THE KIMBLE-MENARD COUNTY LINE AND ERNA BY 115 AM CST...
HEXT AND THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 29 AND RANCH ROAD 1222 BY 130
AM CST...

[Andrew]

San Antonio is getting hit hard right now.

[Belmer]

For those who have seen my posts' before, (which I need to edit my profile), I attend Texas State University here in San Marcos (halfway between San Antonio and Austin). Things sure are bad here.
No hail ...yet. But that cell on top of us sure does look bad.

[Andrew]

For those who have seen my posts' before, (which I need to edit my profile), I attend Texas State University here in San Marcos (halfway between San Antonio and Austin). Things sure are bad here.
No hail ...yet. But that cell on top of us sure does look bad.

Let us know how things go over there. Looking pretty bad as you mentioned. Flooding could be an issue also.

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 AM CST
FOR EASTERN COMAL...NORTHEASTERN BEXAR...EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL HAYS
AND NORTHWESTERN GUADALUPE COUNTIES...

AT 144 AM CST...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR RANDOLPH AFB...OR NEAR UNIVERSAL CITY...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE GARDEN RIDGE...MARION...
MCQUEENEY...SOLMS...NEW BRAUNFELS...FREIHEIT...GRUENE...
STARTZVILLE...ZORN...SATTLER AND CANYON LAKE DAM.

[djjordan]

Winds are very gusty here in SGR ..... Seeing an occasional flash of lightning but am also seeing transformers spark as well. This system has some punch to it.

[Andrew]

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
BEXAR COUNTY...

* UNTIL 500 AM CST.

* AT 159 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS HAVE
DETERMINED THAT RAINFALL ESTIMATES FROM DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. A NUMBER OF ROADS IN BEXAR
COUNTY ARE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. STINSON MUNICIPAL AIRPORT HAS
RECEIVED 2.18 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST HOUR.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...SAN
ANTONIO...UNIVERSAL CITY...ALAMO HEIGHTS...CHINA GROVE...CROSS
MOUNTAIN...HELOTES...HILL COUNTRY VILLA...HOLLYWOOD PARK...KIRBY...
LACKLAND AFB...LEON SPRINGS...LEON VALLEY...LIVE OAK...OLMOS
PARK...SEA WORLD...SELMA...SHAVANO PARK...TERRELL HILLS...THE
DOMINION AND WINDCREST.

[Belmer]

For those who have seen my posts' before, (which I need to edit my profile), I attend Texas State University here in San Marcos (halfway between San Antonio and Austin). Things sure are bad here.
No hail ...yet. But that cell on top of us sure does look bad.

TSU-San Marcos is going Division 1 Bowl Subdivision. Look for schools way over the heads in conference who'll lose most of their games to be schedulung San Marcos, McNeese State, North Texas, etc.


Gotta be 15 minutes at least to Hays gets a warning...

Yes, Texas State welcomes the WAC next year. We were 6-6 this season. Hoping for a better one next fall. ...hoping!

[Belmer]

Andrew,

Nothing was significantly severe here. Didn't see any hail or strong winds with it as the Severe Thunderstorm warning mentioned. However, it's starting to lighten up a little bit. Sheets, I literally mean sheets of rain fell for a good 8-12 minutes here. Vivid lightning along with thunder loud enough to set some car alarms off that I can hear out my window.

As heavy as the rain was coming down, I don't put it past me roads are flooded. Though, for anyone who knows this area well. Texas State is up on a large hill that overlooks the city. So no actual flooding at the university besides maybe a low lying parking lot here. But I'm sure down the hill is bad. I have my blinds open and have seen several police officers drive by. I'm sure they are blocking off roads, ...would be my guess.