ENSO Updates

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stormlover
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Re: ENSO Updates

Post by stormlover » Fri Apr 27, 2018 7:04 am

thanks for the response!!!

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Ptarmigan
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Re: ENSO Updates

Post by Ptarmigan » Mon Apr 30, 2018 8:55 pm

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 -0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.7ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

All regions warmed.

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Ptarmigan
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Re: ENSO Updates

Post by Ptarmigan » Sun May 06, 2018 4:14 pm

Ben Noll
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Some key takeaways from the new ECMWF seasonal:

-Weak or moderate #ElNiño favored by Nov.
-Atlantic ACE at 70% of normal.
-Anomalous warmth this summer focused over NW & NE U.S.
-Transitions to a warm fall in the NE.
-Caribbean drought potential.
-Hawaii tropical cyclone risk.

Image

EURO is forecasting weak to moderate El Nino.

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srainhoutx
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Re: ENSO Updates

Post by srainhoutx » Sun May 06, 2018 4:19 pm

The same ECMWF suggested El Nino would return last Hurricane Season and we remember just how wrong it was. Over years of monitoring these ENSO Seasonal Computer Ensemble schemes, they tend to rush what ends up being reality. But that's just my observation... ;)
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Ptarmigan
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Re: ENSO Updates

Post by Ptarmigan » Mon May 07, 2018 5:50 pm

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 -0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.6ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 warmed. All other regions cooled.

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Ptarmigan
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Re: ENSO Updates

Post by Ptarmigan » Mon May 07, 2018 5:54 pm

srainhoutx wrote:The same ECMWF suggested El Nino would return last Hurricane Season and we remember just how wrong it was. Over years of monitoring these ENSO Seasonal Computer Ensemble schemes, they tend to rush what ends up being reality. But that's just my observation... ;)
I usually take long term forecasts with a grain of salt.

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Ptarmigan
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Re: ENSO Updates

Post by Ptarmigan » Mon May 14, 2018 6:12 pm

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 -0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.6ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 is the same. All regions warmed.

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Re: ENSO Updates

Post by stormlover » Tue May 15, 2018 6:20 am

what does all regions warmed mean?

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srainhoutx
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Re: ENSO Updates

Post by srainhoutx » Tue May 15, 2018 7:10 am

stormlover wrote:what does all regions warmed mean?
Note the warming is generally very slow across all Regions. For those anxious to call for El Nino by peak Hurricane Season, I believe a neutral ENSO state seems more likely. That said we may see a more Central Pacific based El Nino Modoki by Winter. Time will tell.
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Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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stormlover
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Re: ENSO Updates

Post by stormlover » Tue May 15, 2018 7:39 am

thank you

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