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General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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Ptarmigan
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 1.1ºC
Niño 3.4 1.1ºC
Niño 3 1.0ºC
Niño 1+2 0.3ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3 are the same. Region 3.4 and 4 have warmed.
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Ptarmigan
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Posts: 3982
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 1.1ºC
Niño 3.4 1.2ºC
Niño 3 0.9ºC
Niño 1+2 0.2ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3 cooled. Region 3.4 warmed, while Region 4 remains the same.
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Ptarmigan
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Posts: 3982
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.9ºC
Niño 3.4 0.8ºC
Niño 3 0.9ºC
Niño 1+2 0.8ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 warmed. Region 3 remains the same. Region 3.4 and 4 cooled.
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Ptarmigan
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Posts: 3982
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.9ºC
Niño 3.4 0.7ºC
Niño 3 0.8ºC
Niño 1+2 0.6ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

All regions cooled, except Region 4, which remains the same.
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Ptarmigan
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Posts: 3982
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 1.1ºC
Niño 3.4 1.2ºC
Niño 3 1.2ºC
Niño 1+2 0.5ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 cooled. Region 3, 3.4, and 4 warmed.
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Ptarmigan
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Posts: 3982
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 1.2ºC
Niño 3.4 1.0ºC
Niño 3 1.1ºC
Niño 1+2 0.8ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 4 warmed. Region 3 and 3.4 cooled.
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Ptarmigan
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Posts: 3982
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 1.2ºC
Niño 3.4 1.1ºC
Niño 3 1.0ºC
Niño 1+2 0.8ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 4 remain the same. Region 3 cooled, while Region 3.4 warmed.
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Ptarmigan
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 1.0ºC
Niño 3.4 1.0ºC
Niño 3 1.0ºC
Niño 1+2 0.7ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

All regions cooled with the exception of Region 3, which is the same from last week.
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Ptarmigan
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Posts: 3982
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.8ºC
Niño 3.4 0.7ºC
Niño 3 0.7ºC
Niño 1+2 0.8ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

All regions cooled with the exception of Region 1+2, which warmed.
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Ptarmigan
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Posts: 3982
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.8ºC
Niño 3.4 0.7ºC
Niño 3 0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 0.2ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3 cooled. Region 3.4 and 4 remains the same,
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Ptarmigan
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Posts: 3982
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.6ºC
Niño 3.4 0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 0.5ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 warmed. Region 3 remains the same. Region 3.4 and 4 have cooled.
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Ptarmigan
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Posts: 3982
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.7ºC
Niño 3.4 0.5ºC
Niño 3 0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 0.9ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2, 3.4, and 4 warmed. Region 3 is the same.
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Ptarmigan
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Posts: 3982
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.7ºC
Niño 3.4 0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 0.2ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

All regions cooled with the exception of Region 4, which is the same from last week.
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Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 3982
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.8ºC
Niño 3.4 0.3ºC
Niño 3 0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 1.0ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 4 warmed. Region 3 and 3.4 cooled.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Ptarmigan wrote: Mon Feb 04, 2019 6:54 pm This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.8ºC
Niño 3.4 0.3ºC
Niño 3 0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 1.0ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 4 warmed. Region 3 and 3.4 cooled.
Not a fan of Region 1+2 warming
Team #NeverSummer
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Ptarmigan
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Posts: 3982
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.8ºC
Niño 3.4 0.4ºC
Niño 3 0.4ºC
Niño 1+2 0.3ºC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 cooled. Region 3 and 3.4 warmed. Region 4 remains the same.
unome
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Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

https://twitter.com/NWSCPC/status/1096049726120697856
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml

Weak El Nino conditions are present and are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~55% chance).

El Nino conditions formed during January 2019, based on the presence of above-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1] and corresponding changes in the overlying atmospheric circulation. The weekly Nino indices remained above average during the month, although decreasing in the Nino-3 and Nino-3.4 regions [Fig. 2]. However, the Nino-4 region remained elevated, with a value of +0.8°C in early February. Positive subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) increased in the last couple weeks [Fig. 3], in association with a downwelling Kelvin wave that contributed to above-average temperatures in the central Pacific [Fig. 4]. Compared to last month, the region of enhanced equatorial convection expanded near the Date Line, while anomalies remained weak over Indonesia [Fig. 5]. Low-level wind anomalies became westerly across the western Pacific Ocean, while upper-level wind anomalies were mostly westerly over the eastern Pacific. The equatorial Southern Oscillation index was negative (-0.6 standard deviations). Overall, these features are consistent with borderline, weak El Nino conditions.

The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume predict a Nino 3.4 index of +0.5°C or greater through at least the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 [Fig. 6]. Given the recent downwelling Kelvin wave and the forecast of westerly wind anomalies, most forecasters expect SST anomalies in the east-central Pacific to increase slightly in the upcoming month or so. Because forecasts through the spring tend to be more uncertain and/or less accurate, the predicted chance that El Nino will persist beyond the spring is 50% or less. In summary, weak El Nino conditions are present and are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2019 (~55% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).

Due to the expected weak strength, widespread or significant global impacts are not anticipated. However, the impacts often associated with El Nino may occur in some locations during the next few months (the 3-month seasonal outlook will be updated on Thursday February 21st).

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts are also updated monthly in the Forecast Forum of CPCs Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. Additional perspectives and analysis are also available in an ENSO blog. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 14 March 2019.

To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

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unome
Posts: 3059
Joined: Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:11 pm

updated post by ENSO Blog Team: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/d ... /enso-blog

ENSO Blog

A blog about monitoring and forecasting El Niño, La Niña, and their impacts.

Disclaimer:

The ENSO blog is written, edited, and moderated by Michelle L’Heureux (NOAA Climate Prediction Center), Emily Becker (contractor to CPC), Nat Johnson (NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory), and Tom DiLiberto and Rebecca Lindsey (contractors to NOAA Climate Program Office), with periodic guest contributors.

Ideas and explanations found in these posts should be attributed to the ENSO blog team, and not to NOAA (the agency) itself. These are blog posts, not official agency communications; if you quote from these posts or from the comments section, you should attribute the quoted material to the blogger or commenter, not to NOAA, CPC, or Climate.gov.

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Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
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Posts: 3982
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
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This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.9ºC
Niño 3.4 0.6ºC
Niño 3 0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 0.6ºC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

All regions warmed.
User avatar
Ptarmigan
Statistical Specialist
Statistical Specialist
Posts: 3982
Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 7:20 pm
Contact:

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 1.0ºC
Niño 3.4 0.7ºC
Niño 3 0.5ºC
Niño 1+2 0.2ºC

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 cooled. Region 3 remains the same. Region 3.4 and 4 warmed.
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