ENSO Updates

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.7ºC
Niño 3 -0.9ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.4ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3 cooled. Region 3.4 and 4 warmed.

[Ptarmigan]

La Niña ends; ENSO Outlook set to INACTIVE
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/outlook/

Code: Select all

The weak 2017-18 La Niña that has been active since December 2017, has ended. All atmospheric and oceanic indices are now at neutral levels, with most model outlooks suggesting neutral-ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) is the most likely scenario through the southern hemisphere autumn and early winter. The ENSO Outlook has returned to INACTIVE.

An INACTIVE status means that ENSO is neutral and there are no clear indications that an El Niño or La Niña event will develop in the coming months.

Bureau climatologists routinely monitor the tropical Pacific for any signs of developing ENSO events, regardless of the ENSO Outlook status. Further information on the current status of ENSO can be found in the ENSO Wrap-Up, linked below.

The Australian BOM has declared La Nina over.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.7ºC
Niño 3 -0.7ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.7ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 cooled, while Region 3 warmed. Region 3.4 and 4 remains the same.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.8ºC
Niño 3 -0.7ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.2ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3.4 cooled. Region 3 is the same, while Region 4 warmed.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.7ºC
Niño 3 -0.6ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.6ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2, 3, and 3.4 warmed. Region 4 cooled.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.5ºC
Niño 3 -0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.1ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 cooled. Region 3 and 3.4 warmed. Region 4 remains the same.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.0ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.4ºC
Niño 3 -0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.3ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 cooled. Region 3 remains the same. Region 3.4 and 4 warmed.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.1ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 -0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 -1.2ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 and 3.4 warmed. Region 3 is the same, while Region 4 cooled.

[stormlover]

srain, what are your thoughts? Do you think its going to be neutral year? el nino year?

[srainhoutx]

srain, what are your thoughts? Do you think its going to be neutral year? el nino year?

Neutral looks more likely than El Nino for Hurricane Season. Watching carefully the potential for 2 very robust Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves crossing the Atlantic Basin in May. I'll address that in our 2018 Hurricane Season General Discussion Topic in our Hurricane Central Section over the next week or so. It's almost that time of year when all eyes turn to the Tropics.

[stormlover]

thanks for the response!!!

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.4ºC
Niño 3.4 0.0ºC
Niño 3 -0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.7ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

All regions warmed.

[Ptarmigan]

Ben Noll
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/stat ... 8222089216

Ben Noll
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Some key takeaways from the new ECMWF seasonal:

-Weak or moderate #ElNiño favored by Nov.
-Atlantic ACE at 70% of normal.
-Anomalous warmth this summer focused over NW & NE U.S.
-Transitions to a warm fall in the NE.
-Caribbean drought potential.
-Hawaii tropical cyclone risk.



EURO is forecasting weak to moderate El Nino.

[srainhoutx]

The same ECMWF suggested El Nino would return last Hurricane Season and we remember just how wrong it was. Over years of monitoring these ENSO Seasonal Computer Ensemble schemes, they tend to rush what ends up being reality. But that's just my observation...

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.2ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.2ºC
Niño 3 -0.3ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.6ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 warmed. All other regions cooled.

[Ptarmigan]

The same ECMWF suggested El Nino would return last Hurricane Season and we remember just how wrong it was. Over years of monitoring these ENSO Seasonal Computer Ensemble schemes, they tend to rush what ends up being reality. But that's just my observation...

I usually take long term forecasts with a grain of salt.

[Ptarmigan]

This Week's ENSO
Niño 4 0.3ºC
Niño 3.4 -0.1ºC
Niño 3 -0.2ºC
Niño 1+2 -0.6ºC

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/analys ... ts-web.pdf

Region 1+2 is the same. All regions warmed.

[stormlover]

what does all regions warmed mean?

[srainhoutx]

what does all regions warmed mean?

Note the warming is generally very slow across all Regions. For those anxious to call for El Nino by peak Hurricane Season, I believe a neutral ENSO state seems more likely. That said we may see a more Central Pacific based El Nino Modoki by Winter. Time will tell.

[stormlover]

thank you