November 2023

[jasons2k]

Some breaks are forming in the clouds out over the Gulf. Agreed the placement has shifted south but the threat is still there.

Edit: I think the folks near Galveston Bay need to keep a very close watch as we move into the afternoon. If I were Reed Timmer I’d be having lunch in Angleton.

[don]

SPC has downgraded the area to a slight risk. Looks like that disturbance is taking a more southerly route than models were showing. Don't let your guard down yet though.

[tireman4]

I wish I could post images...but..alluding to what Jason pointed out....

This may be the first play of the day. Significant lightning jump and organization happening with this cell along coastal brazoria county

[tireman4]

Pat Cavlin
@pcavlin
·
1h
UPDATED TIMING -

While the potential for severe weather has lowered a bit - the timing and thinking remains the same

Peak timing is from now through mid-afternoon
Still a very conditional threat
Isolated tornadoes remain the primary concern

@KHOU
#khou11 #Houston

[jasons2k]

Rotation noted in Brazoria cell. Off we go…

[jasons2k]

I wish I could post images...but..alluding to what Jason pointed out....

This may be the first play of the day. Significant lightning jump and organization happening with this cell along coastal brazoria county

I posted a velocity shot on S2K. Time to start paying attention

[tireman4]

TORNADO WATCH POSSIBLE -

The SPC has highlighted areas along and south of Houston for the potential of a tornado watch later this afternoon

Storms have started to develop across these areas and if trends continue a watch may be needed

@KHOU
#khou11 #Houston #TXwx

[jasons2k]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md2290.html

[djmike]

Something tells me we are going to be disappointed with rainfall totals today except for Galveston. Maybe the euro was right all along…

[don]

Mesoscale Discussion 2290
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1159 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Areas affected...Southeast TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 301759Z - 302000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...The tornado threat may gradually increase with time
through the day. Eventual watch issuance is possible, though timing
is uncertain.

DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing across parts of
southeast TX within a low-level warm-advection regime, with recent
satellite and radar trends indicating an increase in storm intensity
southwest of Galveston Bay. Mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are gradually
streaming northward across the region, though widespread cloudiness
and increasing precipitation will continue to limit heating and
destabilization through the afternoon.

The timing and extent of surface-based supercell development this
afternoon remain uncertain, and may continue to be limited by weak
low-level lapse rates and buoyancy. However, it remains possible
that consolidation of the stronger ongoing elevated convection may
result in transient supercell development, and there is also some
potential for a supercell or two to develop offshore and move inland
later this afternoon. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear (as
noted on the TIAH/THOU VWPs) will support a conditional tornado risk
if any mature supercells can evolve with time. Tornado watch
issuance is possible sometime this afternoon, if observational
trends begin to support imminent supercell potential.

[Cromagnum]

Something tells me we are going to be disappointed with rainfall totals today except for Galveston. Maybe the euro was right all along…

It's been dumping buckets in Lake Jackson

[JDsGN]

Not surprisingly after all the models were showing north of I10 the majority of heavy rain is south of I10. So far i think we've picked up around .20" in Fairfield/Cypress. I was hoping for a solid inch or so today.

[Stratton20]

Just a steady light/ moderate rain here

[snowman65]

I dont any rain out of this. Im fishing Sabine Lake tomorrow and I dont want the rain the mess things up. Its been on lately...lol

[Texashawk]

We’re starting to get some training rain here in Sienna. Decent amount of thunder and heavy rain in the last hour or so.

[don]

Something tells me we are going to be disappointed with rainfall totals today except for Galveston. Maybe the euro was right all along…

Its been raining pretty heavy on the southside of Houston.

[tireman4]

I can attest to that..raining hard in Gulfgate with thunder.

[jasons2k]

Only .15” here so far.
Yes, was expecting a solid 1-2 inches here.
The dew point here is up to 68. It was 54 at midnight. But the rise is leveling off now… window is closing for anything significant this far north.

It’s amazing that in one single SPC update they flip from mostly north of I-10 to south of I-10. A complete flip-flop from one update to the next.

If I did that my boss would fire me.

[ajurcat]

We have received .24 at White Oak Bayou and Fairbanks N Houston.

[jasons2k]

A MCD was issued for NE Texas awhile ago.
I would not be surprised to see another one for the Brazos Valley coming up. It may be another “watch unlikely” type of discussion but some storms are trying to get going along I-35 towards Waco down to Giddings.