December 2023

[DoctorMu]

Cosgrove targets Day 15 plus into January as below normal temp wise

Pow Ponder does, too

Northern tier will be above normal. Texas below normal.

[DoctorMu]

Looks like a warm start. Beyond that is a question mark with a possible flip around the 15th. I would be just fine with some cool, chilly weather for the holidays and a fire going, but I'd also be just fine with finishing 2023 without a freeze at IAH. Maybe we can thread the needle and have both

Give me a 2004 repeat please!

Haha YES!

[Stratton20]

what happened back in the winter of 2004?

[jasons2k]

From Jeff’s email. Some things stay the same

“How far inland this activity extends remains in question even though this activity is likely to develop in the next 6-8 hours.“

[MontgomeryCoWx]

what happened back in the winter of 2004?

Christmas Eve Snowstorm

[Cromagnum]

what happened back in the winter of 2004?

Unexpected snowstorm in parts of the area. I was in Baytown at a girlfriends house for Christmas Eve that evening when it hit. We were in our 20s and went out to play in it like kids.

[don]

I'm loving the the strong cutoff low the models are showing around the 10th.Just the setup we need to get some widespread rain. "crosses fingers"

[jasons2k]

A cutoff low, you say??

[Cromagnum]

Dumping buckets again in Lake Jackson. Futurecast shows some gnarly stuff spinning up near West Colombia over the next hour and tracking northeast towards Pearland.

4:10



5:10

[jasons2k]

5:23 - It’s pouring.

[dp6]

Just got home, can confirm there was a lot of light rain that wasn't showing on the composite radar. How much longer is the Houston radar down, 1 week or 2?

[Cromagnum]

Just got home, can confirm there was a lot of light rain that wasn't showing on the composite radar. How much longer is the Houston radar down, 1 week or 2?

The plan was two weeks, so about 10 more days if they don't run into issues.

[Cpv17]

Well the models are back to looking like a pile of dookie again. Wonderful lol

[Stratton20]

Still 8-9 days out, the 6z GFS is why im not sold on the track of the cut off low

[Cpv17]

Still 8-9 days out, the 6z GFS is why im not sold on the track of the cut off low

I kinda am tbh. This is the pattern we’re in where things tend to blow up east of us. Plus, they were in a bad drought there. So it makes sense for them to be really wet now. The climate models have also been showing this for quite awhile now and most winter precipitation forecasts have the SE getting hammered with rain.

[Cromagnum]

We're gonna stay green all winter aren't we? No cold to be seen.

[Cpv17]

We're gonna stay green all winter aren't we? No cold to be seen.

I just want rain. Cold and wintry weather would just be the icing on top for me.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

We're gonna stay green all winter aren't we? No cold to be seen.

Pretty much everyone is pointing to the last 7-10 days of December and mid January onward as times when we have high probabilities of cold.

[Harp1]

I must say, the outlook right now is rather depressing.

[Stratton20]

Its going to take time but models are showing a stretching of the PV, especially with what guidance is showing the last week of december into early january, this mild pattern will come to an end