January 2020: Unsettled WX Week Ahead

[Cpv17]

First off, Montgomery, sorry about your loss. The GFS ensembles are the only thing that look decent right now. The operationals look bad and so does the EPS. And even the GEFS isn’t looking as good as it was. It has most of the cold staying up near the Midwest and Great Lakes region.

[harp]

This is so confusing. I hear one day: This is looking good. The next day: Nah, not so much. I read MJO looks like it's moving in the right direction. PNA may be going positive, etc. It's difficult to have any expectations when things seem to change from day to day. I'm sure winter weather lovers are just as frustrated as I am. Arrgghh!!!

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Because people live and die by each model run. I haven’t wavered off my prediction of a cold end to January and start to February.

When models go into chaos with ups and downs so do the weather forums. Storm2k is no different. A lot of absolutist takes based on model runs instead of looking at old school forecasting and all the tools available.

[tireman4]

Models will flip flop. They always do. Be patient.

[Cromagnum]

Upper 70s in a couple days. Gross by January standards.

[vci_guy2003]

How is climate change affecting arctic outbreaks? Are we going to get less of them?

[MontgomeryCoWx]

How is climate change affecting arctic outbreaks? Are we going to get less of them?

Well if you believe the poles are warming, one would expect more severe Arctic outbreaks more frequently due to volatility and in places one would not typically see them.

In reality, it’s not as simple as I just made it, and this is more of a conversation over a bottle of bourbon.

We would need to analyze the stratosphere, troposphere and how our traditional ingredients (ocean patterns) for cold are affected.

[Katdaddy]

A thunderstorm is moving onshore near Galveston, TX headed NE toward Galveston Bay this morning.

[snowman65]

Anyone else having problems accessing the GFS? Hopefully they are recalibrating it to be a lot more reliable outside 3 days

[Cpv17]

Anyone else having problems accessing the GFS? Hopefully they are recalibrating it to be a lot more reliable outside 3 days

Yep. 12z is having issues.

[harp]

Tropical Tidbits is down.

[texoz]

How is climate change affecting arctic outbreaks? Are we going to get less of them?

Well if you believe the poles are warming, one would expect more severe Arctic outbreaks more frequently due to volatility and in places one would not typically see them.

In reality, it’s not as simple as I just made it, and this is more of a conversation over a bottle of bourbon.

We would need to analyze the stratosphere, troposphere and how our traditional ingredients (ocean patterns) for cold are affected.

Why is that phrased, "If you believe the poles are warming..." ?

North Pole is clearly warming, which will affect Northern Hemisphere climatic patterns going forward. South Pole on the surface has not shown much warming, but around the edges in the ocean, most definitely.

[srainhoutx]

The afternoon Climate Prediction Center Updated Day 6 to 10 and Day 8 to 14 suggest a change in the pattern is coming. Below normal temperatures look more likely for the Central and Eastern United States with normal to above normal precipitation for portions of Texas.

[jasons2k]

How is climate change affecting arctic outbreaks? Are we going to get less of them?

Well if you believe the poles are warming, one would expect more severe Arctic outbreaks more frequently due to volatility and in places one would not typically see them.

In reality, it’s not as simple as I just made it, and this is more of a conversation over a bottle of bourbon.

We would need to analyze the stratosphere, troposphere and how our traditional ingredients (ocean patterns) for cold are affected.

Why is that phrased, "If you believe the poles are warming..." ?

North Pole is clearly warming, which will affect Northern Hemisphere climatic patterns going forward. South Pole on the surface has not shown much warming, but around the edges in the ocean, most definitely.

Yes. And as MontgomeryCountyWx said, we could debate this one all night over a bottle of bourbon - hehe.

My $.02 - yes, the increase in warmth will result in more volatility, which, in theory, could result in more frequent cold outbreaks.

But the flip side is - well, the obvious - you have less cold air and arctic ice, and those outbreaks can’t be as severe.

We’ve seen the setup a few times over the last several years, but when it’s time to “dump” down the plains, the bitterness isn’t what it used to be.

I believe we have seen enough warming over the last 100 years that until it is reversed, there won’t be another 1899-like outbreak. There is just not enough cold and ice up there any longer to make it happen.

I think that 17 we saw a few years ago would have been 7 if it had occurred 50+ years ago....

[Cpv17]

A lot of chatter about how winter is just about to get started later this month and into February, but I just don’t really see it yet on the models. I’m not one that’s educated enough to know what to look for exactly so what the heck do I know lol I don’t see that much cold air headed this way, not even on the ensembles. I will say that the models do look fairly wet though. My guess would be that we’ll be slightly below normal temps wise with above normal precipitation for the next few weeks.

[harp]

Operational GFS finally coming around! Trend is our friend.

[Katdaddy]

A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect for all of SE TX this morning which will make for a messy morning commute. A warm, cloudy, damp day ahead with scattered showers and patches of fog. Another round of Dense Fog Advisories likely this evening and overnight.

[redneckweather]

Man this place is dead. Let me kick things up a notch.

[harp]

I have been very surprised how dead this place has been. Things are trending in the right direction. At least for now.

[snowman65]

Man this place is dead. Let me kick things up a notch.


20200114_095829.jpg

Don't believe the hype. Watch it disappear like a David Copperfield show LOL