October: Chilly Halloween Outlook

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Ptarmigan
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Super Typhoon Hagibis is now a Category 5 super typhoon. It underwent rapid intensification.
https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp2019web.txt

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WTPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUPER TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR 011    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071800Z --- NEAR 16.5N 145.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 145.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 17.7N 142.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 19.0N 140.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 20.3N 139.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 21.8N 138.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 25.4N 136.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 29.1N 135.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 34.9N 138.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 144.4E.
07OCT19. SUPER TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 168
NM NORTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 55 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.
//
NNNN
I suspect the winds are stronger than 160 mph. More like 180 to 190 mph. :shock: :o

Here is satellite image of Hagibis.
Image

Looks kinda like Patricia and Wilma.

Patricia
Image

Wilma
Image
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Ptarmigan
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Cpv17 wrote: Mon Oct 07, 2019 6:47 pm Wow!! :shock:

Image
Anything can change between now and 16 days from today. It would be nice to see the rain for sure, especially areas that need it. 8-)
Seantx81
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Hagibis has 55 Foot waves

Nope... :shock:
I keep losing my usernames. Formerly vertigoss/seanatsk.

Survived Ike in Katy, Harvey in Dickinson and Allison in my car.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Here’s to Hagibis taking a dump in the North Pacific or Bering Sea
Team #NeverSummer
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Texaspirate11
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Lovely evening with the north wind breeze
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djmike
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A beautiful crisp 62 in Beaumont this morning! Hello fall. ...finally. ;)
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68 here in Wharton. Was expecting it to be a few degrees cooler. Oh well, still feels good.
Cpv17
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I’m seeing a pretty good rain signal on the GFS. Let’s see if the Euro starts showing it.
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snowman65
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What does the timing look like of the frontal passage for the golden triangle Friday (early morning, mid morning,noon, etc)?
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srainhoutx
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Still some disagreement among the Global guidance. The GFS is the quicker of these with morning/midday passage on Friday with the Canadian/Euro suggesting the evening hours. Looks mighty chilly Saturday morning with 50's for most and possibly some upper 40's to the North. We may struggle to reach a high of 70 on Saturday.
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JDsGN
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Has the southerly flow kicked in early? I just ran to the store and expected it to be a bit more refreshing but my temp gauge showed 77 and it’s pretty humid. Weather ap shows 70 but I’m not buying it.
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srainhoutx
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Rollercoaster weather pattern ahead for the next 7 days. Onshore flow has returned and temperatures will be on the rise once again. A powerful winter like storm is organizing across the Northern Rockies and a strong surface low will wrap up tonight into tomorrow across the Northern Plains where some locations could see over a foot of snow in portions of the Dakotas and MN. Snow showers may extend as far S as Kansas and that refrigerated air mass will rush across Texas Thursday night into Friday bringing much chillier air in its wake. We may see a 30 to 35 degree temperature drop with the arrival of that strong Canadian front, so be prepared Friday. Saturday will feel like Fall has really arrived, but that will be short lived. Onshore flow resumes Sunday night and a surge of deep tropical moisture pushes in off the Gulf next Monday and continues into mid next week. Some of the models are indicating that tropical moisture from the Eastern Pacific and a sheared out storm system near Baja could bring additional moisture across Texas. Not sure I totally buy that solution just yet. A lot of folks need rain and there is just too much uncertainty at this range to feel confident in any measureable rain chances.
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CrashTestDummy
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JDsGN wrote: Tue Oct 08, 2019 11:06 pm Has the southerly flow kicked in early? I just ran to the store and expected it to be a bit more refreshing but my temp gauge showed 77 and it’s pretty humid. Weather ap shows 70 but I’m not buying it.
It's felt a LOT more humid than the gauges are indicating, in my opinion. Not sure what it is, but while it was cool, it really felt damp. We even have some fog this morning in N. Brazoria county.
Gene Beaird,
Pearland, Texas

"You can learn a lot from a Dummy."
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Texaspirate11
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What a beautiful morning - 67 degrees and I can just feel the Fall....
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Cpv17
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CrashTestDummy wrote: Wed Oct 09, 2019 8:20 am
JDsGN wrote: Tue Oct 08, 2019 11:06 pm Has the southerly flow kicked in early? I just ran to the store and expected it to be a bit more refreshing but my temp gauge showed 77 and it’s pretty humid. Weather ap shows 70 but I’m not buying it.
It's felt a LOT more humid than the gauges are indicating, in my opinion. Not sure what it is, but while it was cool, it really felt damp. We even have some fog this morning in N. Brazoria county.
I agree. The air wasn’t crisp. Yesterday morning felt quite a bit better. Plus today at work I started sweating a lot faster than I did yesterday.
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Crazy stuff!! The NAM doesn’t have us getting out of the low to mid 50’s on Friday and has low 60’s for Saturday. What the heck? Lol

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srainhoutx
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Wednesday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Strong cold front will blast across the region on Friday

Upper air pattern will amplify and produce a strong fall snowstorm across the northern plains and portions of the Rockies late this week. Modified Canadian air mass with temperatures currently in the 20’s will plow southward down the front range of the Rockies Thursday and across Texas and off the coast on Friday. Strong cold air advection will accompany this front with a sharp drop in temperatures of at least 15-20 degrees Friday as the front moves across the area. Many locations will see high temperatures in the low to mid 70’s prior to the frontal passage and then quickly fall into the low 60’s and eventually the 50’s by mid to late afternoon. Strong north winds of 15-25mph will result in a very cool afternoon and evening on Friday compared to the last several months.

Will likely see both pre frontal and post frontal showers and thunderstorms on Friday, but rain accumulations will likely be on the lower side or on average .25-.75 of an inch. Post frontal cloudy skies into Friday afternoon and evening will allow the cold shallow air mass to entrench over the area quickly on Friday.

Skies will begin to clear early Saturday, but cold air advection will remain in place and only allow temperatures to warm to near 70 on Saturday even with mostly sunny skies. Most of the day will be spent in the 60’s with NE winds…so it will continue to feel “cold”. Overnight lows Sunday morning should fall into the 50’s over nearly all of the area, except the coast where water temperatures and still very warm. Would not be surprised to see some of the western and northern areas fall into the 40’s.

Cold Canadian high pressure moves eastward later Sunday allowing a return of SE winds and heat and humidity will be back into the area on Monday along with daily rain chances.
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djmike
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Any decent cold fronts on the horizon AFTER Fridays front? Soooo ready for the front parade. This heat and humidity coming back the next day is not fair. Lol
Mike
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djmike wrote: Wed Oct 09, 2019 1:46 pm Any decent cold fronts on the horizon AFTER Fridays front? Soooo ready for the front parade. This heat and humidity coming back the next day is not fair. Lol
No, there doesn’t appear to be anymore fronts coming anytime soon after the one on Friday. In fact, we have a pretty good chance at seeing a return to well above average temps and some strong chances for rain.
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Yeah, it's a tease. In beyond done with hot and humid. As soon as I can retire (in 25 years, sigh) I'm moving away from Houston
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