July 2019: Warming Trend/Slight Chances For Rain

[jasons2k]

Lots of thunder. Rain to the east, rain to the west, I’m in-between in a void of nothingness.

I just got a little bit. There's still two more cells that we will get a piece of. I'd take two tenths of rain a day, every day in the Summer.

That’s Florida weather right there! We were down there again a few weeks ago. The move last year didn’t work out, but we’re gonna try again in a couple years when I’m done with my Master’s ...

[jasons2k]

Well well, new cell now to my south moving-in. We’ll see if it holds together...

Edit: melting on arrival but I did manage .10”

[Cpv17]

The difference between the GFS and Euro is ridiculous regarding our potential rainfall. Not sure if I’ve ever seen such disagreement between the two models.

[Texaspirate11]

Still no rain by the bay....

[jasons2k]

Still no rain by the bay....

I feel your pain. Hope you can get some showers down there!!

[tireman4]

Heat Index Values Today

[tireman4]

307
FXUS64 KHGX 181133
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
633 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Satellite imagery showing some stratus again over parts of the
area but not quite as thick as the past couple of mornings. MVFR
conditions are very close to KCLL and expect ceilings to develop
the next couple of hours. Same can be said for KUTS and KCXO.
Farther south stratus is less thick so keeping Houston area
terminals at VFR to start the TAFs. There is a small chance of
isolated showers and storms this afternoon so will keep VCSH in
TAFs for KIAH and KCXO. Models are not hinting at much activity
given slightly drier conditions and stronger ridge aloft. Look for
low stratus decks to form again tonight into tomorrow morning.

Overpeck

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 359 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019/...

.SHORT TERM [Today through Tonight]...
Yesterday there was a bit more shower and thunderstorm activity than
expected over northern Harris and Montgomery Counties. This was
mainly due to a higher area of moisture/precipitable water. GOES 16
sounder precipitable water imagery depicted this higher area of
moisture and now shows that it has moved off to the north and
decreased. Precipitable water values are now down to 1.6 to 1.7
instead of near 2 inches yesterday afternoon. Upper level ridging
also looks to be stronger today with 500mb heights of 594-595dm over
the area. This ridge should expand and keep a zonal jet stream in
place over the northern tier of states.

We are going to try not swing the pendulum too much with PoPs today
as there should be less convective coverage than yesterday even
though there was quite a bit more activity than expected. We will
keep a smattering of 20-30 PoPs for areas where mesoscale models
think showers and a few storms will be possible. There may be a few
showers that form late morning through early afternoon with possibly
a strong storm or two with the sea breeze. Bulk of the activity
should focus through Harris and Montgomery Counties like the last
day or two.

The only other issue to monitor will be heat index values again.
Forecast has dewpoints mixing out during the afternoon but there are
a few spots that inevitably do not mix leading to higher heat index
values. These higher values could reach heat advisory criteria but
may only be observed for an hour or two and not widespread enough
for a heat advisory. Still it will be something to monitor.

Overpeck


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Thursday]...
Patchy fog looks possible again early Friday morning, lifting
shortly after sunrise. Friday should be the hottest day through
the upcoming week, with mostly sunny skies overhead and high
temperatures rising into the low to mid 90s area wide. Heat index
values will range between 103 to 106 degrees, approaching
borderline heat advisory criteria. A typical summertime pattern
will remain in place through the beginning of next week with
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. By
Saturday the chance for showers and thunderstorms return, allowing
for better cloud cover and slightly cooler temperatures. The
region of high pressure that was overhead will weaken and shift to
the northwest allowing for better moisture return with onshore
flow. Overall coverage in precipitation does look to increase
Sunday and Monday. Although, there appears to be some disagreement
in the overall placement strength of a trough axis that
eventually pushes over SE TX Sunday. Global guidance such as the
ECMWF is not as strong with this inverted trough axis as is the
GFS. Regardless, this region of low pressure eventually gets
picked up by what looks to be a frontal boundary that attempts to
slide southeast into the Gulf of Mexico sometime between Wednesday
morning to Thursday afternoon, depending on the model solution.
Therefore, the next best chance for showers and thunderstorms will
be associated with this feature Tuesday and Wednesday. Given the
amplified pattern in the upper levels, if this front does make its
way into the Gulf, which is unusual for this time of year, expect
slightly drier dewpoints to usher in and only slightly cooler
temperatures by a few degrees Thursday and Friday.

Hathaway


.MARINE...
Overall the next few days we can expect a typical summer time
forecast. Winds will generally be from the south around 10-15 knots
with a slight increase to 13-17 knots at times overnight. This will
also support seas around 2-4 feet. The only other concern will be
slightly higher tides and rip currents. Tides should be about a half
foot to a foot above normal but not cause any problems.

Overpeck

.CLIMATE...
Yesterday was another warm day, breaking/tying two high minimum
temperature records. Houston Hobby recorded a low temperature of
80 degrees yesterday which breaks the old record high minimum
temperature of 79 degrees set in 1987. Secondly, the city of
Galveston set a record high minimum temperatures of 84 degrees,
tying the old record of 84 degrees set in 1987.

Hathaway

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 96 77 97 76 95 / 0 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 94 78 95 78 93 / 10 10 10 0 20
Galveston (GLS) 90 83 90 82 89 / 20 10 10 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$


AVIATION...Overpeck

[tireman4]

Cold Front in July...Entertainment Purposes Only...

[Pas_Bon]

Cold Front in July...Entertainment Purposes Only...

LOL I'm entertained, alright.
Perhaps we will see frozen precip. in Montgomery County with this one.

[jasons2k]

PWAT measurements may be lower today, but the sky still looks juicy and tropical...

[srainhoutx]

PWAT measurements may be lower today, but the sky still looks juicy and tropical...

I actually had a brief tropical shower around 8:30.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 181548
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1048 AM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Mid to upper level ridge will continue to dominate the local
weather today with lower low level moisture content. PWs range
from 1.4 to 1.7 inches on the model and sounding data. The
highest PWs are expected to be located along the southern counties
in the morning moving northward across the central and northern
counties in the afternoon. Satellite imagery this morning does
show areas of cumulus clouds building across the southern and
northeastern portions of the CWA. A few light to moderate showers
currently noted on the radar, mainly over Brazoria county.

Although mid to upper level high pressure remains in place and
drier conditions are expected, sea breeze effects and diurnal
heating could provide some lift and develop isolated showers and
thunderstorms during the late morning and afternoon hours.
Activity, if any, would dissipate in the evening with the loss of
heating, remaining dry tonight. Increased the POPs mainly south
of I-10 for the the morning and included POPs in and around the
Harris, Liberty, Fort Bend, Montgomery counties for this
afternoon.

Elsewhere, another hot day can be expected. High temperatures
should range between the low and mid 90s this afternoon.
Localized areas could experience heat indices near heat advisory
criteria for an hour or two. Take extra care if you plan to work
or spend time outdoors.

24

[Cpv17]

The Euro has us getting several inches and the GFS barely anything. Which one to believe?

[Texaspirate11]

Still no rain by the bay....

I feel your pain. Hope you can get some showers down there!!

Had to water the grass again today...

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 181723
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1223 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019

.AVIATION...
Generally VFR conditions are expected through 06z. Moisture
profiles look a bit drier than yesterday but can`t rule out
a few showers or late aftn thunderstorm. COuld get a brief window
of MVFR/IFR ceilings toward KCLL after 09z with a hour or two of
MVFR ceilings at KIAH just after sunrise. Looks even drier on
Friday and did not mention VCSH for any of the terminals. 43

&&

[jasons2k]

Radar has less on it now than at lunchtime. That ridge must be exerting it’s influence now.

[Katdaddy]

Another hot mostly sunny SE TX day on the way however a change is on the way with an increase in thunderstorms beginning this weekend and into next week. In addition, the late July cool front still looks to arrive Tuesday-Wednesday of next week.

[tireman4]

High Temperatures Today

[tireman4]

081
FXUS64 KHGX 191116
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
616 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...

Low stratus and isolated patches of fog are cropping up across the
area this morning. Heaviest cloud cover is in the north, and
explicitly include an MVFR ceiling at CLL. MVFR also possible at
the I-45 terminals (fog at CXO, ceilings at others) but not enough
confidence to explicitly put in the TAFs. If it occurs, look for
it to be brief right around daybreak. After that, look for sky
cover to decrease into the afternoon, with bases rising above VFR
(though ceilings are unlikely anyway) and south winds picking up
to around 10 knots. Finally, look for something approximating
persistence overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 337 AM CDT Fri Jul 19 2019/...

.DISCUSSION...

- Increasing thunderstorm chances through the weekend into early
next week.
- Change in upper level pattern will allow for a front to move
through the area Tuesday into Wednesday.




.SHORT TERM [Today and Tonight]...

Satellite and observations show mostly clear skies across
Southeast Texas underneath ridging, though there are a few flecks
of clouds at the 2000ish foot level. This will have little impact
on sensible weather at the surface, but may need to be accounted
for in aviation forecasts, along with some patchy fog in the usual
foggy spots. Radar indicates perhaps a nocturnal shower or two
over the Gulf, though most of the returns on radar look to be sea
spray instead.

Have spread a slight chance of sprinkles near the coast this
morning, just in case any marine showers drift onshore, but
largely think we`ll be looking at generally scattered clouds (or
less) thanks to the ridging in place, and precipitable water in
the 1.3 to 1.5 inch range. This should largely suppress rain
chances, but it`s hard to completely rule out a slight chance of
sprinkles or even an isolated shower/storm with a seabreeze
boundary and strong diurnal heating.

On the flip side, high dewpoints will keep low temperatures this
morning high for yet another day. This will provide a solid floor
from which to see strong heating into the afternoon. Inland, we
should see another day with highs in the low to middle 90s, closer
to 90 degrees at the coast. Of course, there is little surprise
that we will likely see heat indices rising above the century
mark today into the 100-105 range for most of the area.

Luchs


.LONG TERM [Saturday Through Friday]...

Thunderstorm chances increase over the weekend due to a couple of
factors. First higher moisture gets drawn up from the Gulf
Saturday into Sunday such that more scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible by Sunday. This also lines up with
when an inverted trough sneaks under the upper level ridge and
moves across the northern Gulf coast reaching the area late
Sunday. This also allows for lower 500mb heights over the area
along with slightly increased large scale ascent. While this is
happening, 500mb heights increase over the 4 Corners region into
the Great Basin. Sunday into Monday the pattern becomes more
amplified as the ridge increases.

By Monday night into Tuesday the upper level pattern becomes
amplified with the ridge over the Great Basin and a substantial
trough over the Great Lakes. This pattern should persist through
much of the week with NAEFS/ECMWF ensembles showing 500mb heights
in the 90th percentile associated with this ridge. Tuesday through
Thursday the trough axis extends from the Great Lakes all the way
into Texas creating a weakness in the ridging between the ridge
to the west and ridging over the western Atlantic. This also
allows for a front to move into the area Monday night and Tuesday.
This is also where we will go with higher PoPs for scattered
showers and storms along the frontal boundary. The forecast will
maintain thunderstorm chances through the rest of the week with
the front stalling off the coast and then dissipating. Higher
moisture pooled along the front in the Gulf then moves back north
later in the week thereby needing thunderstorm chances to
continue.

Overall the main impacts from storms next week will be typical
heavy rainfall, gusty winds and lightning. Storms should stay
below severe levels but would not be surprised at an isolated
strong/severe storm Sunday into Monday before the front arrives.
The main threat for a severe storm will be downburst winds as
freezing levels will be quite high limiting hail growth.

Overpeck


.MARINE...

Typical summertime conditions on the Bays and Gulf are expected at
least through the weekend. This is complete with daytime winds
closer to 10 knots during the day, drifting upwards to around 15
knots. This is right around the SCEC threshold, but with waves
expected to be around 3 feet or less, have opted against the
caution flag at this time.

At the beaches, Galveston Beach Patrol reports mainly moderate rip
currents, but an occasionally strong rip current is being
observed. As with the SCEC, will abstain from a rip current
statement at this time, but if Beach Patrol indicates conditions
are worsening, a statement may be issued.

Looking ahead, a weak cold front could enter the coastal waters
as we push towards the middle of next week.

Luchs

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 96 77 96 77 96 / 10 0 10 0 10
Houston (IAH) 94 79 93 78 93 / 20 10 20 10 30
Galveston (GLS) 90 82 90 82 90 / 20 20 20 10 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...Overpeck
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Luchs

[srainhoutx]

Odds are increasing that we will see a rare July 'Cold' front arrive Tuesday into Wednesday. That front likely to stall somewhere near or just offshore and could bring rounds of showers and storms. Clouds, rain and light Northerly breezes should offer a reprieve from our typical mid to late July stagnant pattern.