June 2019: Chance Of Rain Returns

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Re: June 2019: Cooler Temperatures/Isolated Showers

Post by Texaspirate11 » Tue Jun 11, 2019 7:37 am

Just beautiful out. Nice to be able to breathe.
Just because you're disabled, you don't have to be a victim
Be Weather Aware & Prepared!
Barbara Jordan Winner in Media
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Re: June 2019: Cooler Temperatures/Isolated Showers

Post by tireman4 » Tue Jun 11, 2019 7:50 am

Amazing. I love it. Woo Hoo..If only our Summers were like this...

000
FXUS64 KHGX 111206
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
706 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR for the 12Z TAFS with mainly high clouds and NE winds expected
across the area today. Any SHRA/TSRA are expected to stay to the
SW of the sites. Light winds tonight. Wind shift to the N expected
during the day tomorrow as a cold front moves into the area. Might
see some SHRA/TSRA development with this front. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 425 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019/...

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Wednesday Afternoon]...
Deeper moisture levels remain in/around the Matagorda Bay area
and off the lower coast where some early morning showers and
thunderstorms have been drifting to the south and southwest.
With daytime heating, expecting to see more shower/thunderstorm
development mainly late this morning through this afternoon in/
around our southwest counties and the Matagorda Bay area. Models
gradually work this moisture field further eastward tonight and
Wednesday. With a weak cold front moving into the area from the
north and northwest and daytime heating, think we may see some
shower/thunderstorm development mainly around and south of the
I-59/69 corridor on Wednesday. Have made little changes to the
temperature forecast which has warmer afternoon highs coming
back to the area on Wednesday. 42

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...
Thursday through early Saturday should be fairly quiet weather wise,
with dry conditions in place behind another weak frontal boundary
which should eventually push off the coast Thursday morning. Winds
will remain out of the northeast much of the day Thursday before
turning back onshore Friday. Behind this frontal boundary, expect
drier dew points in the upper 50s to 60s. Rather zonal upper level
flow sets up late Thursday afternoon, with mostly clear skies
overhead through at least Friday morning. High temperatures Thursday
and Friday will be in the low to mid 90s. Partly cloudy conditions
return by Friday afternoon as better moisture is pumped into the
region. As a result, expect a warming trend mid week through the
weekend, with high temperatures climbing steadily into the mid 90s
this weekend and apparent temperatures once again in the low 100s.

The chance for showers and thunderstorms increases Saturday, as a
more summer like regime returns. Forecast soundings bring
precipitable water values back to 1.5 to 1.7 inches, with some
instability to work if able to erode a decent cap between 850-700 mb
layer. Convective temperatures Saturday in the upper 80s to low 90s
should be reached, and would expect to see some convection to
develop along the sea breeze by the afternoon hours. Still some
disagreement in the upper level pattern in the extended between the
global guidance in regards to a few upper level disturbances or
shortwaves. The GFS appears more bullish and sends a shortwave
across SE TX both early Saturday evening and another on Saturday
afternoon, while the ECMWF only shows signs of a weak disturbance
Saturday afternoon. Regardless, with better moisture and warm
temperatures in place this weekend, would expect the possibility of
showers and thunderstorms to return by Saturday afternoon and
continue through the beginning of next week, with the sea breeze
providing the best focus for convection.

.MARINE...
With most of the area`s northeast winds still up early this
morning, will continue to carry SCEC flags until mid morning
when speeds are expected to begin a downward trend under a
relaxing gradient. Mainly east to southeast winds are expected
across the waters tonight and Wednesday followed by a shift to
the north and northeast Wednesday night and Thursday as a weak
front moves off the coast. An onshore flow returns to the area
and strengthens beginning Thursday night and Friday as surface
high pressure moves off to the east and pressures begin to fall
off to our northwest. Over the weekend, caution flags will
likely be needed, and advisories will be possible. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 86 66 90 68 90 / 0 0 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 89 69 92 72 93 / 0 0 20 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 87 78 88 78 89 / 0 10 30 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.


&&

$$

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Re: June 2019: Cooler Temperatures/Isolated Showers

Post by srainhoutx » Tue Jun 11, 2019 1:37 pm

82F with a DP of 59 at 2 PM in NW Harris County. Nice and comfortable for mid June!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

Member: National Weather Association
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Twitter @WeatherInfinity

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Re: June 2019: Cooler Temperatures/Isolated Showers

Post by Cpv17 » Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:41 pm

srainhoutx wrote:
Tue Jun 11, 2019 1:37 pm
82F with a DP of 59 at 2 PM in NW Harris County. Nice and comfortable for mid June!
88 in Wharton with DP of 66 at 3 PM. Still pretty warm down here. No complaints though.

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Re: June 2019: Cooler Temperatures/Isolated Showers

Post by tireman4 » Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:51 pm

000
FXUS64 KHGX 112022
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
322 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

.DISCUSSION...

A seasonable stretch continues across the area. We are running a
touch cooler than seasonal averages, and while a warming trend
this weekend into early next week will ensue, we`re not likely to
rise more than a few degrees above those averages then.

As is typical for early summer, we`ll also be looking for chances
at showers and storms scattered throughout the week. And while
this time of year we usually can`t completely rule out a storm or
two gets feisty and produces damaging winds or torrential
rainfall, there`s also no indication at this time of anything
beyond an extremely isolated threat at worst.


.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

Observations show dewpoints are mixing out very well this
afternoon, so as much as we like to joke about the futility of
cold fronts in June, there`s a notable difference between temps
in the mid-90s with a heat index of 105-110 versus temps in the
mid- 80s with a heat index only a couple of degrees higher. Sure,
it`s still hot, but today is likely more bearable outside than
it was this weekend.

We`ve got some showers and storms way out west as a shortwave
trough approaches the area. Best chance for storms will be around
Matagorda Bay, and we could also squeeze out some showers farther
north towards College Station, but less moisture means the
atmosphere will be less amenable to rain up there. For the rest of
the area, precipitable water drops starkly from 1.9 inches to
less than 1.5 inches per GOES-East TPW, and so rain chances should
drop off similarly. The loss of daytime heating as the shortwave
moves east into tonight will mean a decrease in convection as
well.

With drier air having filtered in, lows up north tonight look
likely to fall into the 60s, with gradually increasing moisture
keeping temps up a little higher towards the coast, with
Galveston`s forecast low coming in at 77, right around the early-
mid June average low.


.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

The vort max aloft associated with the shortwave will push farther
offshore as the longwave trough it is embedded in digs further
south, but also starts to shift east of the area. With that, I
expect that the best chances for showers and storms will push out
over the Gulf through the morning, and eventually come to an end.
This will usher in an extended stretch of fair weather that will
carry us through the rest of the short term.

With the upper longwave trough digging east, we`ll look for a
building of a ridge aloft to our west, along with high presure
dropping into the region at the surface. Subsidence will increase,
and we`ll be expecting plenty of sun. 850 temps don`t rise super
quickly though, so while we should warm back up into the 90s as we
head into the late week, the trend should be a fairly slow one.


.LONG TERM [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Low pressure looks to develop in the lee of the Rockies, and with
high pressure moving towards the east coast, we`ll see the return
of onshore flow by Friday. As that low deepens, the pressure
gradient will tighten, and that onshore flow will strengthen,
increasing humidity across the area. The most visible impact of
this will be higher overnight low temperatures, as well as the
return of scattered to broken cloud cover with the isentropic lift
of air from over the Gulf being shoved up over the drier air over
the continent.

The surface low will be trailing a cold front, but with its upper
support and the surface low itself ejecting to the Great Lakes,
the subtropical ridge will be working to build back over the area.
Seems pretty unlikely for any frontal impact to work into the
picture. Instead, we should settle into the typical diurnal
pattern of life under the subtropical ridge. This means we`re
unlikely to have a completely dry day from Saturday on when you
consider the area as a whole, but the chances for any given spot
to see rain is relatively low - 20-30ish percent, mainly.

Temperatures can be expected to rise both as the overnight floor
raises and as ridging aloft builds back over the area. The higher
dewpoints will also make for higher heat indices. No signals of
any apparent temperatures significantly above normal, but it will
likely become a daily chore to evaluate the potential for a
marginal heat advisory (probably coming a little short each day)
from Saturday or Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION [18Z TAF Issuance]...

VFR. Precipitation well south of PSX should continue to spread
northward into the coastal areas of the southwestern CWA. S/W
nearing Del Rio area from the west should dampen as it shifts east
and could bring some showers or isolated thunderstorms to the
northwest and possibly enhance development near the coastal trough
but other than a period of VCSH for CLL a relatively benign TAF
period. Winds generally light and should become variable and
decouple tonight as surface ridge axis traverses through LA/E TX.
Bubble high should lead to more northern winds developing
Wednesday afternoon but light.
45

&&

.MARINE...

Showers and storms around Matagorda Bay this afternoon should
weaken, and drift back towards the Gulf through tomorrow. Winds
and seas may be locally higher near any storms. Otherwise, look
for northeasterly winds to become variable as high pressure drifts
across the region, becoming onshore by Friday and strengthening
into the weekend. Winds and seas seem likely to reach SCEC and
possibly even the small craft advisory threshold at times this
weekend and very early next week.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 66 90 68 90 69 / 20 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 71 92 70 93 71 / 20 10 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 77 87 77 88 80 / 30 20 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.



&&


$$

NEAR TERM...Luchs
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM...Luchs
AVIATION...45
MARINE...Luchs

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Re: June 2019: Cooler Temperatures/Isolated Showers

Post by DoctorMu » Tue Jun 11, 2019 4:34 pm

tireman4 wrote:
Tue Jun 11, 2019 7:50 am
Amazing. I love it. Woo Hoo..If only our Summers were like this...

000
FXUS64 KHGX 111206
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
706 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
VFR for the 12Z TAFS with mainly high clouds and NE winds expected
across the area today. Any SHRA/TSRA are expected to stay to the
SW of the sites. Light winds tonight. Wind shift to the N expected
during the day tomorrow as a cold front moves into the area. Might
see some SHRA/TSRA development with this front. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 425 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2019/...

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Wednesday Afternoon]...
Deeper moisture levels remain in/around the Matagorda Bay area
and off the lower coast where some early morning showers and
thunderstorms have been drifting to the south and southwest.
With daytime heating, expecting to see more shower/thunderstorm
development mainly late this morning through this afternoon in/
around our southwest counties and the Matagorda Bay area. Models
gradually work this moisture field further eastward tonight and
Wednesday. With a weak cold front moving into the area from the
north and northwest and daytime heating, think we may see some
shower/thunderstorm development mainly around and south of the
I-59/69 corridor on Wednesday. Have made little changes to the
temperature forecast which has warmer afternoon highs coming
back to the area on Wednesday. 42

.LONG TERM [Thursday Through Tuesday]...
Thursday through early Saturday should be fairly quiet weather wise,
with dry conditions in place behind another weak frontal boundary
which should eventually push off the coast Thursday morning. Winds
will remain out of the northeast much of the day Thursday before
turning back onshore Friday. Behind this frontal boundary, expect
drier dew points in the upper 50s to 60s. Rather zonal upper level
flow sets up late Thursday afternoon, with mostly clear skies
overhead through at least Friday morning. High temperatures Thursday
and Friday will be in the low to mid 90s. Partly cloudy conditions
return by Friday afternoon as better moisture is pumped into the
region. As a result, expect a warming trend mid week through the
weekend, with high temperatures climbing steadily into the mid 90s
this weekend and apparent temperatures once again in the low 100s.

The chance for showers and thunderstorms increases Saturday, as a
more summer like regime returns. Forecast soundings bring
precipitable water values back to 1.5 to 1.7 inches, with some
instability to work if able to erode a decent cap between 850-700 mb
layer. Convective temperatures Saturday in the upper 80s to low 90s
should be reached, and would expect to see some convection to
develop along the sea breeze by the afternoon hours. Still some
disagreement in the upper level pattern in the extended between the
global guidance in regards to a few upper level disturbances or
shortwaves. The GFS appears more bullish and sends a shortwave
across SE TX both early Saturday evening and another on Saturday
afternoon, while the ECMWF only shows signs of a weak disturbance
Saturday afternoon. Regardless, with better moisture and warm
temperatures in place this weekend, would expect the possibility of
showers and thunderstorms to return by Saturday afternoon and
continue through the beginning of next week, with the sea breeze
providing the best focus for convection.

.MARINE...
With most of the area`s northeast winds still up early this
morning, will continue to carry SCEC flags until mid morning
when speeds are expected to begin a downward trend under a
relaxing gradient. Mainly east to southeast winds are expected
across the waters tonight and Wednesday followed by a shift to
the north and northeast Wednesday night and Thursday as a weak
front moves off the coast. An onshore flow returns to the area
and strengthens beginning Thursday night and Friday as surface
high pressure moves off to the east and pressures begin to fall
off to our northwest. Over the weekend, caution flags will
likely be needed, and advisories will be possible. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 86 66 90 68 90 / 0 0 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 89 69 92 72 93 / 0 0 20 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 87 78 88 78 89 / 0 10 30 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 10 AM CDT this morning
for the following zones: Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Galveston Bay...Waters from
Freeport to Matagorda Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60
NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport TX from 20 to 60
NM.


&&

$$

About the most comfortable June day I can remember in Texas. Dewpoint around 59°F, temp in low 80s, NNE breeze, partly cloudy. Bottle it up. Potentially, a rain shower to top things off. Wonderful.

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Re: June 2019: Cooler Temperatures/Isolated Showers

Post by Katdaddy » Wed Jun 12, 2019 4:54 am

A weak disturbance with showers and a few thunderstorms are pushing offshore this morning. A partly to mostly sunny day across SE TX a slight chance of afternoon showers.
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Re: June 2019: Cooler Temperatures/Isolated Showers

Post by tireman4 » Wed Jun 12, 2019 8:39 am

153
FXUS64 KHGX 121136
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
636 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019

.AVIATION [12Z TAF Issuance]...
Early morning SHRA/TSRA near the coast (LBX and GLS) will be decreasing
in coverage and intensity during the remaining morning hours with the
bulk of activity moving offshore. The remaining TAF sites are VFR with
mainly high clouds in the forecast as drier air filters into the area.
Will be watching north Texas activity as it continues to sag to the
S and SE toward our area. For now, just expecting high clouds. Have
mainly light N to NE winds at most sites. 42
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /Issued 406 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019/...

.SHORT TERM [Today Through Thursday Afternoon]...
Weak disturbance moving across the state that has generated
current shower/thunderstorm activity will be moving off to
the east today resulting in decreasing coverage. Drier air
will be filtering into the area behind this activity, but
daytime heating might be able to generate enough instability
for some additional development during the day. Best chances
will be closer to and off the coast. Tonight through Thursday
afternoon will be dry. Today`s high temperatures will be
slightly warmer than the area saw yesterday, and readings are
expected to warm up another degree or two on Thursday. 42

.LONG TERM [Friday Through Wednesday]...
Little change in the global guidance through the extended portion
of the forecast. A rather dry airmass should remain in place
through late Friday, with a strong cap between the 850 to 700 mb
layer. High temperatures Friday will reach into the low 90s area
wide, with low temperatures Saturday morning in the low 70s to
80s. In the early morning hours Saturday, forecast soundings have
hinted at the development of radiational fog, but with moderate
onshore flow in place, not so confident we will see winds
decouple.

Northwesterly upper level flow should continue through essentially
Saturday afternoon when semi-zonal to occasionally southwesterly
flow takes over through at least the middle of next week. The
occasional pulse of energy looks to propagate across the Plains
Friday through the weekend. The ECMWF remains the more benign model,
keeping most of these pulses of energy embedded in the upper level
flow well north of southeast Texas, with the first shortwave moving
across the Red River Valley late Saturday, and another across
Oklahoma Sunday. The GFS on the other hand does send a shortwave
through the Red River Valley Friday morning, before digging the vort
max south in the afternoon hours, potentially reaching just north of
the forecast area before shifting eastward. The GFS also sends a
similar shortwave across North Texas and Oklahoma Sunday like the
ECMWF does. The NAM12 follows a more similar pattern as the GFS, and
sends a shortwave across the Red River Valley Friday morning and
into the evening hours, but does not dig the trough as far south as
the GFS. Therefore, with little in the way of synoptic features to
act as an area of focus for showers and thunderstorms, would
anticipate most of the convection Saturday and into the beginning of
next week to be more summer-like in nature. With precipitable water
values (PWs) increasing to 1.5+ inches by Saturday afternoon,
convective temperatures in the low 90s, and daily high temperatures
continuing to warm, would expect a sea breeze to set up each day
this weekend and into the beginning of next week acting as an axis
of convergence for the development of showers and thunderstorms in
the afternoon hours.

Hathaway

.MARINE...
Shower/thunderstorm coverage will be decreasing as the day
progresses today. Winds will be variable until late tonight
and Thursday when northeast to east winds settle into the
area. Still have an onshore flow returning to the area on
Thursday night and Friday (as surface high pressure moves
off to the east) and then strengthening over the weekend as
pressures begin to fall off to our northwest. The increase
in winds and/or seas will eventually reach caution or
advisory levels. The onshore flow will persist into next
week. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

College Station (CLL) 88 68 89 68 94 / 10 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 91 71 92 70 93 / 20 10 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 87 78 88 80 88 / 40 10 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

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Re: June 2019: Warming Temperatures

Post by tireman4 » Wed Jun 12, 2019 12:30 pm

FXUS64 KHGX 121754
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1254 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for the 18Z TAF issuance...

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected during of the forecast period. A line
of showers is currently developing along the coastline as a
result of local and diurnal effects and could occasionally result
in MVFR conditions at KGLS and KLBX. VCSH are currently in place
for the aforementioned TAF sites. These showers are expected to
dissipate later this afternoon. Clear to partly cloudy skies with
light northerly winds are expected today and tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2019/

UPDATE...

Upper level trough will continue to move across the Central Plains
today. Clear to partly cloudy skies with temperatures ranging
between the upper 70s to lower 80s were observed this morning.
Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity that affected the
coastal regions and local waters earlier this morning has now
moved away from our region. Only a small lingering patch of
showers remains over the offshore waters and is expected to
dissipate within the next few hours. A few minor changes were made
to the inherited forecast including POPs, Wx, Winds and Wind Gust
to best represent the current radar and surface observations.
Mostly tranquil weather conditions expected during the rest of the
day as drier air settles across SE TX.

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Re: June 2019: Warming Temperatures

Post by Cpv17 » Wed Jun 12, 2019 2:16 pm

Not sure where the 60’s were this morning and this lower humidity. Haven’t really felt any of that around here.

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