MAY 2019: Wednesday Storm Complex/Scattered Showers To End May

[srainhoutx]

Hot and dry looks to be the theme for the long Memorial Day Holiday Weekend. Weather should not interfere with outdoor activities, so enjoy and take time to remember those that made the ultimate sacrifice for our Freedom!

I do see some signs of a change beyond mid next week as that SE Ridge relaxes. Details are fuzzy, but a stalled boundary and possibly some deep tropical moisture spreading NW from the Caribbean could interact to increase rain chances. Time will tell about that extended period.

[jasons2k]

The morning runs the last few days have been almost oppressive. It came-on like a light switch so my body is taking some time to adjust. It feels good to sweat though. I’d much rather sweat than shiver.

[Cpv17]

Well the GFS has been hinting at some rain towards the end of the month. The Euro isn’t onboard yet though.

[tireman4]

The morning runs the last few days have been almost oppressive. It came-on like a light switch so my body is taking some time to adjust. It feels good to sweat though. I’d much rather sweat than shiver.

Yep. I have 5 days of 7 milers coming up..not looking forward to it...the adjustment....

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 220945
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
442 AM CDT Wed May 22 2019

.DISCUSSION...
The regional weather pattern has (and ultimately will) transition
to more summer-like this coming 7 day period. As already
eloquently stated by the previous shift`s climate research, these
past few days of warmer than normal diurnal temperature (maximums)
will be a preview of the next several days. While afternoon
maximum temperatures have only been a few degrees warmer than mid
to late May max temperature standards, the recent record
tying/breaking very warm minimum temperatures have been the better
storyline. While moisture levels of between 1.2 and 1.4 inches
have fallen within the climatology ho-hum 50-75 percentiles, it
has been the stout overnight near surface southerlies that have
kept many mixed and only falling into the near sunrise upper 70s.
While we will not be experiencing 15 to 25 mph (Monday night &
Tuesday morning-like) overnight winds, subsequent daily nocturnal
winds will remain in the 5 to 10 knot range and, with slightly
lower pwats through late week, minimum temperatures will fall back
into the closer-to-normal average lower to middle 70s. With no
frontal passages expected in the near future, the dominant wind
will remain onshore. Thus, isolated early day streamer near-coastal
(sea-to-land frictional) showers, along with mostly overcast
skies, can be expected the next couple of mornings as the near
surface layer saturates up under the mid level warm nose.

Upper ridging is forecast to expand in from the east tomorrow and
this will guarantee a very summer-like weekend...more full sun with
days warming from the sunrise low to mid 70s into the mid day lower
90s. Suppression brought on from a near 595 dam ridge centered over
the southeastern U.S. should be enough to keep the area bone dry
over the weekend and into early next week. Cut and Paste days in the
medium and extended period as each day will come in within a degree
of the previous day. The next chance of rain comes late Tuesday
through Wednesday...low chances from a (potential) Plains upper
trough passage dragging a weak mid-low level boundary into north
central Texas. `If` upper ridging does decide to concede a bit, then
expect modest chances for mid week rain. Of course, the alternative
of an anchored ridge translates to continued dry...unseasonably warm
days achieving the average lower 90s. Current (up to 6 foot depth)
soil moisture values around 50% saturation will likely be much drier
after a full week of no measurable rain. This will feedback into
increasingly warmer afternoons. Too early to carelessly throw out
the "D" word though....31

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to occasionally strong onshore winds and elevated seas will
persist for the next couple of days. Expect a combination of
advisory/caution flags for the remainder of the work week. Speeds
and seas should generally diminish as we head into the weekend, and
trend into a more typical summer-like pattern with higher winds
offshore at night that relax during the day. Pressure gradient
tightens again early next week with a corresponding increase of
winds/seas.

Coastal Flood Advisory will continue along the coast. Minor coastal
flooding remains a possibility around times of high tide. Went ahead
and included the bayside portions of Harris and Galveston counties
(where we saw some impacts yesterday around Seabrook and Lynchburg)
to capture their high tide today. Expect increased wave run up and a
high risk of rip currents along area beaches. I think the highest
observed levels were probably observed yesterday and anticipate
impacts to be slightly less each day as we head into Thurs/Fri. The
hope is these advisories won`t be needed after Fri morning. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR conditions should lift into VFR territory during the mid/late
morning hours. South-southeast winds will increase this morning and
become gusty into the late evening hours. MVFR ceilings should
redevelop by mid evening and persist overnight. 47

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 76 90 74 90 / 10 0 20 0 0
Houston (IAH) 90 77 89 74 89 / 10 0 20 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 85 79 85 79 86 / 10 0 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM CDT Thursday for the following
zones: Brazoria Islands...Galveston Island and Bolivar
Peninsula...Matagorda Islands.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM CDT this
afternoon for the following zones: Coastal Galveston...
Coastal Harris.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION through Thursday morning for
the following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

Discussion...31/47

[jasons2k]

The morning runs the last few days have been almost oppressive. It came-on like a light switch so my body is taking some time to adjust. It feels good to sweat though. I’d much rather sweat than shiver.

Yep. I have 5 days of 7 milers coming up..not looking forward to it...the adjustment....

The older we get, the harder it gets. I’ve grown more conscious about staying hydrated and limiting my runs to the morning hours in summer. It’s hard to believe that growing-up in Tampa, I ran any hour of the day with no worries....

And summer band up in Plano on a concrete “field.” There was no such thing as bottled water back then (except Evian). We just sucked it up and dealt with it.

[srainhoutx]

Keep an eye on the Central America Monsoonal gyre for potential NW Caribbean/EPAC tropical development as May comes to an end. There are growing indications that at the least some deep rich tropical moisture may spread into the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Season starts June the 1st.

[DoctorMu]

Hot and dry looks to be the theme for the long Memorial Day Holiday Weekend. Weather should not interfere with outdoor activities, so enjoy and take time to remember those that made the ultimate sacrifice for our Freedom!

I do see some signs of a change beyond mid next week as that SE Ridge relaxes. Details are fuzzy, but a stalled boundary and possibly some deep tropical moisture spreading NW from the Caribbean could interact to increase rain chances. Time will tell about that extended period.

So it begins.

A rueful eye soon for the double edged sword of tropical development. Waves and lemonade only, please!

[DoctorMu]

Keep an eye on the Central America Monsoonal gyre for potential NW Caribbean/EPAC tropical development as May comes to an end. There are growing indications that at the least some deep rich tropical moisture may spread into the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Season starts June the 1st.

X marks the spot.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 221743
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1243 PM CDT Wed May 22 2019

.AVIATION...
Breezy again today and Thursday. Skies have trended toward VFR and
this should prevail through the afternoon except perhaps LBX/GLS
where intermittent MVFR ceilings will remain possible this
afternoon. Overall a drying trend noted in the profiles as PW of
1.2" today diminishes down to closer to 1" tonight then rebounds
back to 1.3-1.4" Thursday but still capped. Should see MVFR
around 1500-2000ft ceilings develop between 02-04z over most of
the sites and prevail until after 15z Thursday. Winds today gusty
with 16015g25kt being typical as well as tomorrow.
45

[tireman4]

he Storm Prediction Center has placed a POTENTIAL DANGEROUS SITUATION TORNADO WATCH for CENTRAL/SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA .... This includes Oklahoma City Metro and nearby Wichita Falls Metro.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southwest and Central Oklahoma
Western North Texas

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 230 PM
until 1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* Primary threats include...
Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 3 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Isolated intense thunderstorms are expected to affect the
watch area this afternoon and early evening. Any storm that
persists will pose a risk of strong tornadoes, very large hail, and
damaging winds.

[Cpv17]

Looks like monsoonal gyre season is about to begin. Happens almost every year in June and if that SE ridge holds stout we could get something here.

[jasons2k]

It's amazing to me how much action they get up in the semi-arid Panhandle and SW Oklahoma, but that same inflow down here along the coast is too dry and capped for anything. Not wishing for severe weather, but a clap of thunder with some rainfall would be welcome.

[snowman65]

I just want to know when this wind is going to chill out for awhile....geez already.

[Cpv17]

I just want to know when this wind is going to chill out for awhile....geez already.

That’s what’s been helping feed the tornado outbreaks up north as well. Yeah, I agree with you. It needs to chill out. Drying out everything out way too fast and blowing dust around everywhere.

[jasons2k]

he Storm Prediction Center has placed a POTENTIAL DANGEROUS SITUATION TORNADO WATCH for CENTRAL/SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA .... This includes Oklahoma City Metro and nearby Wichita Falls Metro.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of
Southwest and Central Oklahoma
Western North Texas

* Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 230 PM
until 1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* Primary threats include...
Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely
Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
to 3 inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

SUMMARY...Isolated intense thunderstorms are expected to affect the
watch area this afternoon and early evening. Any storm that
persists will pose a risk of strong tornadoes, very large hail, and
damaging winds.

I only checked every few hours, but I don't know that there were even any confirmed tornadoes in the PDS box. Almost all of the action was northeast of there....

[Texaspirate11]

Really bad tornado outside of Joplin.

[unome]

Really bad tornado outside of Joplin.

Jefferson City also

https://www.broadcastify.com/listen/ctid/1504
https://www.weather.gov/lsx/
https://twitter.com/iembot_lsx
https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/lsr/# ... 40459/0100
https://twitter.com/bhensonweather
https://twitter.com/gdimeweather

[unome]

ditto

https://twitter.com/pmarshwx/status/1131531813774614528

Patrick Marsh
‏ @pmarshwx

uncle

uncle.jpg

[srainhoutx]

Thursday morning weather briefing from Jeff:

Upper level ridge will gradually amplify over the SE US where an early season record heat wave is likely into next week.

SE TX will lie on the western edge of this ridge with a continued moderate to at times strong onshore flow feeding the “battle” ground across the southern and central plains between the ridge to the SE and trough over the western US. Overall pattern is fairly stagnant with little change expected so tornadoes and flooding will continue into next week across the plains.

Locally, what you see is what you will continue to see with onshore flow helping to maintain overnight lows in the 70’s and daytime highs either side of 90. Smoke continues to transport northward from wildfires in southern MX and visible images show smoke covering all of the southern and western Gulf of Mexico, so this will maintain the smoky/hazy look to the skies. With the upper ridge trying to nose into the area over the weekend into early next week, this will pretty much limit any rain chances. Could maybe see an isolated shower move inland off the Gulf, but they will be few and far and if this were to happen most likely near/around Matagorda Bay.

While heat index values will remain at or below 100, it is important to remember that early season heat can be harder on the body that is still trying to adjust to the new heat stress. Take it easy in the afternoon and try and limit outdoor exposure between the hours of noon and 500pm. Luckily the onshore flow will continue in the 10-20mph range which will help to offer a “cooling” breeze.

Hurricane season begins June 1…get prepared!