APRIL 2019: Warm & Muggy WX to End The Month

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unome
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Re: APRIL 2019: Comfortable Sunday. Rain/Storm Chances Mid Week

Post by unome » Sat Apr 13, 2019 7:39 pm

I feel sorry for those still in the path of this system, nothing worse than severe weather at night

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Re: APRIL 2019: Comfortable Sunday. Rain/Storm Chances Mid Week

Post by srainhoutx » Sat Apr 13, 2019 9:03 pm

Preliminary survey of Franklin Tornado suggests an EF-3 (winds of 140 MPH). Last time Robertson County had an F-3 was May 10, 1959.
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Re: APRIL 2019: Comfortable Sunday. Rain/Storm Chances Mid Week

Post by Belmer » Sun Apr 14, 2019 5:25 am

Our next storm threat will be coming up in a few days. Timing right now for our area looks to be Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning as another low pressure deepens as it crosses the Rockies into the Central Plains swinging a trough through here. The SPC currently has a 15% for our area with a greater threat further north into NE Texas up towards the Midwest. This will get fine tuned as we get closer as there are still some kinks to work out. Nonetheless, Spring is making itself known.
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0355 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Models have come into much better agreement through the medium-range
period as compared to 24 to 48 hours prior. Both now depict a
strong upper trough moving out of the Rockies and into the Plains
Day 4 (Wednesday 4-17), eastward into the Mississippi Valley region
Day 5 (Thursday 4-18), and then across the Ohio and Tennessee
Valleys Day 6(Friday 4-19). This system will be accompanied by an
associated/well-developed surface low and frontal system, with the
low progged to begin occluding Day 5 over the upper Midwest region.
The cold front is currently expected to reach the Appalachians by
the end of Day 5 (Friday morning), and then continue eastward to the
coast through Saturday morning.

Once the front clears the coast, surface high pressure residing over
the Gulf of Mexico in the wake of the front and a weaker upper
pattern suggests a relative lull in severe potential Days 7-8 (next
weekend).

Meanwhile however, as the system emerges into the Plains Day 4,
strong -- though somewhat meridional -- flow accompanying the system
should combine with an amply moist/unstable warm sector to permit
storm development, within a zone of ascent focused near the
low/front. Though models differ somewhat with respect to the
position of the surface low, a somewhat bi-modal risk may evolve --
with one relative maximum near and ahead of the surface low where
directional shear should be greatest (currently expected in the
vicinity of Iowa), and a second from the southern Plains eastward
into the Ozarks/Arklatex where the most substantial CAPE should
evolve. Large hail and damaging winds are expected, along with some
tornado risk -- especially nearer the surface low/warm front.

As widespread convection develops through the overnight hours, and
shifts eastward, a more complex forecast becomes apparent due to the
effects of the precipitation and associated cloud cover an
warm-sector destabilization for Day 5 -- and similarly for Day 6 as
the expansive area of convection continues advancing eastward toward
the Atlantic Coast. While details with respect to severe risk are
therefore difficult to highlight this far in advance, large 15% risk
areas will be maintained, given the strength of the upper system
which will provide a kinematic field favorable for severe storms
atop a warm/moist pre-frontal airmass.

..Goss.. 04/14/2019
Attachments
SPC Day 4.gif
SPC Day 4 Outlook
SPC Day 5.gif
SPC Day 5 Outlook
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Re: APRIL 2019: Comfortable Sunday. Rain/Storm Chances Mid Week

Post by Andrew » Sun Apr 14, 2019 7:14 am

For anyone interested, here is a sounding issued out of College Station yesterday when the tornado over Hearn was occurring. Notice how the cap had weakened enough and low-level shear had increased enough to provide plenty of rotation. Also shows how important that 0-1km shear is for the formation of tornadoes in general.
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57154507_2259243157467489_741640822230876160_o.jpg
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Re: APRIL 2019: Comfortable Sunday. Rain/Storm Chances Mid Week

Post by Cpv17 » Sun Apr 14, 2019 7:07 pm

Models are starting to come around to what looks like a wet pattern ahead for the rest of April. Could be looking at a big time severe weather threat late Wednesday/early Thursday across all of the viewing area.

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Re: APRIL 2019: Comfortable Sunday. Rain/Storm Chances Mid Week

Post by unome » Mon Apr 15, 2019 4:09 am

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html
SPC AC 150728

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2019

Valid 171200Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS SOUTHWEST ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS...

...SUMMARY...
Strong/severe storms are forecast Wednesday afternoon and evening,
from the Iowa vicinity south-southwest into the southern Plains.

...Synopsis...
A gradually strengthening upper trough will move out of the Rockies
and into the Plains Wednesday, and will be the primary feature of
interest this period. Flanking the trough, ridging will encompass
the western and eastern portions of the country.

At the surface, a weak low initially over Kansas is forecast to
shift northeastward to Iowa by sunset, and then into the northern
Illinois/Wisconsin area overnight. Along a trailing cold front,
models forecast weak secondary/frontal low development over the
southwest Oklahoma vicinity during the afternoon -- likely near the
intersection of the front an a southward-extending dryline. This
cold front and dryline should focus late afternoon development of
strong/locally severe storms.

...Portions of the central and southern Plains east to the lower
Missouri/mid Mississippi Valleys...
As low-level moisture spreads gradually northward on southerly flow
ahead of the advancing storm system, steep lapse rates associated
with eastward advection of an elevated mixed layer will result in
development of a moderately unstable but capped warm sector.

Capping should hinder convective development -- particularly over
the southern Plains -- until late afternoon, but expect storms to
eventually develop along the cold front, and southward along an
eastward-mixing dryline as ascent increases in advance of the
strengthening upper system.

With flow aloft forecast to gradually strengthen as the trough
advances, shear sufficient for supercells will reside across much of
the area by afternoon. As such, developing storms will likely
become quickly severe given the degree of CAPE expected, with very
large hail likely to be the primary severe risk. Greatest risk for
the largest hail appears to exist across the southern Plains, near
the axis of steepest lapse rates associated with the elevated mixed
layer advecting northeastward from northern Mexico/New Mexico.
Damaging wind gusts will also be possible locally, and a tornado or
two cannot be ruled out. Convection will continue overnight --
spreading eastward toward the Mississippi River, but severe risk
should gradually diminish overnight.

..Goss.. 04/15/2019
day3prob_0730.gif
day3otlk_0730.gif

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Re: APRIL 2019: Comfortable Sunday. Rain/Storm Chances Mid Week

Post by srainhoutx » Mon Apr 15, 2019 5:53 am

  • PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
    252 AM CDT MON APR 15 2019

    ...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 04/13/19 TORNADO EVENT...CORRECTED

    SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTED SOUTHEAST TEXAS ON APRIL 13, 2019.
    IN ADDITION TO NUMEROUS STRAIGHT-LINE WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL REPORTS,
    THREE TORNADOES HAVE BEEN CONFIRMED. THESE STORMS WERE THE INITIAL
    PORTION OF A MUCH BROADER SEVERE WEATHER EVENT THAT STRETCHED
    ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THROUGH APRIL 13 AND CONTINUED INTO
    THE MID-ATLANTIC ON APRIL 14.

    A DAMAGE SURVEY TEAM WENT TO HOUSTON COUNTY ON APRIL 14 AND SURVEYED
    DAMAGE TRACKS FROM THREE TORNADOES. TWO OF THOSE SURVEYS WERE DONE
    JOINTLY WITH WFO SHREVEPORT, AS THE TRACKS CROSSED THE BOUNDARY
    BETWEEN THE TWO OFFICES' AREAS OF RESPONSIBILITY. MORE DETAILS ON
    THE PORTIONS OF THE TRACKS NOT IN THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON COUNTY
    WARNING AREA WILL BE RELEASED BY WFO SHREVEPORT.

    .TORNADO # 1 - WECHES...

    RATING: EF-3
    ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 140 MPH
    PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 15 MILES
    PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 800 YARDS
    FATALITIES: 1
    INJURIES: 0

    START DATE: APRIL 13 2019
    START TIME: 1256 PM CDT
    START LOCATION: 10 ENE OF CROCKETT / HOUSTON COUNTY / TX
    START LAT/LON: 31.3997 / -95.3037

    END DATE: APRIL 13 2019
    END TIME: 118 PM CDT
    END LOCATION: 3 NE OF WECHES / HOUSTON COUNTY / TX
    END_LAT/LON: 31.5790 / -95.1660

    TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN HOUSTON COUNTY NORTHEAST OF CROCKETT AND
    TRACKED FOR 30 MILES ACROSS THE COUNTY LINE THROUGH CHEROKEE COUNTY.
    THE HOUSTON COUNTY PORTION OF THE PATH WAS 14 MILES. MOST OF THE
    DAMAGE WAS SNAPPED PINES INDICATE OF EF-1 DAMAGE BUT MUCH MORE
    SEVERE DAMAGE WAS FOUND IN AN AREA JUST NORTHEAST OF WECHES WHERE A
    DOUBLE-WIDE TRAILER AND ITS FRAME WERE THROWN OVER 150 YARDS AND
    DESTROYED. A FEMALE OCCUPANT WITHIN THE TRAILER WAS KILLED.

    .TORNADO # 2 - LOVELADY...

    RATING: EF-2
    ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 130 MPH
    PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 3.85 MILES
    PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 100 YARDS
    FATALITIES: 0
    INJURIES: 0

    START DATE: APRIL 13 2019
    START TIME: 1223 PM CDT
    START LOCATION: 7 WSW OF LOVELADY / HOUSTON COUNTY / TX
    START LAT/LON: 31.0789 / -95.5773

    END DATE: APRIL 13 2019
    END TIME: 1228 PM CDT
    END LOCATION: 5 W OF LOVELADY / HOUSTON COUNTY / TX
    END_LAT/LON: 31.1212 / -95.5348

    TORNADO PRODUCED INTERMITTENT DAMAGE ALONG ITS TRACK TAKING A
    METAL ROOF OFF OF A HOME WHERE IT TOUCHED DOWN. THE MOST SEVERE
    DAMAGE WAS ON THE NORTHEAST END OF THE TRACK WHERE TREES WERE
    STRIPPED OF LIMBS, VEHICLES WERE TOSSED AND STACKED ON ONE
    ANOTHER AND A DOUBLE-WIDE TRAILER HOME WAS DESTROYED.

    .TORNADO # 3 - TADMOR...

    RATING: EF-1
    ESTIMATED PEAK WIND: 90 MPH
    PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/: 0.30 MILES
    PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/: 75 YARDS
    FATALITIES: 0
    INJURIES: 4

    START DATE: APRIL 13 2019
    START TIME: 1133 AM CDT
    START LOCATION: 1 NE OF TADMOR / HOUSTON COUNTY / TX
    START LAT/LON: 31.4337 / -95.1715

    END DATE: APRIL 13 2019
    END TIME: 1135 AM CDT
    END LOCATION: 1.5 NE OF TADMOR / HOUSTON COUNTY / TX
    END_LAT/LON: 31.4337 / -95.1704

    TORNADO DAMAGE WAS FOUND ALONG COUNTY ROAD 1175 WITH TREES SNAPPED
    AND UPROOTED ALONG A PATH PARALLEL TO THE ROAD. NEAR THE END OF
    THE PATH, THE TORNADO DESTROYED A DOUBLE-WIDE TRAILER HOME AND
    PUSHED IT INTO A WOODED AREA. FOUR OCCUPANTS IN THE HOME WERE
    INJURED BUT, AS OF APRIL 14TH, WERE RELEASED FROM THE HOSPITAL.

    EF SCALE: THE ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE CLASSIFIES TORNADOES
    INTO THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES.

    EF0...WEAK......65 TO 85 MPH
    EF1...WEAK......86 TO 110 MPH
    EF2...STRONG....111 TO 135 MPH
    EF3...STRONG....136 TO 165 MPH
    EF4...VIOLENT...166 TO 200 MPH
    EF5...VIOLENT...>200 MPH*|

    NOTE:
    THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE
    PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT AND PUBLICATION IN NWS STORM DATA.

    $$
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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Re: APRIL 2019: Comfortable Sunday. Rain/Storm Chances Mid Week

Post by Cromagnum » Mon Apr 15, 2019 6:02 am

Looks like roughly the same areas have been under the gun for the last 3 severe events.

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Re: APRIL 2019: Rain/Storm Chances Mid Week/Easter Outlook

Post by djmike » Mon Apr 15, 2019 7:17 am

Is it just me or does it seem like severe weather last several springs are further north and we catch only the very tail end line...Certainly not begging for it, just seems further north than always before. Like we’ve shifted somehow.
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(IH-10 & College St. area)

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Re: APRIL 2019: Rain/Storm Chances Mid Week/Easter Outlook

Post by Cromagnum » Mon Apr 15, 2019 7:21 am

djmike wrote:
Mon Apr 15, 2019 7:17 am
Is it just me or does it seem like severe weather last several springs are further north and we catch only the very tail end line...Certainly not begging for it, just seems further north than always before. Like we’ve shifted somehow.
Now you've gone and done it.

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