February 2022

[tireman4]

Will we see a repeat of last year? Will it be frosty, warm or normal?

[mcheer23]

Hmm

[Cpv17]

Hmm

That’s definitely interesting!

[don]

I like the 500mb trough orientation the models are showing next week.Could allow the arctic air to come straight down the plains.With energy digging to the west of us.

[Cpv17]

This is a pretty good setup for next week. Not quite where it needs to be yet but there’s still a lot of time to work on that:

[Stratton20]

Thats a good setup for a winter storm ( almost) next week is going to be interesting

[Cpv17]

Thats a good setup for a winter storm ( almost) next week is going to be interesting

It needs to dig a little further south into Mexico and I’d like for there to be more ridging over Alaska.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 ah gotcha! But this definitely is a very good start

[Iceresistance]

The 18z GFS is just, YIKES!

[Stratton20]

Hard to see but I cant zoom in any closer but FWIW the 18z GEFS does have some members on board with a wintry storm next week, key word “just a few right now though) this is days 8-9

[Iceresistance]

Hard to see but I cant zoom in any closer but FWIW the 18z GEFS does have some members on board with a wintry storm next week, key word “just a few right now though) this is days 8-9

You can put the region to (South-Central USA) so you can get a better visual of Oklahoma & Texas!

[Stratton20]

After figuring out how to zoom in, here is a better view of the 18z GEFS members

[Iceresistance]

After figuring out how to zoom in, here is a better view of the 18z GEFS members

Yeah, Member #12 has a foot of snow in Oklahoma & Texas from a single storm.

[Cpv17]

Growing confidence for a pretty strong front to move through here towards the end of next week. Still don’t really like what I see from the models yet. Probably need a better snowpack up north. Too much modification.

[Kingwood36]

Always the case down here..air modifies to quick here

[Cpv17]

Always the case down here..air modifies to quick here

Yeah especially when there’s not much of a snowpack over the central plain states.

[Stratton20]

I mean technically cant you still get wintry precipitation or a storm even with modified arctic air?

[Cpv17]

I mean technically cant you still get wintry precipitation or a storm even with modified arctic air?

Yes but it makes it a lot harder.

[Stratton20]

00z CMC shows a potential winter storm setup about 8 days from now fwiw

[Cpv17]

Well well well, the models have just gotten really interesting.