Srain, when it says the times in there, does that mean the additional data that they collected goes into the model at that time, or is it the next major run? Like if it says 16 drops at 0z, then is that data in the 0z model or the 12z?

Snook, TX, stolen from Facebook, and I think taken by a member of this very KHOU forum... http://fbcdn-sphotos-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/396746_10150536478323218_516248217_8861257_231019325_n.jpg Yep Ed I took that picture. Only about 15 minutes away from my place in College Station. Looks may...

When will all the recon data be in the models? 0z runs tonight?

0z GFS is crap! 12z run showed 1-2 inches of rain for SA and Austin next Wednesday and now the 0z shows less than .25 inch. Now that pisses me off! I was really looking forward to a good soaking beneficial rainfall event next week. Grrrrrrr.

I don't know about you guys, but I find the 12z models really depressing. The 0z CMC, Euro and GFS all agreed on around an inch of rain for SA and Austin on next Tuesday and now the 12zs show pretty much nothing. Man I am really depressed now. So much for starting 2012 rainfall on a good note. Sigh.

I agree Ptarmigan. I will be so happy when our drought finally ends!

Congrats tireman! You will do great!

I know it is almost impossible to predict this far out, but if I had to make a prediction on this I would say by January 2013 our drought will be pretty much over. I don't think there will be much improvement at all this winter with another La Nina event expected. Anyone else wanna take a stab at th...

wxman57 wrote:12Z GFS says no rain for the next week, at least.

Wxman, why do you always have to bring us bad news?
Also, I couldn't find the long range Nino forecast map that showed El Nino possibly returning in 2013. How do I find it from that link that you posted on here a few days ago?

Where did you find that map wxman? It isn't on the CPC site that I look at.
So I'm hopeful that El Nino will return the winter of 2012-2013 and it will be a wet winter then! Better than nothing.

Since tropical storms have been getting worn out by dry air, they will not be enough. We need subtropical jet from the Pacific to end the drought. They bring in moist air from the Pacific and over us. More of an El Nino pattern. When do you see El Nino returning? Winter of 2012-2013? That's when I'...

From this morning's Houston National Weather Service morning discussion: "DID YOU KNOW THAT THE NWS HAS NOT ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH OR FLASH FLOOD WARNING SINCE SEPT 7 2010? IT HAS BEEN A VERY DRY 12 MONTHS." All I got to say is wow. This drought makes me very depressed. I really hope i...

FWIW, 18z GFS shifted a bit left and it gives SE TX more rainfall. Of course it all depends on if the western side of Lee finally gets some convection.

I agree it is so depressing driving to work looking at all of the dead trees. I am just plain depressed at how many times it looks like rain is coming then nothing. What is it going to take to break this ridge? Our 'cool front' should break the ridge. What we'll need to watch is when that boundary ...

Howdy yall! Been lurking for a few days (back when it was looking good for rain here). I'm about as depressed as everyone else as I was really thinking that this could put a huge dent in our drought. Maybe we will get some rainbands tomorrow too?