Looks like widespread 2-5 inches across our area Sun-Tue. Not expecting anything remotely close to Harvey. Perhaps some brief street flooding at times, but that's about it. No hurricane threat.

Significant tropical development still looks unlikely. Models are in good agreement on widespread 2-4" rainfall totals across much of the the Texas coastal counties through next Tuesday morning. Can't rule out the disturbance developing a circulation before moving ashore, but this doesn't look ...

Regardless of what may or may not develop in the NW Caribbean late next week, I don't see it "threatening" us with any rainfall. Hot and dry to continue.

Took it. Interesting. Thanks, I thought it would be interesting, too. I saw someone tweet about a study of those term a few weeks ago, but not with respect to weather terms. We use such terms all the time in our forecasts, with our own interpretations of what they mean for our clients. That's why w...

So far, the perceptions by those on social media are matching up fairly closely to those by meteorologists.

We are conducting a survey on the perception of probability. What do terms like "Highly Likely", "Probably", or "We Doubt" mean to you in terms of a percentage chance of occurrence? There are about a dozen questions in the survey. We've been comparing the results from m...

Cold and rainy here on S. Padre Island this afternoon. About 68 degrees, windy, and raining as of 3pm.

Overnight ECMWF is even warmer - lows in the low 70s and highs in the mid 80s.

Today's 12Z Euro is 25 degrees warmer for S. Padre next Wed, up into the low 80s vs. a high in the upper 50s in the 00Z run. I like that a lot better.

I definitely don't like the Euro's forecast of a low in the upper 40s next Wednesday and a high in the upper 50s. Not good beach weather at all!

I've been monitoring the S. Padre weather for next week. Looks like lows in the low 70s and highs in the upper 70s. Possibly some rain on Wednesday as a cold front washes out over south TX. Water temps 75-77 degrees. You'll have to right-click on the image below and choose "view image" to ...

Alex got my plane ticket yesterday. I fly over to Harlingen at 10:55 on Tuesday and fly back at 1:20pm Saturday. I think Brian (Katdaddy) is on the same flight. Still not 100% sure I won't change my return flight to Sunday. April is a busy time for me, though.

Just heard from Alex Garcia down there that he wants me to present something at the conference. I plan on flying over Tuesday morning. Not sure if I'll fly back Saturday or Sunday. Could go fishing Saturday and take the dinner cruise that evening.

30 degrees in SW Houston this morning. Those low clouds that were just southwest of the city yesterday afternoon moved overhead and acted as a blanket.

This was supposed to be a "warmer/dryer," winter eh.... ;) I'll take the blame for that. I told everyone on the Storm2K forum last winter that since I had the winter of my dreams (warm and dry) that this winter would be very cold and icy across Texas to compensate them for a lack of winte...

The snow was always expected to end by around 6pm, so it's no surprise that we are seeing the precip taper off on radar.

Here's a movie of the snow and me in the sleet. Some of the flakes are large (nickle-sized). Nothing too heavy. Video is 144mb and may take a bit to load before it plays.

http://wxman57.com/images/Snow.MOV

http://wxman57.com/images/wxman.jpg

Snowflakes getting bigger now in Westbury (a few miles south of Bellaire). 26 degrees.

I left work early so that I wasn't trapped by Hobby Airport this afternoon. It's 26 degrees with a steady light sleet in SW Houston. Sleet is gathering at the base of our oak tree. Individual sleet pellets are rather small, as they're forming more from drizzle than light rain. No sign of any snowfla...

I left work early so that I wasn't trapped by Hobby Airport this afternoon. It's 26 degrees with a steady light sleet in SW Houston. Sleet is gathering at the base of our oak tree. Individual sleet pellets are rather small, as they're forming more from drizzle than light rain. No sign of any snowfla...