Live by the models, die by the models. Standby for the emotional swings of “omg it’s going to snow” to “it’s not gonna snow.” I’m guilty too.

Also, anecdotally speaking, I think the arctic front plows through here earlier than the models are showing. I’ve seen it too many times, especially a front being powered by a 1045+ high. After careful consideration and taking that into account, Brooks and I decided to undercut guidance significantl...

18z GFS coming in colder with a stronger high and a further west placement. Also looks to delay the front a bit until Saturday night or Sunday morning. The Chevron Houston Marathon looks very interesting. Difficult forecast.

With the GFS showing 3 inches of snow for the Houston area at hour 252, surprised this board isn’t a bit more active... ;) http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2019&model_mm=01&model_dd=13&model_init_hh=12&fhour=252&parameter...

I wouldn’t use the ECMWF verbatim. I’ve noticed over the last few weeks that the model is too cool with highs and lows. I do think a pair of freezes is likely next Sunday and Monday mornings but getting into the mid 20s may be tough unless that high settles in right over the top of us. Up until the ...

FWIW, the 12z Euro now keeps Dallas all rain with the icy mix northwest of the city (albeit not by much). It does give Dallas a brief, and I mean brief, shot at some very light snow on Thursday morning as the low departs. These models will continue to waffle back and forth over the coming days. We'l...

The 12z suite of models came in warmer and less robust with the winter weather. It was always going to be rain in Houston given the significant warm nose. I don't see much going into January either.

For what it's worth, February can be active with winter weather here so it's not over yet.

Here's a look at the 00z NAM still bullish on winter weather state wide. 00z GFS is another snoozer.

Hey guys, interesting few days ahead. Here's my thoughts on it. Still a watch and see. Looking at the Skew-T's, i'm not overly encouraged about winter weather here. Just not much in the way of dry air and the dewpoints just aren't as low as I'd like to see them. We'll see though! https://tinyurl.com...

I'm not very excited about the wintry weather chances here for Wednesday. I just don't think the dewpoints are going to be low enough to allow for much in the way of wet bulbing. I'll watch it but it looks like the profiles have warmed in recent model runs.

Anybody else paying attention to Friday morning? The GFS has been very persistent in a deep, cold upper-level low passing through north central Texas. I know the profiles are marginal here but I’m beginning to think that snowflakes, maybe a light snow shower may be possible around the region very ea...

The 18z FV3-GFS certainly raises an eyebrow for Christmas Day -- 384 hours out.

Greetings, y'all--been a while since I've posted. Couple of things: First, big shout out to Steve and Andrew for saving the board. We're so glad its got a new home and a beautiful face lift. It looks great! Second, would you guys mind giving me a follow on twitter? If you haven't followed me already...

Good afternoon, y'all! Well we've certainly gotten off to a rough start as far as the fall weather goes but if the latest 12z Euro has anything to say about it, Mother Nature may very well be sending us an apology front. Check out the forecast high temps at hour 204. There are a few reasons why I th...

Could be in for a repeat of this very same set up next weekend. MOS and other guidance may be way too warm. Anybody else LOVING this winter?

I think you're the only one excited lol. I've been through this waaaaaaay too many times and more likely than not the models will lose all of it shortly, hints why not a single person has posted about it. I got excited back in December when over 30 model runs in a row showed ice/snow for southeast T...

College Station officially came in at 15° but according to the NWS, 1 mile south of College Station, the temperature dropped to 11°.

Well I never understood the whole "warmer in La Nina, cooler in El Nino" thing. La Nina's tend to be drier which means more sunshine which means higher temps. El Nino is a wetter pattern, more clouds, less insolation, cooler temps. I get it. However it's been my experience that La Nina can...

Starting to snow at my place. My truck is invaded in ice

Here's the Winter Storm Warning. Those in the Golden Triangle, a Winter Weather Advisory is on the way for the entire area.