00Z's have started. I suspect the "night crew" will be active with severe and wintry in a couple of days...it IS "Trail Ride Season" you know... ;) Hour 24 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/00/fp1_024.shtml Hour 42 http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/...

FYI: HPC Updated the Final Extended again for what it is worth... EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 251 PM EST FRI FEB 19 2010 VALID 12Z MON FEB 22 2010 - 12Z FRI FEB 26 2010 12Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE STRONGLY CONVERGED ON THEIR PATTERN E OF T...

They offer a bonus from time to time on the ECMWF site. I'll keep an eye out in the days ahead. Longer Range shows a big Spring Storm.

Also will add the the Free Site for the ECMWF offered a little bonus freebie today. Precip Maps... Hour 96... http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/ee298/srainhoutx/0219201012ZECPrecipHour96North32Ame.gif Hour 108... http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/ee298/srainhoutx/0219201012ZECPrecipHour108North32...

HGX thoughts... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 311 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2010 .DISCUSSION... PCPN OVER THE GULF CONTINUING TO MOVE AWAY TO THE ESE THIS AFTER- NOON WITH SOME CLEARING NOTED OVER PARTS OF COASTAL SE TX. DEWPTS ALSO CONTINUING TO SLOWLY CREEP UP AS T...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 306 PM CST FRI FEB 19 2010 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-201100- MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN- HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS- ROCKWALL-KAU...

First hint of forecast changes from San Angelo... .LONG TERM... THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING AND PATH OF THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CALI...

Also will add the the Free Site for the ECMWF offered a little bonus freebie today. Precip Maps... Hour 96... http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/ee298/srainhoutx/0219201012ZECPrecipHour96North32Ame.gif Hour 108... http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/ee298/srainhoutx/0219201012ZECPrecipHour108North32A...

Updated Storm Tracks from HPC (19Z)...remember that it will change several times... http://i228.photobucket.com/albums/ee298/srainhoutx/0219201019ZStormTrackslowtrack_ense.gif We might explain that the chart you posted represents this weekend's low center, not the one that may produce snow in Texas...

Updated Storm Tracks from HPC (19Z)...remember that it will change several times...

HPC Final Extended Disco...there are changes in the wind... EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 230 PM EST THU FEB 18 2010 VALID 12Z SUN FEB 21 2010 - 12Z THU FEB 25 2010 THE MAIN PLAYERS IN THIS MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ACTIVE SUB...

No need to worry about the 'finer details' at this point, but I suspect that many folks N of I-10 will at least have a shot at seeing some wintry weather. We shall see.

Well the ECMWF is back to where it was before the hiccup. GFS has trended colder/wetter with a suggestion of wintry. The UKMET continues with what that model has been showing for several days. Confidence is slowly building that some wintry weather may in fact be in the future for next week.

Light snow with temps above freezing won't cut it for me. It just melts on contact. But when I lived in coastal New York, many of our snow storms happened with heavy snow and temps around 35ºF. If the snow is heavy enough, it'll stick. I haven't looked, can we get 6 hour liquid equivalents above 0....

Thankfully, the 12z GFS still looks the same as the 0z and 6z runs... It's time for the Euro to jump back on board! Yeah, 12z partially in. Shows a MUCH deeper system than 00Z Euro for Tue-Wed over Texas. Still shows temps above freezing here for the most part, though. I'll make a meteogram when th...

Morning e-mail from Jeff... After a warming trend this weekend…it will return to cold next week. Big differences continue in the extended with wide varying forecast solutions between liquid and frozen. Discussion: Will tackle the near term issues first and then make some attempt at next week althoug...

The updated Prelim Extended HPC Disco offers a descent explanation of all the issues... PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 855 AM EST FRI FEB 19 2010 VALID 12Z TUE FEB 23 2010 - 12Z FRI FEB 26 2010 UPDATED PRELIM PROGS MADE ONLY COSMETI...

We will need to keep an eye on the Pacific NW as well as the W Coast this weekend as the system approaches. The concern has been that the Upper Air Pattern may under cut the W Canadian Ridge and create a more zonal type flow (warmer). While the GFS has certainly trended in the right direction to a w...

I cheated, AccuWx.com PPV, we should see about an inch worth of snow, and it should be snow, but temps about 2º C above freezing suggest not much accumulation. And what have the MOS and MAV guidance offered all season? Always lower the closer to the event. QPF is a question mark at this point. Plen...

Now this is interesting...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _120.shtml

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _126.shtml