Search found 830 matches
- Wed Aug 23, 2023 11:40 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 78171
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Even if something develops , I expect this to be a eastern gulf/ florida threat, this upper level pattern will not allow a system to come to texas with the trough that is coming down out of the SE, due to franklin If troughing is as modeled, you are probably correct, but let's be clear - we're curr...
- Tue Aug 22, 2023 3:10 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 78171
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
weatherguy425 how would franklin effect troughing? Position, strength, etc. could all impact troughing and vice versa. A good discussion, below. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2023/08/22/tuesday-harold-makes-landfall-in-texas-franklin-a-flooding-threat-to-caribbean/ Euro shows the monsoonal t...
- Tue Aug 22, 2023 1:42 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 78171
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Position, strength, etc. could all impact troughing and vice versa. A good discussion, below.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/20 ... caribbean/
- Tue Aug 22, 2023 1:33 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 78171
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Yeah the upper air pattern doesnt look favorable for a texas landfall if anything forms in the western caribbean, trough digging down from the SE would yank whatever tries to form down there towards florida, Yeah. More like an October pattern instead of late August, weird. Yes, because the summer h...
- Tue Aug 22, 2023 1:23 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 78171
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Yeah the upper air pattern doesnt look favorable for a texas landfall if anything forms in the western caribbean, trough digging down from the SE would yank whatever tries to form down there towards florida, Yeah. More like an October pattern instead of late August, weird. Yes, because the summer h...
- Tue Aug 22, 2023 1:22 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 78171
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Looking ahead - stronger ECMWF and EPS support for a system developing in the BOC/western Caribbean. Steering will be complicated. As of now if something does form down there, it doesn’t really look like a threat to Texas. Less ensemble member support for Texas now, but who knows, that’s still kind...
- Tue Aug 22, 2023 9:56 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 78171
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Looking ahead - stronger ECMWF and EPS support for a system developing in the BOC/western Caribbean. Steering will be complicated.
- Tue Aug 22, 2023 9:48 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: August 2023
- Replies: 744
- Views: 78232
- Tue Aug 22, 2023 9:45 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 78171
- Mon Aug 21, 2023 9:06 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 78171
- Mon Aug 21, 2023 3:34 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 78171
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
weatherguy425 ah nvm it looks like the guidance just tries to spin something up in the caribbean instead of bringing in a system from the pacific, we will see Just keep an eye on the BOC, southern Gulf and western Caribbean. As said before, there is a lot of persistent storminess modeled by most gu...
- Mon Aug 21, 2023 3:28 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 78171
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
There is no true Pacific crossover modeled on the 12Z ECMWF operational run.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 21, 2023 3:23 pm Euro has the pacific crossover occuring in about 4 days or so, CMC ensembles showing it, GEFS some as well, steering pattern looks very complicated though
- Mon Aug 21, 2023 11:43 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 78171
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
That would imply a tropical storm in a typical pressure-wind relationship. That said, there has been a bit of an uptick toward moderate or strong tropical storm status on today’s 12z run.
- Mon Aug 21, 2023 11:11 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: August 2023
- Replies: 744
- Views: 78232
Re: August 2023
I don't believe the NWS current forecast of 60% chance of rain with thunderstorms likely for Brazoria County. Of course Charlie Brown doesn't run at the football till later tonight. Plenty of time for Lucy to yank it. 60% = scattered. There will probably be scattered passing downpours across Brazor...
- Mon Aug 21, 2023 11:10 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: August 2023
- Replies: 744
- Views: 78232
Re: August 2023
The drought is pretty extensive throughout extreme southeast Texas and southern Louisiana. KIAH had a wet April and May before the really hot and dry stuff kicked in. Yep, when it was wet in the Houston metro area around May and on and off in June,the Golden Triangle was getting dry slotted. Am I c...
- Mon Aug 21, 2023 10:04 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: August 2023
- Replies: 744
- Views: 78232
Re: August 2023
The drought is pretty extensive throughout extreme southeast Texas and southern Louisiana. KIAH had a wet April and May before the really hot and dry stuff kicked in.
- Mon Aug 21, 2023 9:47 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 78171
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Need to watch the potential crossover system this weekend… ^^ Even if a singular entity doesn’t survive the trek, most guidance favors lower pressures and persistent storminess in the BOC/Western Caribbean. Even if something does come of it wouldn't that heat dome block it from gaining latitude and...
- Mon Aug 21, 2023 9:42 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 78171
- Sun Aug 20, 2023 8:51 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 78171
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
It truly is demoralizing to see a system make landfall to the south of us with so much moisture, absolutely depressing At least someone in Texas is getting some much needed rain,we're all in this together. ;) Exactly.... and it takes a chip at the drought. We can be choosers, right now. Plenty of h...
- Sun Aug 20, 2023 4:40 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 78171
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Yep 91L is become better defined and its definitely organizing a bit quicker than current model guidance Actually, it is falling - mostly - in line with what models have suggested. Slow, but steady, consolidation over the next 36 hours on its trip westward or west-northwestward. How stoing it gets ...