Search found 830 matches

by weatherguy425
Wed Aug 23, 2023 11:40 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Replies: 817
Views: 78171

Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

Even if something develops , I expect this to be a eastern gulf/ florida threat, this upper level pattern will not allow a system to come to texas with the trough that is coming down out of the SE, due to franklin If troughing is as modeled, you are probably correct, but let's be clear - we're curr...
by weatherguy425
Tue Aug 22, 2023 3:10 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Replies: 817
Views: 78171

Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

weatherguy425 how would franklin effect troughing? Position, strength, etc. could all impact troughing and vice versa. A good discussion, below. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2023/08/22/tuesday-harold-makes-landfall-in-texas-franklin-a-flooding-threat-to-caribbean/ Euro shows the monsoonal t...
by weatherguy425
Tue Aug 22, 2023 1:42 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Replies: 817
Views: 78171

Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

Stratton20 wrote: Tue Aug 22, 2023 1:38 pm weatherguy425 how would franklin effect troughing?
Position, strength, etc. could all impact troughing and vice versa. A good discussion, below.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/20 ... caribbean/
by weatherguy425
Tue Aug 22, 2023 1:33 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Replies: 817
Views: 78171

Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

Yeah the upper air pattern doesnt look favorable for a texas landfall if anything forms in the western caribbean, trough digging down from the SE would yank whatever tries to form down there towards florida, Yeah. More like an October pattern instead of late August, weird. Yes, because the summer h...
by weatherguy425
Tue Aug 22, 2023 1:23 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Replies: 817
Views: 78171

Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

Yeah the upper air pattern doesnt look favorable for a texas landfall if anything forms in the western caribbean, trough digging down from the SE would yank whatever tries to form down there towards florida, Yeah. More like an October pattern instead of late August, weird. Yes, because the summer h...
by weatherguy425
Tue Aug 22, 2023 1:22 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Replies: 817
Views: 78171

Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

Looking ahead - stronger ECMWF and EPS support for a system developing in the BOC/western Caribbean. Steering will be complicated. As of now if something does form down there, it doesn’t really look like a threat to Texas. Less ensemble member support for Texas now, but who knows, that’s still kind...
by weatherguy425
Tue Aug 22, 2023 9:56 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Replies: 817
Views: 78171

Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

Looking ahead - stronger ECMWF and EPS support for a system developing in the BOC/western Caribbean. Steering will be complicated.
by weatherguy425
Tue Aug 22, 2023 9:48 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2023
Replies: 744
Views: 78232

Re: August 2023

Cromagnum wrote: Tue Aug 22, 2023 9:44 am One tiny little shower early this morning at the house. Got the driveway wet and knocked the dust down. Hoping for more but not optimistic.
A few very efficient rain producers out there. Best chance of scattered rain may actually occur after landfall.
by weatherguy425
Tue Aug 22, 2023 9:45 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Replies: 817
Views: 78171

Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

Cpv17 wrote: Mon Aug 21, 2023 8:19 pm The GEFS continues to not be too enthused about development in the western Caribbean/BOC. The EPS looks a bit more promising but even on there it’s not too strong of a signal.
Yeah, signal isn’t strong, but pattern in general is worth watching.
by weatherguy425
Mon Aug 21, 2023 9:06 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Replies: 817
Views: 78171

Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

Cpv17 wrote: Mon Aug 21, 2023 8:19 pm The GEFS continues to not be too enthused about development in the western Caribbean/BOC. The EPS looks a bit more promising but even on there it’s not too strong of a signal.
Glad we also have rain *possibilities moving in from the north, east. ;)
by weatherguy425
Mon Aug 21, 2023 3:34 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Replies: 817
Views: 78171

Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

weatherguy425 ah nvm it looks like the guidance just tries to spin something up in the caribbean instead of bringing in a system from the pacific, we will see Just keep an eye on the BOC, southern Gulf and western Caribbean. As said before, there is a lot of persistent storminess modeled by most gu...
by weatherguy425
Mon Aug 21, 2023 3:28 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Replies: 817
Views: 78171

Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

Stratton20 wrote: Mon Aug 21, 2023 3:23 pm Euro has the pacific crossover occuring in about 4 days or so, CMC ensembles showing it, GEFS some as well, steering pattern looks very complicated though
There is no true Pacific crossover modeled on the 12Z ECMWF operational run.
by weatherguy425
Mon Aug 21, 2023 11:43 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Replies: 817
Views: 78171

Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

Stratton20 wrote: Mon Aug 21, 2023 11:19 am GFS has this getting down to 993 mb lol
That would imply a tropical storm in a typical pressure-wind relationship. That said, there has been a bit of an uptick toward moderate or strong tropical storm status on today’s 12z run.
by weatherguy425
Mon Aug 21, 2023 11:11 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2023
Replies: 744
Views: 78232

Re: August 2023

I don't believe the NWS current forecast of 60% chance of rain with thunderstorms likely for Brazoria County. Of course Charlie Brown doesn't run at the football till later tonight. Plenty of time for Lucy to yank it. 60% = scattered. There will probably be scattered passing downpours across Brazor...
by weatherguy425
Mon Aug 21, 2023 11:10 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2023
Replies: 744
Views: 78232

Re: August 2023

The drought is pretty extensive throughout extreme southeast Texas and southern Louisiana. KIAH had a wet April and May before the really hot and dry stuff kicked in. Yep, when it was wet in the Houston metro area around May and on and off in June,the Golden Triangle was getting dry slotted. Am I c...
by weatherguy425
Mon Aug 21, 2023 10:04 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: August 2023
Replies: 744
Views: 78232

Re: August 2023

Cromagnum wrote: Mon Aug 21, 2023 10:00 am Are things really that bad in Beaumont? You guys banked a ton of rain earlier in the season when the rest of us didnt get crap.
The drought is pretty extensive throughout extreme southeast Texas and southern Louisiana. KIAH had a wet April and May before the really hot and dry stuff kicked in.
by weatherguy425
Mon Aug 21, 2023 9:47 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Replies: 817
Views: 78171

Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

Need to watch the potential crossover system this weekend… ^^ Even if a singular entity doesn’t survive the trek, most guidance favors lower pressures and persistent storminess in the BOC/Western Caribbean. Even if something does come of it wouldn't that heat dome block it from gaining latitude and...
by weatherguy425
Mon Aug 21, 2023 9:42 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Replies: 817
Views: 78171

Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

mcheer23 wrote: Mon Aug 21, 2023 9:36 am Need to watch the potential crossover system this weekend…
^^ Even if a singular entity doesn’t survive the trek, most guidance favors lower pressures and persistent storminess in the BOC/Western Caribbean.
by weatherguy425
Sun Aug 20, 2023 8:51 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Replies: 817
Views: 78171

Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

It truly is demoralizing to see a system make landfall to the south of us with so much moisture, absolutely depressing At least someone in Texas is getting some much needed rain,we're all in this together. ;) Exactly.... and it takes a chip at the drought. We can be choosers, right now. Plenty of h...
by weatherguy425
Sun Aug 20, 2023 4:40 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
Replies: 817
Views: 78171

Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion

Yep 91L is become better defined and its definitely organizing a bit quicker than current model guidance Actually, it is falling - mostly - in line with what models have suggested. Slow, but steady, consolidation over the next 36 hours on its trip westward or west-northwestward. How stoing it gets ...