Search found 739 matches

by Belmer
Sun Feb 14, 2021 5:53 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins
Replies: 2374
Views: 703695

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Been raining off and on for the last few hours and now lightly sleeting. All the trees and vegetation are becoming very stiff with a thin glaze of ice forming on them. You can hear the icy noise in the wind when the branches are hitting one another. I'm right off of I-10 & 99 in Katy and right a...
by Belmer
Sun Feb 14, 2021 5:20 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins
Replies: 2374
Views: 703695

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Is it just me or does it look like the system out near Dallas looks like it's hauling butt down here faster that forecast? Is that our system or is it the low out in New Mexico spinning? Our main energy will be coming out of Mexico as large scale lift from the trough and the developing surface coas...
by Belmer
Sun Feb 14, 2021 5:03 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins
Replies: 2374
Views: 703695

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

What time is the main player suppose to push through? FZRA and sleet will continue off and on across the region through midnight. Sometime after midnight precip should begin transitioning to snow from west to east and be moving out of our region around mid morning. If you're wanting to catch some s...
by Belmer
Sun Feb 14, 2021 5:00 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins
Replies: 2374
Views: 703695

Re: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Winter Storm Warning ⚠️

Center Point Energy beginning to report power outage where the freezing rain has been occurring. Look for coverage to expand as freezing rain begins to fill in more over into Houston this evening. You can follow updates here: https://www.centerpointenergy.com/en-us/residential/services/electric-util...
by Belmer
Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:18 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins
Replies: 2374
Views: 703695

Re: February 2021

00z Icon, Canadian and GFS are just absolutely bonkers. Talk about consistency in the short-medium range with such extreme temps/snow/ice. Heck, CMC says let's keep the party going into next Wednesday and Thursday. I know the idea of this may be exciting for those who like to see the extremes, but t...
by Belmer
Tue Feb 09, 2021 6:14 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins
Replies: 2374
Views: 703695

Re: February 2021

How much snow is the 18z GFS depicting for the city of Houston on Monday? Oh, boy. Be careful with that map. That wouldn't be snow as that indicates. GFS shows a warm nose from 900 to ~700mb during the passage of that shortwave on Monday. Which any precip falling would be sleet/freezing rain as the...
by Belmer
Tue Feb 09, 2021 6:05 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins
Replies: 2374
Views: 703695

Re: February 2021

The Houston nws office has always been anti cold and anti frozen precip. They wont admit to it until it actually happens. Watch,, a winter storm watch will be needed and they will hold,hold,hold, off until the very last possible second. That's not how they work at all. I know a few of the forecaste...
by Belmer
Mon Feb 01, 2021 3:38 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: February 2021: Arctic Outbreak/Warmup Begins
Replies: 2374
Views: 703695

Re: February 2021

I think the ridging over the pacific may be too flat.As there is a lack of blocking over Alaska. That is partly correct, yes. I'm not going to be able to post for a little while as I have a busy schedule coming up. So thought I would post some pretty pictures to maybe help explain what the GFS is s...
by Belmer
Mon Jan 11, 2021 11:51 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2021
Replies: 809
Views: 241097

Re: January 2021

Be aware of a possibility of Freezing Fog tomorrow morning mainly N of I-10. If it develops, travel troubles particularly on elevated roads could be an issue. I dont believe I've ever dealt with freezing fog down here. Although the air is the cold, is it just because the ground is saturated with sl...
by Belmer
Mon Jan 11, 2021 2:21 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2021
Replies: 809
Views: 241097

Re: January 2021

Next Sunday looks very similar to this storm. We’ll see what happens. I think this one was a huge let down across the board. The GFS and Euro definitely scored big. One thing that surprised me is at my house it went from rain, to all sleet to all snow for 5 minutes and then back to rain and stayed ...
by Belmer
Sun Jan 10, 2021 1:20 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2021
Replies: 809
Views: 241097

Re: January 2021

I am signing off tonight and may not be on much tomorrow unfortunately as I'll be tied up. Nonetheless, here is the latest update from HGX. Hmmm... Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 1043 PM CST Sat Jan 9 2021 .UPDATE... Hi-res models continue to arrive increasing...
by Belmer
Sun Jan 10, 2021 12:49 am
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2021
Replies: 809
Views: 241097

Re: January 2021

00z Euro says lets hop onto the southern trend.. ;) Poor Dallas folks. While I hope we see some snow (the only thing daytime highs in the 30s are good for), I feel for them as it was looking like a blockbuster event up there for them. Unfortunately the ULL is further south and west by a notch and th...
by Belmer
Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:07 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2021
Replies: 809
Views: 241097

Re: January 2021

When you mention the possibility of heavy wet snow for “Houston,” are you referring to the city itself or other areas outside city limits like Cypress, Tomball, etc? The images I posted was about a ~40 mile diameter center plotted in downtown Houston depicting the thermal profile with a saturated l...
by Belmer
Sat Jan 09, 2021 10:16 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2021
Replies: 809
Views: 241097

Re: January 2021

00z GFS is intriguing. If it were to verify, Houston could briefly see some heavy wet snow between 6-9pm before we start drying out. I've also been following the ULL since it moved onto the west coast and going back and comparing to the model suites. It seems to continue digging a bit further south ...
by Belmer
Fri Jan 08, 2021 10:35 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2021
Replies: 809
Views: 241097

Re: January 2021

Why is herzog pushing this so hard? I guess he isnt looking at the nam or he is being conservative and waiting to see what tomorrow shows...he did say "we will see how this map changes in the coming days" I personally don't see anything wrong with it. Travis likes to keep generally the sa...
by Belmer
Wed Jan 06, 2021 1:41 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2021
Replies: 809
Views: 241097

Re: January 2021

Meanwhile, SE Texas is under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 7pm.... We sure are - URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 100 PM CST Wed Jan 6 2021 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for...
by Belmer
Tue Jan 05, 2021 11:02 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2021
Replies: 809
Views: 241097

Re: January 2021

If the 00z GFS were to verify, it would be a cold rain mixed with snow, especially if you're north of I-10. Temperatures below freezing down to around 950-960mb (~2000 ft). With a below freezing and a saturated lower-mid level column, wet-bulbing would likely help cool the surface down enough for so...
by Belmer
Tue Jan 05, 2021 9:27 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2021
Replies: 809
Views: 241097

Re: January 2021

My hunch is the SPC will upgrade parts of SETX into a slight risk category tomorrow. Damaging winds (60+ mph) look to be the main threat as the thunderstorms move through along the front. For those that go into work, stay weather aware as it will likely roll through near rush hour tomorrow evening. ...
by Belmer
Tue Jan 05, 2021 7:24 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2021
Replies: 809
Views: 241097

Re: January 2021

How does all of this look for Colorado Springs for 9th-13th? My daughter will be there. Thanks. Tell your daughter to bundle up as the first day will likely be the coldest. Temperatures will struggle to get above freezing with some snow showers throughout the day, maybe totaling 1-2" before mo...
by Belmer
Fri Jan 01, 2021 7:06 pm
Forum: Weather Forum
Topic: January 2021
Replies: 809
Views: 241097

Re: January 2021

Question...my daughter will be going to Colorado Springs from Jan 10-15. Can anyone look into their crystal ball and see what she may expect there..snow chances....etc....i know its still a ways off though...thanks! Looked at all four runs of today's GFS since it gets into that extended timeframe. ...