srainhoutx wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 9:56 pm Thanks Gang! You all are awesome!!

Thanks for dropping in Srain!

Any thoughts on the upcoming week?

Donated

Meso models really wanting to intensify precip over us.


On a side note, current wind chill in Kalispell js -31.

I’ve heard stories of 73 and 77-78 winters. My father played a football playoff game in heavy snow in 1977. I kinda remember, vaguely, the ‘83 December and I certainly remember ‘85 and ‘89.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 8:22 pm Who was around here in '97 for the massive SE TX ice storm? That was about as bad as its gotten around here.

I was visiting a close friend in CS that storm. What a storm .

National Blend is what they are using for your area and they will do that until they see the airmass in the states on Saturday.

Coastal counties are always a rough forecast in the Winter. Too many variables at play versus inland counties.

brazoriatx wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 4:03 pm So r we counting on the sbj to give us precip? I thought we were watching a disturbance south of Alaska or something a cpl days ago?

It’s 2 separate things. Mexico can always bring us surprises.

You know MoCo, this is going to be a tricky forecast and will give the NWS fits all the way until the event. Because P Type events are so hard to predict in our area, they will be guzzling the Pepto Bismol on this. This is a now cast forecast. Completely dry or a 1/2 inch of ice wouldn’t surprise m...

don wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 3:40 pm 18Z NAM with frozen precip breaking out Sunday night.

That’s STJ driven precip wringing into cold air

looks like the 18z NAM is coming in a bit faster than its 12z run, also much more aggressive with widespread freezing rain/ sleet I go below freezing between 9z and 12z Sunday. I stay there per the NAM. I expect it will be colder than what NAM shows. NAM typically is pretty good within 36 hours and...

How is it possible for the Freeze line not to be in SE Texas by Sunday Evening? ABC13 has a high of 46 this day. With the north wind that can’t be possible. If they are going by the GFS model, it is too warm High is in the morning. Ironically, while both the CMC and ICON have been the two coldest m...

I think you’re setting yourself up to get burned. Looks like a break between air masses. I would agree with Jason. Onshore/SE winds can warm things up from the Gulf rather quickly ( right now, for example. LOL) Yeah just a couple of days ago, putting up a high of 77 here today would’ve sounded abso...

The models, especially the GFS show another arctic front on the heels of this one with another system potentially in play,, those 60’s are way too warm, I dont foresee us getting warmer than the low 40’s even beyond this arctic snap I think you’re setting yourself up to get burned. Looks like a bre...

Mmmmmhmmmm Traders agree with me too. This isn’t a December ‘22 Is this leaning more toward 2021? It’s different from 2021, no doubt. This reminds me a bit more of the mid 70s and mid 80s. Could we bottom out bad? Yeah, but that would have to be from over performing precip. It’s not going to happen...

walsean1 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 12:37 pm How is it possible for the Freeze line not to be in SE Texas by Sunday Evening? ABC13 has a high of 46 this day. With the north wind that can’t be possible. If they are going by the GFS model, it is too warm

High is in the morning.

Natty futures have been on the rise for the last week or so when the models were hinting a potential outbreak. Only put part of the kids inheritance on some contracts. :) Miss the old days when there weren't so many hedge funds and banks that didn't employ traders that specifically followed longer ...

Nat Gas now up 5%

Major differences between the NAM and GFS with the frontal passage. The NAM has the freeze line almost to the I-59 corridor by Sunday evening.While at the same time the GFS has temps in the 50's and 60's.This is because the GFS stalls the front, we've seen the GFS do this time and time again with s...

February 24 futures are up 4% today.

Mmmmmhmmmm Traders agree with me too. This isn’t a December ‘22 Spill the beans man! Usually when we approach (within 3 days) of a quick Arctic shot, Nat gas starts moving back down as the warm up is priced in. That is not happening on the futures market. Winter Natty is so much fun to follow and t...