Wxman, what does it do with the ridge off the CA coast after hour 324? I would think that if it became established there it would allow a some-what persistent trough to develop in the Central US, favoring a more southerly push to an future cold air invasions?

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-b ... ntry/60229

^ Some one posted this on another forum. Quite the interesting read and video.

Depressing to see the GFS start to gain a little bit of consistency in it's medium range. Seems that a persistent eastern U.S. trough may develop leaving us (Texas) largely spared by any cold air intrusions. Editing to add that later in the run even colder air builds in western/central Canada with a...

Hahahaahaha! 000 FXUS64 KLUB 250516 AAB AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 1116 PM CST SAT DEC 24 2011 NOTE...AVIATION AFD IS BELOW. .UPDATE... TWAS THE NIGHT BEFORE CHRISTMAS AT LEAST FOR A BIT MORE... AND WE HAVE BEEN WATCHING THE SNOW FALL OUTSIDE THE DO...

Models have already messed up... I wasn't expecting precipitation to begin until late tomorrow afternoon..... looks like that may be wrong. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 942 PM CST SAT DEC 3 2011 .UPDATE... HAVE MADE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST R...

Excited for the Monday threat! My AMS meeting should be interesting on Monday... weather nerds unite!

Yeah, and it looks like some mighty cold air will be in place if that second disturbance does in fact come to fruition.

Srain, I know I'm up here in Lubbock now... but I was wondering if I could have your take on the weather in my area. Models have been showing quite a winter storm , at time the GFS was showing accumulations of 6+ inches. The past couple runs have trended further north with the disturbance though... ...

Storms definitely getting their act together. Watch for damaging winds in bowing segments as well as rotation in notches between cells.

People are posting some damage pictures on facebook (from kingwood), so far only tree damage.

If only the pattern wasn't so progressive. The GFS has the brunt of the air mass moving east before it even gets a chance to settle in. Though, the GFS is infamous for being too quick with cold air masses.

12z GFS is back to digging it a little deeper, looks like central Colorado.

Yeah, srain. Earlier runs of the GFS were shopwing the potential for a mix precip event in lubbock!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4DC11rep5Es

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=woFN7rNlpCk

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1S135cVQPd4

I can verify those gusts! Some videos of the dust storm that blew through!

Looks like the disturbance is in Brazoria County and moving north... may halt the eastward progression of this MSC... hopefully rain for a little while longer!

I think you mean 2002

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/2002atlan.shtml

Just finished my first week of school up her in Lubbock. I went through my first dust storm the other day, and these high based thunderstorms are something else! Hopefully as winter approaches I could supply some "upstream data" during shallow arctic air intrusions

Impact Weather: Mostly dry conditions will unfortunately build back over the region through the middle of the week as upper level high pressure strengthens back over the region. Temperatures through Wednesday are forecast to range from 100 to 103 degrees over northern and western Harris County to 98...

Not feeling too confident that the NE side will even see a drop from Don! Hopefully we can atleast get some home grown thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon.

An even further shift to the east? But there appears to be more of a spread. All I know is that I'm hoping a Cuba/ Yucatan land interaction can broaden this sucker out! The last thing we need on the Northeast side of Houston is for the southwest side to get dumped on! ;) http://euler.atmos.colostate...