I don't see any indications it's 'bombing' right now but it's clearly a different storm than the 10pm advisory.

Recon is turning around and we will quickly find out of there's a pressure drop. I'm guessing they are doing another pass so soon before coming out with a special advisory.

Be a little crazy but there might be justification for a special advisory.

Even I'm a little taken aback by this new set of obs.

Kingwood36 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:38 pm

Scott747 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:36 pm Potential new center looks to be 24.4 96.1

How does that effect the track?

Potentially a little further up the coast than the current track.

Whoa! There are some strong obs in this pass.

Potential new center looks to be 24.4 96.1

The GFS, HWRF and the experimental hurricane ensembles have been showing a scenario of another reformation and a potential shift up the coast.

I don't think the shifting is done...

Scott747 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 10:12 pm Recon peaked up to the ne and didn't find anything and now they are headed up further to the n where the biggest blow up of convection is.

Definitely believe there is a reformation of the center much further n. Hence the reason why the watch was extended to Freeport.

Hurricane watch extended to Freeport

TS warning to High Island

TS watch to Sabine Pass

Looking a little more interesting further n....

Recon peaked up to the ne and didn't find anything and now they are headed up further to the n where the biggest blow up of convection is.

Scott747 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 12, 2021 9:18 pm Recon is doing an unusual flight pattern trying to fix a center. Surprised they haven't headed to the ne to investigate that area.

Recon is back ne. Not sure if they are back to their normal flight pattern or trying to fix another potential center. Not much down by the area from earlier.

Recon is doing an unusual flight pattern trying to fix a center. Surprised they haven't headed to the ne to investigate that area.

Well let the 'center' argument commence! Cause it looks like there is going to be a few of them.

Does make the GFS and HWRF pinball movement believable while a dominant center eventually consolidates.

Well the early part of the recon mission isn't very convincing. Suspect we may be bickering about center 'reformations' throughout the mission.

18z HWRF landfall is almost identical to the 12z. Just 9 hrs quicker and 15 mbs weaker.

After seeing the early stages of the HWRF.... Along with the GFS they are both 'reforming' or having a dominant center take hold further to the E after about 12 hrs. Otherwise they would be tracking closer to what the 12 Euro had. We could see a landfall nearer Jamaica Beach at this rate Overall it...

After seeing the early stages of the HWRF....

Along with the GFS they are both 'reforming' or having a dominant center take hold further to the E after about 12 hrs. Otherwise they would be tracking closer to what the 12 Euro had.

Also despite all the bashing of the GFS and praise of the Euro.... The NHC for now is siding with the GFS and HWRF. Hence the reason for the hurricane watch. I’ve noticed the Euro does pretty well on track but not so much on strength. The GFS has done better in that department imo. There was some s...

Welp. The GFS is bouncing around like a ping pong ball. Looks like the 12z Euro one minute and switches back to the previous GFS runs.