Search found 154 matches
- Mon Dec 18, 2023 12:05 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: December 2023
- Replies: 320
- Views: 31193
Re: December 2023
Yeah and it’s about to start fading away. Neutral conditions will be here by late spring. I don’t this El Niño has quite peaked just yet and fully coupled with the atmosphere yet. Yes Neutral and eventually La Niña are just over the horizon especially for the 2nd half of 2024. But there’s still ple...
- Mon Dec 18, 2023 1:27 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: December 2023
- Replies: 320
- Views: 31193
Re: December 2023
Has El Nino peaked yet or not? Yeah and it’s about to start fading away. Neutral conditions will be here by late spring. I don’t this El Niño has quite peaked just yet and fully coupled with the atmosphere yet. Yes Neutral and eventually La Niña are just over the horizon especially for the 2nd half...
- Thu Dec 14, 2023 11:56 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: December 2023
- Replies: 320
- Views: 31193
Re: December 2023
Hey everyone! It has been a while, but I am back! The fall semester is over and I am officially 3 semesters away from earning my bachelor's degree in meteorology now! Glad to see that the weather pattern has finally become more progressive for the South. The drought was absolutely horrible for area...
- Tue Nov 28, 2023 10:02 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: November 2023
- Replies: 442
- Views: 33221
Re: November 2023
That's a lot of pure streamwise vorticity in that forecasted 00Z NAM 3K Hodograph
- Fri Sep 08, 2023 2:34 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: September 2023
- Replies: 626
- Views: 71398
Re: September 2023
The 9/8 00Z HRRR sounding for 7:00pm shows some elevated CAPE which may lead to some isolated severe thunderstorms with strong wind gusts and a few microbursts across the area if the cap can be broken during peak heating hours on Friday evening…
- Fri Sep 08, 2023 2:19 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: September 2023
- Replies: 626
- Views: 71398
Re: September 2023
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CDT Fri Sep 08 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN VIRGINIA INTO SOUTHWEST MAINE...AND FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND SABINE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thun...
- Fri Sep 08, 2023 2:00 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: September 2023
- Replies: 626
- Views: 71398
Re: September 2023
A little off topic. Hurricane Lee is now a Category 5 hurricane. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT3+shtml/080251.shtml 373 WTNT33 KNHC 080251 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023 ...LEE BECOMES A CA...
- Tue Aug 22, 2023 1:30 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
- Replies: 817
- Views: 79755
Re: 2023 Hurricane Season Discussion
BULLETIN Tropical Storm Harold Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092023 100 AM CDT Tue Aug 22 2023 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM... ...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS BEGINNING LATER THIS MORNING... SUMM...
- Sun Aug 20, 2023 8:47 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: August 2023
- Replies: 744
- Views: 79689
Re: August 2023
Unfortunately, the mid to long range 00Z GFS run continues with the idea that our hottest stretch of the year will be the last week or so of August. It depicts the heat ridge settling in over the Central & Southern Plains while circulating very dry air into our region from the northeast. Let th...
- Sun Aug 20, 2023 6:22 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: August 2023
- Replies: 744
- Views: 79689
Re: August 2023
Southern California has a lot going on right now...
- Wed Aug 16, 2023 1:32 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: August 2023
- Replies: 744
- Views: 79689
Re: August 2023
On a positive note, the -PDO in the Eastern Pacific I’ve been harping about all year continues to shrink and is slowly taking on a more +PDO orientation with time. This, in conjunction with a prominent El Niño should theoretically work in our favor in the long term regarding rainfall potential begin...
- Wed Aug 16, 2023 1:16 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: August 2023
- Replies: 744
- Views: 79689
Re: August 2023
Unfortunately, the mid to long range 00Z GFS run continues with the idea that our hottest stretch of the year will be the last week or so of August. It depicts the heat ridge settling in over the Central & Southern Plains while circulating very dry air into our region from the northeast. Let the...
- Tue Aug 15, 2023 10:25 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: August 2023
- Replies: 744
- Views: 79689
Re: August 2023
The heat is made worse probably as a result of all of those tropical systems the model has going north along the east coast. Not really, because if you analyze the profiles upstream from SETX, or to the northeast of our region (the winds in the lower and mid-levels are coming from the NE on our sou...
- Tue Aug 15, 2023 9:26 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: August 2023
- Replies: 744
- Views: 79689
Re: August 2023
I'm not sure what's up with this latest 18Z GFS run but it is forecasting some of the hottest temperatures SE TX has seen all year the final week of August. Very disturbing forecast even if it's incorrect, considering just how brutal this summer has been to us. I'm just glad this GFS forecast is way...
- Fri Jul 28, 2023 4:18 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: July 2023
- Replies: 478
- Views: 66048
Re: July 2023
Just depressing - Lindner Sometimes, I do think the models overextend patterns/have biases. The +PDO/El Nino base states are supposedly already coming in based on what the S2K guys state: if that really is true, the the depictions of stuck ridging over Texas cannot be accurate. If you’re referring ...
- Sat Jul 01, 2023 8:48 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: July 2023
- Replies: 478
- Views: 66048
Re: July 2023
For those worried about rainfall prospects, this afternoon’s GFS 18Z run comes to the rescue and brings SE Texas some relief from the heat in 336 hours…
- Fri Jun 02, 2023 6:52 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: June 2023
- Replies: 626
- Views: 84011
Re: June 2023
I just noticed the 90-Day SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) has dropped down to -7.05 as of today. With this 90-Day value, we should be officially within El Niño range now.
- Sun May 14, 2023 6:00 am
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: May 2023
- Replies: 593
- Views: 87959
Re: May 2023
482 FXUS64 KHGX 140922 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 422 AM CDT Sun May 14 2023 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday Night) Issued at 415 AM CDT Sun May 14 2023 The Flood Watch has been expanded northe...
- Sat May 13, 2023 11:47 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: May 2023
- Replies: 593
- Views: 87959
Re: May 2023
What jumps out at me with some of the latest mesoscale models forecasted 48hr QPF totals is the low accumulations over Central TX, South Central TX, and The TX Big Bend areas…The same areas that were forecasted to receive some fairly healthy rainfall amounts earlier in the week and just a day or two...
- Sat May 13, 2023 4:20 pm
- Forum: Weather Forum
- Topic: May 2023
- Replies: 593
- Views: 87959
Re: May 2023
Holy -SOI! 4 days in a row with -20 or lower values! 90-Day is now negative. I think once the Southern Oscillation Index 90 Day Value drops down to around -7.0 and below then we will officially have an El Niño. My only long term concern is a few of the long range climate models have ENSO values dro...