Two things I’m concerned about regarding any winter weather. One is the southeast ridge poking its head in here, which the models keep showing off and on. Two, the ridging is too far southwest of Alaska for any type of significant cold. Yeah it gets cold but nothing significant or even close to it (...

The CPC finally shows us getting some above average QPF! About time. SOI is crashing. Great sign!

what makes yall think this next batch of siberian air could be worse? I’m wondering the same thing. I don’t really see anything on the ensembles through 384 hours that would suggest anything other than maybe upper 20’s or low 30’s for lows. The ridging needs to be over Alaska and NW Canada and into...

Models are looking more and more interesting after the 20th. Not only are they showing a colder pattern setting up but also a stormy pattern with an active subtropical jet. I’ve been seeing a lot about the SOI crashing the past few days or so but when I look at the models I still don’t see much QPF...

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Wed Jan 11, 2023 9:09 pm

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 11, 2023 4:42 pm DoctorMu yep, those folks need a long break from the rain

Weird for a La Nina winter, but La Nina winters do have a weird streak.

The thing I like about La Niñas is they can offer up some extremes. Can’t really get that during a Niño.

The GEFS looks good past the 20th! The EPS has some improving to do but it’s not bad either.

I’m seeing a good amount of support for some colder temps once we get past the 20th but mainly more so after the 25th.

Davis Mills didn't want them to draft his potential replacement in the draft with first pick. The pick went to Lovies former team! All I can think of! Cypress Creek near my place went up about 12 or so feet overnight. Nice little system for me. Me personally, this was Lovies way of flicking off the...

Well the Texans just took stupid to a whole new level today. Lovie will have gotten his revenge on Houston if they end up firing him.

Picked up a quarter inch last night. Yep, yawn. No big changes with the weather till possibly after the 20th. And that’s far out so not buying it yet.

snowman65 wrote: ↑Sun Jan 08, 2023 11:29 am Feels pring has sprung, I believe.

Nope. It’s called a January thaw. Pretty common occurrence.

Katy area is about to get smacked!

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 8:45 pm Is that line going to move through the area or stay up to the north?

Just go on Tropical Tidbits and look at the HRRR model. Will tell you pretty much everything you’ll need to know.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Sat Jan 07, 2023 1:32 pm Rain looks iffy. Probably a bust. That's fine with me.

A sunny and mild (lower DP) after that. Also, fine.

It looks like a war east, cooler west battle until later in the month...

It’s going to rain overnight. Not much of a chance during the day.

Winter will come back. We’re in La Niña. This is how they work. One extreme to the other.

Ensembles are now looking much better after the 20th.

I’m continuing to see more support of the California firehose to turn off in about 2-3 weeks. Good sign.

Cpv17 it does look like the GFS is starting to break it down at around hour 200-240 ish, a reconfiguration of the Jet Stream occurs Sometimes you can scroll through Twitter and find some good reads. Sounds to me like a -EPO might be returning late January/early Feb. If that’s the case I hope the AO...

Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Thu Jan 05, 2023 9:43 pm When I see warm water off the coast of Alaska, it generally favors negative East Pacific Oscillation (EPO).

I agree. The pattern doesn’t make sense to me.

Cpv17 what im not fully understanding is how models are showing the MJO going back into phase 8 which is a cold phase for us and the eastern US, but yet the ensembles and global models continue to show nothing but above normal weather over the next several weeks, im not sure what to believe It’s co...

The SSWE is hype, its not happening, ensembles look bleak, January as a whole looks like a complete garbage can of a month for weather, this weather pattern sucks, operational models look boring, sigh I wouldn’t give up on winter yet. Late January or February can still produce. Models can flip on a...